Our DVOA-adjusted pass and run game rankings are back for Week 11!
Last week’s cover boy shined like the diamond that he is; thank you Christian Kirk! It always feels right when the stats match up with the results. Makes you believe in the process.
We also hit on the Buffalo Allen-Diggs-Davis stack, Mahomes, Kelce, Tua, and fading Dallas Goedert.
Saquon Barkley had the most yards rushing in the best rushing environment. Justin Fields had the second-most yards rushing in the third-best rushing environment. Tony Pollard was in the top eight for both expectation and result, too.
Big miss on the Packers-Cowboys game script, but we forge ahead.
Passing Game Targets
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes can not be contained. And Travis Kelce should be on the receiving end against the Chargers’ 24th-ranked TE defense.
Buffalo Bills: Six feet of snow. Even if it is only four feet, or two feet, I’d rather invest in a certain RB (below).
Cincinnati Bengals: You can throw on Pittsburgh, so Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are all in play while Ja’Marr Chase recovers. The Steelers allow the second-most yards passing per game.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert is struggling without his top two WRs, but hopefully we get Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back for their matchup with the Chiefs. Allen would be facing the 31st-ranked slot WR defense (Christian Kirk’s Week 10 victim).
San Francisco 49ers: Not sure I trust this one. The game is a divisional matchup at high elevation. But if someone goes off, the analytics-driven target should be George Kittle against the worst TE defense in the league.
Green Bay Packers: This game will have been played already at publication time, but it is on my list, so I will include it for posterity. Aaron Rodgers will need to pass to move the ball against the Titans (who rank second in rush defense EPA). Dial up Rogers and his pass-catchers. Tennessee is a dismal 30th against non-slot WR, and both Allen Lazard and Christian Watson run almost 60% of their routes out wide.
Passing Game Fades: Titans, Colts, Raiders, Patriots
Rushing Game Targets
New York Giants: Saquon Barkley hopes to smash to the top of the results as the top RB recommendation for the second straight week. Detroit’s defense is bad across the board, but it is 29th vs. the run and allows the most points per game in the league.
Chicago Bears: Justin Fields took all the yards last time, so be cautious with assumptions for the RBs in this situation. Atlanta is 27th in rush defense EPA.
Baltimore Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson could have a mirror-image gameplan to Fields. Except Jackson would actually have an excuse: Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman are injured, and the uninspiring Ravens’ RB room leaves much to be desired.
Atlanta Falcons: The Bears are actually worse against the run than the Falcons (30th), so choose between Cordarrelle Patterson, Marcus Mariota, and Tyler Allgeier for who is getting the yards. It is tough to discern.
Washington Commanders: The Texans are a paltry 28th against the run, and Antonio Gibson has really come on strongly as of recent.
Tennessee Titans: You can always count on Derrick Henry in November! Green Bay is 26th against the run and Henry is a feature back on a well-coached, clock-control, run-first offense.
Buffalo Bills: Devin Singletary is the man. The Browns are the worst defense against the run, the snow will be immense (unless the NFL moves the game), and Josh Allen has not looked quite right with all of the interceptions he has thrown recently. Singletary is the answer.
Run Game Fades: Cardinals, Rams, Texans, Packers
(Stats courtesy of Football Outsiders and Trumedia Networks)