Fantasy
11/25/22
3 min read
Load Up on Kansas City, Dolphins Among Your Week 12 DFS Targets
Our DVOA-adjusted pass and run game rankings are back for Week 12!
Overcome your tryptophan-induced coma, break out yesterday’s unfinished pumpkin pie, and get ready for the “leftover” 13 NFL games!
Last week, we hit on the Chiefs, Bengals, Chargers, and 49ers passing attacks (highlighting Travis Kelce, Tee Higgins, and George Kittle successfully). We also foresaw Justin Fields, Devin Singletary and Antonio Gibson having great rushing matchups, as well as correctly fading the run games of the Cardinals, Rams, Texans, Packers.
This week we will skip over the Thursday games that are on our list in order to focus on Sunday.
Passing Game Targets
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is "Him." The Rams… aren’t? L.A. has given up on the season, and the Chiefs are not ones to show mercy. Since the Rams' defense is second in rush EPA, load up on Mahomes and company in the passing game. Kelce, Skyy Moore, and whoever else is healthy.
Buffalo Bills - Thursday game
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa is gifted the pitiable Texans' defense ranked 24th vs WR, 30th in yards per game, and 26th in net yards per pass attempt. The only downside is that Houston is also 29th in rush EPA, so all facets of the Dolphins' attack are legitimate. Jaylen Waddle would be my focus, as an 80% out-wide WR facing the 29th ranked non-slot WR defense.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals find themselves in a similar boat as Kansas City, facing Tennessee’s stiff rush defense (first) and a lax pass defense (30th against non-slot WR). Load up on Tee Higgins again!
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith should continue his career resurgence playing the lowly Raiders. Las Vegas’ defense is abysmal against slot WRs (32nd) and cannot sack or intercept QBs if their lives depended on it (32nd and 31st, respectively). Load up on Tyler Lockett (35.8% slot) and Marquise Goodwin (48.9% slot).
Los Angeles Chargers
Who is better, Tua or Justin Herbert? The source of much controversy, I think that they are both awesome franchise QBs. This week, Herbert’s Chargers get to face a Kliff Kingsbury team after Nov. 1, so play Chargers with impunity. If Gerald Everett is healthy, remember that we always play our TEs vs Arizona (32nd vs. TE). The Cardinals are allowing the second-most points per game in the league and are just not very good.
Passing game fades: Bears, Panthers, Falcons
Rushing game targets
Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders and Konami-code QB Jalen Hurts play a Packers defense ranked 27th against the run, in a game where both teams will probably be running a ton.
Dallas Cowboys - Thursday game
Buffalo Bills - Thursday game
Chicago Bears
Justin Fields will ruin your David Montgomery shares, so proceed with caution. The Jets are actually quite a good defense, ranking 10th in rush EPA, so I would lean toward fading this game.
Miami Dolphins
Jeff Wilson came in and made an immediate impact after his trade to Miami. I trust that he can overcome the excellent passing matchup his team also has. As mentioned above, Houston is 29th against the run.
Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville is decent against the run, ranking 14th, but the sheer volume that we can expect from the Ravens could be enough to overcome it. My favorite Ravens play is actually TE Mark Andrews (the Wednesday Watchman cover player).
Run game fades: Bengals, Rams, Colts
(Stats courtesy of Football Outsiders and TruMedia Networks)
