Below we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
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Runback: RB Brian Robinson Jr.
Watson has not been the same quarterback this season; however, the more experience he gets, the more I expect him to improve. He’s also had to deal with harsh weather conditions in a few of his starts this season, but in this game, the weather shouldn’t be a factor.
The Browns have also been eliminated from playoff contention, so they will likely want to use the opportunity to work on their passing offense. The Commanders have been one of the best teams in the NFL at defending wide receivers lined up out wide but one of the worst at defending slot receivers. Cooper and Peoples-Jones have gotten plenty of routes from the slot position, as the Browns have utilized a lot of three-wide receiver sets with David Bell. This stack has a massive ceiling at a low cost and a high leverage spot.
The Browns’ secondary has improved recently, but their run defense has been awful. The Browns have allowed five teams to run for over 130 yards in their last seven games. Antonio Gibson is out, and Robinson has impressed in recent weeks having over 100 yards in three of the last four games. Robinson is a chalky running back this week but will be unique with a Watson double stack.
Runback: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
The Lions haven’t played less than 40% man coverage since Week 8, and Fields, against a team playing 40% or more man coverage, has run for 60 or more yards in all four games.
This includes a 147-yard rushing game against the Lions and a 178-yard rushing game against the Dolphins. At the price of Fields, I am searching for the 100-yard rushing bonus, and this is another game for him to get close to that.
Claypool practiced in a limited fashion this week, and slot receivers have performed every week against the Lions. Claypool will be the primary slot player and has the upside for a big game in this matchup. The Lions allow ten yards per attempt against slot receivers this season, which is the most in the NFL.
Against the Bears’ primary coverages, St.Brown gets targeted on 31.1% target of his routes and averages 3.01 yards per route. The Bears are also the third-worst team in the NFL at defending the slot, giving up 9.2 yards per attempt. The Lions’ secondary wide receivers are in play here, but St.Brown is the clear favorite in this matchup.
The Buccaneers have run Cover 3 at over a 45% rate this year. With Sam Darnold as the starting quarterback, Moore has a 33% target share against that coverage and averages 2.34 yards per route run.
The Buccaneers have four key secondary players dealing with an injury, and Carlton Davis is not expected to play. The Panthers’ run game has been the focal point, but Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles is one of the best at stopping the run, and I expect the Panthers to need throws to Moore to help out the run game.
Jaycee Horn suffered a broken wrist and is out for this game, which tells me the Panthers will need to play with two safeties deep not to get beat down the field. That will allow Fournette room to work, and in a playoff game, I expect him to be the main player. Fournette had 29 touches last weekend, nine receptions for 90 yards and 20 carries for 72 yards. Tom Brady will rely heavily on Fournette, and at home as favorites, I expect him to have a big workload.
Doug Pederson isn’t resting his players. Against the Texans’ primary coverages, it will be Evan Engram running the show. The Texans run a Tampa 2, and when you play against it, you will want to hit the middle of the field between the safeties, where Engram will dominate. Engram had six receptions in their first matchup for 69 yards, and in this matchup, I expect him to exceed those totals.
Cooks was targeted nine times in the Texans’ win against the Titans, and in his career, he averages 103.5 yards receiving against the Jaguars. When the Jaguars have faced off against players that get targeted heavily, they give up big games, and at his price, Cooks does not need to do much.
The Giants clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Colts. The Trenches tool gives the Giants the f0urth-highest advantage in the running game of any team. I am expecting the Giants to give him a full playoff-level workload, knowing the following week, they can rest him for a game that could not mean anything. Barkley hasn’t hit the 100-yard rushing bonus since Week 10, and I expect him to get it done in this matchup.
The Seahawks have allowed the highest yards per reception to RBs, and are one of the best in the NFL at limiting wide receivers. Knight is the main running back in the Jets’ offense and has been the lead back in four of the last five games. With QB Mike White starting, he averaged 20 touches a game with 99.4 yards per game.
Aiyuk is one of the best players in the NFL at defeating man coverage, averaging 2.86 yards per attempt, and has a 30% target share in a crowded offense. Brock Purdy found a rhythm with him last week, and I expect that to continue in this matchup, where they will have the ball often, with Jarrett Stidham being the Raiders’ starting QB.
DraftKings priced the best defense in football against Jarrett Stidham at $2,900. The 49ers are the chalk defense of the week, rightfully so, with their pass rush and the matchup.
The Jets’ defense gets Mike White back as their starter, and they are taking on a Seattle team that has struggled in recent weeks. The Jets mimic a lot of what the 49ers do, and the Seahawks have had no answer for that style of defense. Tyler Lockett is back in the lineup; however, he isn’t far removed from the surgery.
Amongst players with at least 60 passing attempts, Teddy Bridgewater has been sacked at the sixth-highest rate at 8.8% of his dropbacks and has been pressured on the most. The Dolphins have struggled without Tua Tagovailoa, and I do not anticipate that changing here.
Since Week 7, the Packers have forced a turnover in every game they have played, and the Vikings have turned it over in seven of their past nine games. Kirk Cousins gets pressured on 21 dropbacks per game, and if they start trailing, the Packers’ pass rush will be able to get home.
|Player||Pos||Team||Opp||DK Salary||FD Salary||VegasPts|
|Justin Fields||QB||CHI||@ DET||$7,900||$8,400||23.25|
|Deshaun Watson||QB||CLE||@ WAS||$5,800||$6,700||19.75|
|Saquon Barkley||RB||NYG||vs IND||$8,000||$9,200||21.75|
|James Conner||RB||ARI||@ ATL||$7,200||$8,000||18|
|Aaron Jones||RB||GB||vs MIN||$7,100||$7,600||25.75|
|Dalvin Cook||RB||MIN||@ GB||$7,000||$8,300||22.75|
|David Montgomery||RB||CHI||@ DET||$6,900||$7,500||23.25|
|Alvin Kamara||RB||NO||@ PHI||$6,900||$7,300||18.25|
|Rhamondre Stevenson||RB||NE||vs MIA||$6,800||$7,000||21.75|
|Travis Etienne||RB||JAC||@ HOU||$6,400||$7,700||23.25|
|Cam Akers||RB||LAR||@ LAC||$6,100||$7,200||18.25|
|D’Onta Foreman||RB||CAR||@ TB||$5,700||$6,500||18.75|
|Leonard Fournette||RB||TB||vs CAR||$5,600||$7,000||21.75|
|Tyler Allgeier||RB||ATL||vs ARI||$5,300||$6,700||23|
|D’Andre Swift||RB||DET||vs CHI||$5,300||$7,100||29.25|
|Brian Robinson||RB||WAS||vs CLE||$5,200||$6,900||20.75|
|Bam Knight||RB||NYJ||@ SEA||$5,100||$6,400||21.75|
|Tyreek Hill||WR||MIA||@ NE||$8,900||$9,000||19.75|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||WR||DET||vs CHI||$7,800||$8,200||29.25|
|DeVonta Smith||WR||PHI||vs NO||$7,100||$7,800||23.25|
|Chris Godwin||WR||TB||vs CAR||$6,800||$7,600||21.75|
|Mike Evans||WR||TB||vs CAR||$6,500||$7,500||21.75|
|Jerry Jeudy||WR||DEN||@ KC||$6,400||$7,000||16.25|
|Brandon Aiyuk||WR||SF||@ LV||$6,300||$6,600||25.75|
|Chris Olave||WR||NO||@ PHI||$6,100||$6,800||18.25|
|Terry McLaurin||WR||WAS||vs CLE||$6,100||$7,400||20.75|
|Christian Watson||WR||GB||vs MIN||$5,900||$7,600||25.75|
|Amari Cooper||WR||CLE||@ WAS||$5,800||$7,100||19.75|
|DJ Moore||WR||CAR||@ TB||$5,700||$7,000||18.75|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster||WR||KC||vs DEN||$5,600||$6,800||28.25|
|Allen Lazard||WR||GB||vs MIN||$5,400||$6,200||25.75|
|Adam Thielen||WR||MIN||@ GB||$5,200||$6,300||22.75|
|Courtland Sutton||WR||DEN||@ KC||$5,100||$6,800||16.25|
|Jakobi Meyers||WR||NE||vs MIA||$5,000||$6,700||21.75|
|Drake London||WR||ATL||vs ARI||$4,900||$6,700||23|
|Brandin Cooks||WR||HOU||vs JAC||$4,800||$6,400||20.25|
|Donovan Peoples-Jones||WR||CLE||@ WAS||$4,700||$6,500||19.75|
|Romeo Doubs||WR||GB||vs MIN||$4,700||$5,900||25.75|
|K.J. Osborn||WR||MIN||@ GB||$4,600||$5,900||22.75|
|Jahan Dotson||WR||WAS||vs CLE||$4,600||$6,100||20.75|
|Chase Claypool||WR||CHI||@ DET||$4,500||$5,700||23.25|
|Curtis Samuel||WR||WAS||vs CLE||$4,400||$5,900||20.75|
|D.J. Chark||WR||DET||vs CHI||$4,300||$6,000||29.25|
|Van Jefferson||WR||LAR||@ LAC||$4,000||$6,100||18.25|
|Rashid Shaheed||WR||NO||@ PHI||$4,000||$5,600||18.25|
|Dante Pettis||WR||CHI||@ DET||$3,700||$5,200||23.25|
|Terrace Marshall Jr.||WR||CAR||@ TB||$3,600||$5,600||18.75|
|Tutu Atwell||WR||LAR||@ LAC||$3,600||$5,300||18.25|
|Byron Pringle||WR||CHI||@ DET||$3,500||$5,400||23.25|
|Kendrick Bourne||WR||NE||vs MIA||$3,500||$5,600||21.75|
|David Bell||WR||CLE||@ WAS||$3,000||$4,900||19.75|
|George Kittle||TE||SF||@ LV||$5,900||$7,400||25.75|
|Tyler Higbee||TE||LAR||@ LAC||$4,600||$6,100||18.25|
|Cole Kmet||TE||CHI||@ DET||$4,500||$5,300||23.25|
|Evan Engram||TE||JAC||@ HOU||$4,400||$5,800||23.25|
|David Njoku||TE||CLE||@ WAS||$4,100||$5,600||19.75|
|Tyler Conklin||TE||NYJ||@ SEA||$2,900||$4,900||21.75|
|Jelani Woods||TE||IND||@ NYG||$2,800||$4,700||16.75|
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