DFS

Packers vs. Eagles Sunday Night DFS Preview

Jalen Hurts Eagles vs. Colts

The Packers have lost six of their last seven games and have scored under 20 points in three of their last four games. The Packers are a run-first team that depends on the deep ball in the passing game. With a loss, they will need to win out for a shot at the postseason. 

The Eagles bulked up their defensive line last week with some veteran interior defensive linemen and ended up holding the Colts under 100 yards rushing. However the passing game has struggled in recent weeks, and in the last two, Jalen Hurts has thrown for under 200 yards. The loss of Dallas Goedert has played a big part in the lack of a passing game, and the Eagles will need a third player to step it up in the passing game.

If you haven’t already checked it out, we have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found in the link below!

DraftKings: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draftkings-rostership-projections/
FanDuel: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-fanduel-rostership-projections/ 

Vegas Line: Eagles -7

Over/Under: 45

Notable Injuries:

Packers: IR: DL Rashan Gary, CB Eric Stokes; OUT: WR Romeo Doubs; DOUBTFUL: LB De’Vondre Campbell; QUESTIONABLE: OT David Bakhtiari

Eagles: IR: TE Dallas Goedert, DE Derek Barnett, DT Jordan Davis, CB Avonte Maddox

Data to Know Provided by TruMedia

Packers Offense vs. Eagles Defense

  • Aaron Rodgers averages 6.8 yards per attempt, 7.9 air yards per attempt, and has a 5.1% pass touchdown rate.
  • The Eagles give up 5.8 yards per attempt, 7.3 air yards per attempt, and a 2.8% pass touchdown rate.
  • The Eagles run a lot of zone coverage, keeping two safeties back and don’t blitz.
  • Rodgers against zone coverage averages 6.6 yards per attempt, 7.1 air yards per attempt, and a 2.6% pass touchdown rate.
  • Against zone coverage, the two main targets have been Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan
  • Cobb leads the team with an average of 2.6 yards per route run against zone coverage.
  • Allen Lazard and Christian Watson average less than 1.2 yards per route against zone coverage and over 2.0 yards per route against man coverage.
  • Maddox was the slot corner for the Eagles, and I’d expect the Packers to utilize Cobb in attacking the replacement.
  • The Eagles’ secondary has struggled against tight ends and has been elite against every other alignment.
  • Marcedes Lewis and Josiah Deguara are the other tight ends who have seen some snaps for the Packers..
  • In the run game, you have Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
  • Jones had double Dillon’s carries off of an ankle injury and had six receptions in the passing game.
  • With how the Eagles utilize coverages, I expect a lot of targets toward Jones.
  • Dillon played 48% of the snaps last week but is not getting the workload needed to be a productive fantasy running back.
  • The Eagles have had a bad run defense, but it showed up with the new pieces they added last week.

Eagles Offense vs. Packers Defense

  • Jalen Hurts averages 8.3 yards per attempt, 7.5 air yards per attempt, and a 5.2% pass touchdown rate.
  • The Packers give up 7.2 yards per attempt, 6.8 air yards per attempt, and a 5.2% pass touchdown rate.
  • The Packers blitz and play a lot of zone coverage.
  • Against zone coverage, Hurts averages 8.5 yards per attempt, 7.5 air yards per attempt, and a 2.2% pass touchdown rate.
  • Against a blitz, Hurts averages 7.5 yards per attempt, 6.4 air yards per attempt, and a 6.4% pass touchdown rate.
  • A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the only active players with over a 10% target share against zone or the blitz this season.
  • Brown averages more yards per route but gets targeted less against zone coverage or a blitz.
  • Jack Stoll is the Dallas Goedert replacement, as he ran a route on 73.3% of dropbacks last weekend.
  • Quez Watkins shares the wide receiver three role in the offense with Zach Pascal.
  • The Packers have struggled against out wide receivers and in the slot.
  • Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith play out wide in this offense.
  • The run game for the Eagles has been led by Miles Sanders all year long, with Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell getting backup duties.
  • The Packers held the Titans under 100 yards rushing but gave up over 100 yards in the seven straight beforehand.
  • Hurts is always a threat for goal-line rushing touchdowns and has had six or more carries in three straight games.

Overall Thoughts

Critically, the loss of Dallas Goedert has kept the safeties split out for teams and has allowed more attention to go to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. For that to change, Jack Stoll will have to find a way to work the middle of the field, and without De’Vondre Campbell, he will have an advantage in the middle of the field. The Eagles were held under 20 points for the first time this season last week, but I don’t believe the Packers can replicate the performance of the Colts. 

More importantly, the Packers desperately need a win to stay afloat in the NFC and will need to run the ball effectively. The additions the Eagles made will make it difficult to do that effectively, and it’ll be up to Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan to move the ball down the field. Christian Watson’s athleticism has been unlocked in the red zone, and his long speed is difficult to defend. The Eagles are committed to the two high safety schemes, so any deep shot will likely be a contested catch.

Multiplier Pool

  • QB Jalen Hurts
  • WR A.J. Brown
  • RB Aaron Jones
  • RB Miles Sanders
  • WR DeVonta Smith
  • WR Randall Cobb

FLEX Pool

  • QB Aaron Rodgers
  • WR Christian Watson
  • DST Eagles
  • TE Robert Tonyan
  • K Jake Elliott
  • K Mason Crosby
  • DST Packers
  • TE Jack Stoll
  • TE Josiah Deguara
Scroll to the Top