DFS

NFL Week 18 DFS Two-Game Saturday Slate

If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.

Two-game slates force a player to be close to perfect, and the normal rules do not exist. Play three pass catchers with one quarterback, two running backs from the same team or a player against your defense. This one has a big price gap between the top of their positions and the secondary players, giving us an easy way to the top at each position.

 

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Chiefs vs. Raiders

Passing Game

Chiefs

  • The Chiefs are playing for the No. 1 seed in the conference and a first-round bye in the playoffs.
  • I expect the Raiders to utilize a lot of Cover 1 coverage, forcing the Chiefs’ wide receivers to beat them in man coverage.
  • Against Cover 1, Patrick Mahomes completes 55.4% of his passes, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and has an 8-4 touchdown rate on the season.
  • The Raiders are amongst the four teams to hold Mahomes under seven yards per attempt in a single game this season.
  • The Chargers were also one of those teams and Mahomes averaged 9.7 yards per attempt in their second matchup.
  • The Raiders get beat in the slot and the Chiefs will deploy multiple players in that alignment.
  • Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and Travis Kelce are the top three players in targets per route run from the slot and yards per route run.
  • Mecole Hardman was activated off IR this week and ran 57% of his routes from the slot position.
  • Reid said that Hardman could be on a pitch count for this game but was already a player running a limited amount of routes.
  • With Moore out, Toney will see an uptick in routes, but I do not expect that to surpass 50%.
  • Hardman had over 70 yards receiving in their first matchup against the Raiders.
  • Kelce caught seven passes for 25 yards and four touchdowns in their first matchup.
  • I do not anticipate a multiple-touchdown game, but I expect Kelce to have higher yardage than the first matchup.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a full-time receiver and sees work in the slot. 
  • The Raiders have given up big plays from the slot player running deep routes and the three players that match: Kelce, Valdes-Scantling and Hardman.

Raiders

  • Jarrett Stidham ran the offense great, and this matchup bodes well for him.
  • The Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that has given up over 30 passing touchdowns this season and the main coverages he will see are Cover 1 and Cover 2.
  • Stidham’s sample size is too small to utilize stats from, but we can look at what players have found success against the Chiefs.
  • They have given up the 5th most passing touchdowns to tight ends and the most fantasy points to slot tight ends.
  • Darren Waller is back and will split into the slot, which is a mismatch.
  • The Chiefs have given up 12 passing touchdowns on vertical routes, post routes, and corner routes.
  • Waller has the team’s highest rate of these routes and Davante Adams gets targeted most frequently.
  • The Raiders will stick to their top two players and utilize them heavily in this game.

Rushing Attack

Chiefs

  • The backfield of the Chiefs is down to two players, Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon.
  • The Raiders have given up the eighth most rushing touchdowns and the third most receptions to running backs.
  • Both players will see work with Pacheco taking the majority of rushing attempts and McKinnon getting all the passing game work.
  • McKinnon has found the endzone as a pass catcher in recent weeks, but this game will be more on Pacheco as he gets more usage in a Gap running scheme, which the Raiders struggle against.

Raiders

  • Josh Jacobs will be the bell cow running back in this one but is dealing with plenty of injuries.
  • Paying attention to Zamir White being an active player will be important to see how serious it is and whether he would be a fade in this matchup.
  • Brandon Bolden is the primary backup, but if Jacobs can’t go, it will become a split with Bolden, Ameer Abdullah, and White.
  • The Chiefs have given up 4.4 yards per carry and the most receptions to running backs this season.
  • Abdullah will be the back to go for if Jacobs is out because he has run a decent amount of routes and gets targeted when he does.

 

Titans vs. Jaguars

Passing Game

Titans

  • Josh Dobbs is another small sample quarterback, but he looked comfortable throwing the ball in his first start.
  • Derrick Henry will be the main game plan for as long as possible, but with play-action, Dobbs will have opportunities to find players down the field.
  • Treylon Burks, Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Austin Hooper were the primary route runners in Dobbs’ first start.
  • Nine players have had over 80 yards receiving against this Jaguars secondary and it’s been on 20 plus yard throws.
  • 23 percent of Burks’ targets are over 20 yards down the field, and he is the most talented player in this receiving group.
  • Burks is dealing with a groin injury, and the player that’s second on the team in big plays is Westbrook-Ikhine, who was not a factor in Dobbs’ first start.
  • The passing offense of the Titans doesn’t have much to offer, but there will be opportunities for a few deep plays off of play action.

 

Jaguars

  • The Titans have 13 defensive players out for this game, three questionable, but they get back Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons.
  • Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the game at scheming up his defense and even without all those players, I expect him to put up a fight.
  • The Titans have run over 20% Cover 2 in a select few games, but I anticipate this one to be the new wrinkle to the game plan.
  • Trevor Lawrence averages 5.4 yards per attempt against Cover 2 with zero touchdowns and two interceptions.
  • Evan Engram had 162 yards in the first matchup and will be the key player again against this coverage.
  • Engram gets targeted on 26.1% of his routes against Cover 2 and leads the team in yards per route.
  • Christian Kirk has been the go-to for Lawrence when he gets man coverage and if the Jaguars can run the ball well with Travis Etienne, Kirk will get man-to-man matchups.
  • Zay Jones has been the best player against zone coverages and had a great game against the Titans in the first matchup.
  • Between the top two wide receivers, I’d expect Jones to have the bigger game if they trail early on and Kirk to have the bigger game if they take the lead early.
  • Vrabel will come with some exotic looks and play the game slow on offense which depreciates the total in this one.

Rushing Attack

Titans

  • Derrick Henry will see 20 touches in the first half of this game.
  • He has run for over 100 yards in four of his last five games against the Jaguars and has scored eight touchdowns during this span.
  • I would not be fading him in this one.

Jaguars

  • Travis Etienne will get over 15 carries in this game and see some work as a pass catcher.
  • The problem is that the Titans have allowed 3.4 yards per carry and with 15 carries, there’s not much to love about him.
  • I also expect Lawrence to be utilized on the ground in the red zone because his size is better in that area of the field.
  • The Titans have allowed the sixth most receptions to running backs and with the exotic coverages, we may see Lawrence check it down more to Etienne.

Player Pool

Player Pos Team Opp DK Salary FD Salary VegasPts
Patrick Mahomes QB KC @ LV $8,400 $9,500 30.75
Jarrett Stidham QB LV vs KC $5,400 $7,000 21.75
Derrick Henry RB TEN @ JAC $8,000 $9,500 16.75
Josh Jacobs RB LV vs KC $7,400 $9,000 21.75
Travis Etienne RB JAC vs TEN $6,700 $7,300 22.75
Jerick McKinnon RB KC @ LV $6,300 $7,700 30.75
Isiah Pacheco RB KC @ LV $5,600 $6,500 30.75
Ameer Abdullah RB LV vs KC $4,200 $4,700 21.75
Brandon Bolden RB LV vs KC $4,000 $5,000 21.75
Davante Adams WR LV vs KC $8,800 $9,100 21.75
Christian Kirk WR JAC vs TEN $6,200 $7,500 22.75
Zay Jones WR JAC vs TEN $5,000 $6,600 22.75
Treylon Burks WR TEN @ JAC $4,200 $6,400 16.75
Kadarius Toney WR KC @ LV $4,000 $6,000 30.75
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC @ LV $3,900 $5,400 30.75
Mecole Hardman WR KC @ LV $3,700 $5,500 30.75
Marvin Jones WR JAC vs TEN $3,600 $5,500 22.75
Nick Westbrook WR TEN @ JAC $3,300 $5,200 16.75
Travis Kelce TE KC @ LV $7,900 $8,200 30.75
Evan Engram TE JAC vs TEN $4,500 $5,800 22.75
Darren Waller TE LV vs KC $4,400 $6,000 21.75
Austin Hooper TE TEN @ JAC $2,700 $4,800 16.75
Jaguars DST JAC vs TEN $3,400 $4,700 16.75
Chiefs DST KC @ LV $3,200 $4,400 21.75
Titans DST TEN @ JAC $2,800 $3,800 22.75
Raiders DST LV vs KC $2,200 $3,000 30.75

 

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