Analysis
12/18/22
6 min read
Giants vs. Commanders Sunday Night DFS Showdown
The Giants and Commanders met just 14 days ago, and the game ended in a tie. The Commanders had the ball for 41 minutes but could not convert on third down or finish drives to take control of the game. The Giants had six drives longer than four plays, and they scored on four of them. The Commanders had a bye last week, and the Giants were blown out by the Eagles. The advantage is with the Commanders, but how does it change for a showdown contest?Â
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Vegas Line: Commanders -4.5
Over Under: 40
Notable Injuries:
Giants
IR: WR Sterling Shepard, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, DT Nick Williams, WR Collin Johnson, DT D.J. Davidson, DB Aaron Robinson
OUT: OL Joshua Ezeudu, CB Adoree’ Jackson, OL Shane Lemieux, DE Elerson Smith
QUESTIONABLE: TE Daniel Bellinger, WR Richie James, CB Nick McCloud, DE Jihad Ward, DT Leonard Williams
Commanders
IR: LB Cole Holcomb, C Tyler Larsen, RB J.D. McKissic, TE Armani Rogers, C Chase Rouiller
OUT: OT Saahdiq Charles, DE Chase Young (NFL Media)
QUESTIONABLE: DB Benjamin St-Juste, WR Cam Sims, LB Efe Obada
Data to Know Provided by Sports Info Solutions
Giants Pass Offense vs. Commanders
- Daniel Jones averages 6.8 yards per attempt and has a 66% completion percentage and a 3.21% pass touchdown rate.
- The Commanders have the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL and only allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt.
- Jones was sacked four times in the first matchup but ran for 71 yards.
- The Commanders haven’t played Cover 1 in two weeks, pivoting to using more two-high looks and letting their front control the game.
- Against these coverages, Jones averages 7.6 yards per attempt and has a 6-2 TD/INT ratio.
- Since Week 12, Richie James has led the team in targets per route, while Darius Slayton leads the team in yards per route and in average depth of target (aDOT) against the Commanders' primary coverages.
- Isaiah Hodgins has one less target than James and Slayton against these coverages and one score.
- Daniel Bellinger is back from injury and will be the fourth option in this passing game.
- The Commanders have struggled with covering slot receivers this season.
- Hodgins mostly plays on the outside.
Giants Rush Offense vs. Commanders
- Saquon Barkley rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown in the first matchup against the Commanders.
- 34 of his rushing yards and the touchdown came on two carries. Outside of those plays, he averaged 1.8 yards per carry.
- The Commanders only allow 4.1 yards per carry to RBs and only five touchdowns on the season.
Commanders Pass Offense vs. Giants
- Taylor Heinicke averages 6.8 yards per attempt and has a 61.8% completion rate and a 4.3% pass touchdown rate.
- The Giants did not run as much Cover 1 or Cover 0 against the Commanders. Instead, they ran a lot more Cover 2 and Cover 4, playing with the lead and respecting the pass-catching options.
- Since Heinicke took over for Carson Wentz, Terry McLaurin has had a 30.8% target share, averages 2.8 yards per route and gets targeted on 29.6% of his routes.
- McLaurin is the main piece in this offense and will lead this team in production.
- Against Cover 2 or Cover 4, Heinicke’s second option has been Logan Thomas instead of the other wide receiver options.
- Jahan Dotson hasn’t built chemistry yet with Heinicke, but the bye week will help with that, and I believe he will improve his numbers.
- Curtis Samuel will be the short-yardage chain mover. If the Giants stick with their defensive game plan from last time, he'll have a strong showing once again.
Commanders Rush Offense vs. Giants
- Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson have two defined roles in this offense. Robinson is the heavy carry player, and Gibson will play the pass-catching role.Â
- The Giants’ run defense has allowed 5.3 yards per carry, and if they play two safeties back, Robinson will run well.
- If they go to their normal coverages, I expect Gibson to break off a few big runs with his speed.
- Miles Sanders, Kenyan Drake, Travis Etienne, Tony Pollard and Christian McCaffrey are the running backs that have run for more than 100 yards in a game against the Giants.
- All those running backs have speed, and we know Gibson is the faster running back.
Overall Thoughts
The Commanders have a clear advantage on both sides of the ball, however, Brian Daboll and Don Martindale are two of the best game planners in the NFL. Martindale loves blitzing and playing man coverage but did not do that in their first matchup. I expect him to lean into that more to try and change the game plan up and force mistakes from Heinicke. I also expect Dotson to be the go-to because the safety in Cover 1 will be heavily shifted toward McLaurin. In the running back room, expecting man coverage, I want to play Gibson for the long-run upside against a defense that has struggled with speed.
Daboll sees the weakness of the Commanders’ defense against the slot, and James and Slayton will get their work done from that area. Barkley has not run effectively in recent weeks, and I don’t expect that to change in this game. Jones can pay his price for rushing and get carries in the red zone. The pass rush will get to him early, resulting in quick passes or sacks.
Multiplier Pool
- WR Terry McLaurin
- RB Antonio Gibson
- WR Darius Slayton
- WR Jahan Dotson
FLEX Pool
- QB Daniel Jones
- QB Taylor Heinicke
- RB Brian Robinson
- TE Daniel Bellinger
- WR Isaiah Hodgins
- WR Richie James
- TE Logan Thomas
- DST Giants
- K Graham Gano
- K Joey Slye
- DST Commanders
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