Fantasy
12/21/22
6 min read
Jaguars vs. Jets Week 16 DFS Preview: Battle of 2021's Top Picks
The Jaguars have scored 28 or more points in three of their last four games. The Jets have allowed 28 points in just one game this season. Trevor Lawrence was the number one pick at quarterback, and his talent is being displayed. The second overall pick, Zach Wilson, is fighting for his job and is coming off a game where he threw for over 300 yards. This game has massive playoff implications for tiebreakers and for the Jaguars to push the Titans for the AFC South. This Thursday will have a playoff-type feel to it.
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Vegas Line: Jets -1.5
Over/Under: 36
Weather: Steady rain, 40 degrees, and it will be windy.
Notable Injuries
Jaguars: IR: CB Shaquill Griffin; OUT: OT Cam Robinson, DE Travon Walker, DT Folorunso Fatukasi; QUESTIONABLE: QB Trevor Lawrence, OG Brandon Scherff, OL Jawaan Taylor, LB Chad Muma, S Andrew Wingard
Jets: IR: OT Mekhi Becton, RB Breece Hall, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, S Marcell Harris; OUT: QB Mike White, WR Denzel Mims, WR Jeff Smith, CB Brandin Echols; QUESTIONABLE: S Lamarcus Joyner, DT Quinnen Williams, RB Bam Knight
Data to Know Provided by Sports Info Solutions
Jaguars Pass Offense vs. Jets
- Trevor Lawrence averages 7.0 yards per attempt, a 66.0% completion percentage, a 4.8% touchdown rate, and a 1.4% interception rate.
- The Jets allow the third-fewest yards per attempt at 6.4, the ninth-lowest completion percentage at 62.2%, and the second-fewest pass touchdowns at 13.
- The Jets play a lot of Cover 1 or Cover 4 coverages, but there’s tape on Cover 2 being successful against Lawrence, which Robert Saleh could utilize in the gameplan.
- Without Cam Robinson, I expect the Jets to attack that area of the offensive line, and Lawrence will be pressured.
- When pressured, Lawrence's touchdown rate drops in half, and his interception rate jumps.
- The Jets rank eighth in pressure rate this season.
- The four main pass catchers for the Jaguars are Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, and Evan Engram.
- Against Cover 1 or 4, Jones leads the team in target share at 30.8% and targets per route at 28.9%. Jamal Agnew, Kirk, and Jones are the only players over 2.3 yards per route.
- Players have been more successful in the slot than out wide against the Jets, and Kirk is the main slot player.
- Tight ends aligning in the slot have found success against the Jets, and Engram is that player for this offense.
Jaguars Rush Offense vs. Jets
- Travis Etienne has a bell cow role with this offense and ran for over 100 yards last week for the first time since Week 9.
- The Jets have only allowed eight touchdowns to running backs and give up 4.0 yards per carry.
- One player, Cleveland's Nick Chubb, accounts for three of these touchdowns.
- The weather conditions could force the Jaguars to lean more on the running game, and I’d also expect Jamal Agnew to be utilized in this role more.
Jets Pass Offense vs. Jaguars
- Zach Wilson averages 7.1 yards per attempt, a 54.9% completion percentage, a 2.7% touchdown rate, and a 2.7% interception rate.
- The Jaguars allow the ninth-highest yards per attempt at 7.4, the 16th-highest completion percentage at 65.1%, and the fifth-most passing touchdowns at 24.
- The Jaguars want to play Cover 2 or Cover 4 coverage but will utilize a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3 when they trail.
- With Wilson at quarterback, Corey Davis leads the wide receiver room in yards per route, and Garrett Wilson leads them in targets.
- With Jeff Smith and Denzel Mims out, the only wide receivers on the active roster are Davis, Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Braxton Berrios.
- The Jaguars have allowed big games to wide receivers this year, but with the weather and Wilson, it’ll come down to the big play.
- Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah will be the two tight ends that get routes, and both have caught touchdowns from Wilson.
Jets Rush Offense vs. Jaguars
- The Jaguars have given up 12 rushing touchdowns on the season but have held running backs to 4.1 yards per carry.
- Bam Knight has been the primary running back in this offense and has run well this season.
- Michael Carter had more snaps last week but was not utilized.
- Knight appeared on the injury report late in the week, and we will likely see both of them in a timeshare.
Overall Thoughts
The weather in this game will limit the number of big plays, but I see the opportunity for the Jets to make it happen. Wilson isn’t someone to count on, but the Jaguars’ secondary has struggled this season, and the deep plays have been there. Wilson will have a mismatch and be able to generate separation against this defense, and as long as Wilson doesn’t have pressure, he will be able to complete some of those throws. Davis has been a player Wilson has targeted deep in his career, and will continue to be that in this matchup.
Lawrence will not have it easy against the Jets' defense, and I believe this game comes down to Etienne’s ability to run. If the Jets can sit back in Cover 2 or 4, I don’t believe these wide receivers will get it done. The loss of Cam Robinson will be a large gap to fill, and the Jets will be attacking his replacement. Lawrence will look to Engram and Kirk in the passing game to exploit this Jets' defense.
Multiplier Pool
- WR Christian Kirk
- RB Travis Etienne
- WR Garrett Wilson
- TE Evan Engram
- WR Corey Davis
FLEX Pool
- QB Trevor Lawrence
- QB Zach Wilson
- WR Zay Jones
- RB Bam Knight
- RB Michael Carter
- K Greg Zuerlein
- K Riley Patterson
- DST Jaguars
- DST Jets
- TE Tyler Conklin
- TE C.J. Uzomah
- RB JaMycal Hasty
- WR Jamal Agnew
- WR Braxton Berrios
WATCH MORE: Lawrence Has Made Jaguars Playoff Contenders
