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This weekend’s main slate lasts two days, so late swapping will benefit those who utilize players from Sunday’s games. I have a Divisional Coverage primer that you should look at because this piece will reference a lot of data from that piece. There are many ways to get unique on this week’s main slate and leverage spots at certain price ranges. I will be looking to flip the script with some of my builds based on the popularity of the expensive quarterbacks.
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Stack: QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert
The week of rest couldn’t have been more important to any playoff team with Hurts’ shoulder injury. A fully healthy Jalen Hurts can put up big numbers against the Giants, and there’s a blueprint to put up big numbers on them. Dallas Goedert has to watch the film of T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews and be ready to win in man-coverage situations.
A.J. Brown is the No. 1 receiver in the NFL against man coverage. However, Martindale has his former Titans teammate in Adoree’ Jackson, and I think they will have a good game plan for this matchup. DeVonta Smith is also a top wide receiver against man coverage, and I think being looked at as a second option in this game will allow him to work freely. I don’t believe I want to run it back in this game because of how good this Eagles’ defense is and how the Giants can utilize multiple wide receivers.
Stack: QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones
Runback: TE Travis Kelce
The Jaguars-Chiefs game features the highest point total on the entire slate, and Trevor Lawrence isn’t projected to be one of the most popular quarterbacks on the slate. When Lawrence gets man coverage, who he targets has been relatively consistent week-to-week, and it’s Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Since Week 10, Lawrence saw a high man coverage rate against the Chiefs, Lions, Titans, and Cowboys. During that span of weeks, Kirk had a 33.3% target share, with Jones at 29.6%, and with the game flow, I believe it’s the spot for the Jaguars to find success. The Chiefs are one of three teams to give up 20 or more touchdowns to wide receivers this year, and these two wide receivers combine for a 55.8% target share.
Travis Kelce has had 90 yards receiving in six straight playoff matchups and has scored in five of the last six games. All of these team’s games planned to slow down Kelce and couldn’t find any success, and I don’t expect that to change here. The Chiefs have a wide receiver rotation that I don’t plan on trying to guess in tournaments because I think the number of players they utilize will limit the upside of breaking the slate with the value at wide receiver this week. Kadarius Toney is the one Chiefs wide receiver I would bet on, and if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated, I have no interest in this running back room.
I’m not single stacking this week.
WR Tee Higgins, WR Gabriel Davis
Greg Jennings believes we could see Tre’Davious White shadow with Ja’Marr Chase, and with three starting offensive linemen, I think Joe Burrow throws Tee Higgins’ way in contested coverage. Higgins has been the best player against Cover 3 coverage, and with the Bills’ struggles against the run, I think we see plenty of that coverage for Higgins to exploit.
Gabriel Davis will get Eli Apple in this matchup, and Stefon Diggs will deal with bracketed coverages. Davis has to win in his matchup against the Bills for this offense to find success and score points. Last weekend, Demarcus Robinson was able to win deep on Apple, and Davis will have plenty of film on the matchup to be able to replicate that double move.
RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR CeeDee Lamb
Christian McCaffrey is a chess piece that Dan Quinn has not seen Kyle Shanahan have on his board before, and he will need to get going if they want to slow down the pass rush. Mike Martz believes that the Cowboys are weak in their interior defensive line and that McCaffrey can exploit that area of the field.
Brandon Aiyuk is a lethal route runner and the 49ers’ pass catcher that can get the job done down the field against the Cowboys’ secondary. Aiyuk is the down-the-field threat with Brock Purdy, and I believe he will continue that trend in this matchup.
The Cowboys should be looking at the Davante Adams film against the 49ers and getting every bit of the route combinations he ran for CeeDee Lamb to get free against the 49ers. The 49ers’ weakest point is the slot, and Lamb will frequently align in that area. The 49ers’ primary coverages also bode well for Lamb because he has a high target rate against them, with Dak Prescott as the starter.
Divisional Round DFS Player Pool
|Player||Pos||Team||Opp||DK Salary||FD Salary||VegasPts|
|Jalen Hurts||QB||PHI||vs NYG||$7,600||$9,000||27.5|
|Trevor Lawrence||QB||JAC||@ KC||$6,000||$7,600||22.5|
|Christian McCaffrey||RB||SF||vs DAL||$8,000||$9,200||25|
|Saquon Barkley||RB||NYG||@ PHI||$7,900||$8,500||20.5|
|Joe Mixon||RB||CIN||@ BUF||$6,500||$7,700||21.75|
|Travis Etienne||RB||JAC||@ KC||$6,400||$6,800||22.5|
|Tony Pollard||RB||DAL||@ SF||$6,100||$7,100||21|
|Jerick McKinnon||RB||KC||vs JAC||$6,000||$7,000||30.5|
|Miles Sanders||RB||PHI||vs NYG||$5,700||$7,200||27.5|
|James Cook||RB||BUF||vs CIN||$4,800||$5,800||26.75|
|Eli Mitchell||RB||SF||vs DAL||$4,700||$5,400||25|
|A.J. Brown||WR||PHI||vs NYG||$7,600||$8,300||27.5|
|CeeDee Lamb||WR||DAL||@ SF||$7,300||$7,800||21|
|DeVonta Smith||WR||PHI||vs NYG||$7,200||$7,400||27.5|
|Christian Kirk||WR||JAC||@ KC||$6,000||$7,600||22.5|
|Deebo Samuel||WR||SF||vs DAL||$5,900||$7,100||25|
|Tee Higgins||WR||CIN||@ BUF||$5,800||$7,000||21.75|
|Brandon Aiyuk||WR||SF||vs DAL||$5,000||$6,500||25|
|Gabriel Davis||WR||BUF||vs CIN||$4,800||$6,600||26.75|
|Zay Jones||WR||JAC||@ KC||$4,700||$6,500||22.5|
|Kadarius Toney||WR||KC||vs JAC||$4,100||$5,800||30.5|
|Michael Gallup||WR||DAL||@ SF||$3,800||$5,700||21|
|Isaiah McKenzie||WR||BUF||vs CIN||$3,300||$5,100||26.75|
|T.Y. Hilton||WR||DAL||@ SF||$3,200||$5,000||21|
|Travis Kelce||TE||KC||vs JAC||$7,700||$8,000||30.5|
|George Kittle||TE||SF||vs DAL||$5,700||$7,100||25|
|Dallas Goedert||TE||PHI||vs NYG||$4,500||$6,300||27.5|
|Dalton Schultz||TE||DAL||@ SF||$4,200||$6,400||21|
|Hayden Hurst||TE||CIN||@ BUF||$3,200||$5,000||21.75|