Analysis
11/13/22
6 min read
Chargers vs. 49ers Sunday Night DFS Showdown
The San Francisco 49ers are 3-0 against their division and have won by an average score of 17 points. Outside their division, they are 1-4 and have two losses by multiple scores. The Los Angeles Chargers are experiencing another season of dealing with the injury bug and haven’t beaten a team with a winning record. This matchup will be difficult, as we will likely see a full workload for 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey against one of the league's worst run defenses.
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Vegas Line: 49ers -7
Over Under: 46.5
Notable Injuries:
Chargers
IR: DE Joey Bosa, CB J.C. Jackson, LT Rashawn Slater.
OUT: WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, K Dustin Hopkins.
Questionable: OL Brenden Jaimes, OT Trey Pipkins.
49ers
IR: QB Trey Lance, CB Jason Verrett, DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
Out: DT Arik Armstead.
Doubtful: OLB Samson Ebukam.
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Chargers Offense vs. 49ers Defense
- Justin Herbert averages 6.4 yards per attempt, 6.3 air yards per attempt and a 3.7% pass touchdown rate.
- The 49ers play zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
- Herbert ranks close to last in yards per attempt against zone coverage.
- Without WR Keenan Allen, Herbert hasn’t had someone to find the soft spots in zones.
- The 49ers rely on their elite-level DL for pressure and don’t blitz often.
- The Chargers’ three main WRs are Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter and Michael Bandy.
- All three players can play in the slot and out wide, but Carter will likely have most of the snaps in that alignment.
- The 49ers' defense has struggled against the slot this season, allowing 1.6 yards per route run.
- As for tight ends, it will be Gerald Everett, Tre’ McKitty and Richard Rodgers.
- Everett will dominate the targets, but if they get near the goal line, the other two can run a route and find the end zone.
- On the year, Austin Ekeler has a 23.5% target share, averages 2.2 yards per route run, and gets targeted on 38.2% of routes against zone coverage.
- Ekeler is likely to dominate touches in this matchup and will be in line for a lot of targets.
- With the increased usage, they will give Ekeler more breaks, and you will see Rookie Isaiah Spiller and Sony Michel.
- Spiller had seven carries for 29 yards last weekend.
- The 49ers have an excellent run defense, but in a showdown slate, it doesn’t take much to pay off at the price of Spiller.
49ers Offense vs. Chargers Defense
- Jimmy Garoppolo averages 8.1 yards per attempt, 7.3 air yards per attempt and a 5.2% pass touchdown rate.
- When your yards per attempt are greater than your air yards per attempt, it tells you that the players catching the ball are performing after the catch.
- Without J.C. Jackson and Joey Bosa, the Chargers have run a heavy zone scheme.
- Garoppolo’s numbers are impressive this season, considering how long he waited to throw a football and how the team didn’t allow him to practice because they were trading him.
- The 49ers are returning Deebo Samuel, Elijah Mitchell, Kyle Juszczyk and Jauan Jennings.
- The 49ers will utilize Brandon Aiyuk and Samuel in the WR room.
- Against zone coverage, Samuel is targeted more than Aiyuk.
- The Chargers have struggled against out wide WRs and tight ends.
- Aiyuk has played more on the outside, but Samuel sees plenty of snaps in that area.
- In the tight end room, George Kittle is the only one to note and is in a great matchup against the Chargers.
- Kittle is likely to be the forgotten piece in this offense with McCaffrey, Samuel and Aiyuk.
- The Chargers are the worst run defense in football this season.
- McCaffrey should be up to speed on the playbook, and the ceiling game is here for this offense.
- McCaffrey scored in three different ways last weekend and is in a spot to be able to do even more this weekend.
- Mitchell returning could take some work away in this game because of the matchup.
Overall Thoughts
Herbert has struggled against zone coverage; the 49ers are one of the best defenses in the NFL and are getting healthier post-bye week. Ekeler, Everett and Palmer will need to carry the workload offensively and make a lot of plays after the catch. Herbert will also need to use his legs to move the ball because he hasn’t been over six yards per attempt since Week 5. The Chargers offense has not had anything positive going for them in recent weeks outside of Ekeler, and I don’t expect that to show in this matchup.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has the full weaponry at his disposal post-bye week, and this will be a difficult offense to defend. If this game stays close, I expect McCaffrey to have massive numbers and will be a chalk multiplier that hits, but I don’t expect it to stay close. McCaffrey will not be a player I fade, but I see Kittle as the more contrarian multiplier in a blowout.
The other 49ers’ will be tough to trust in the matchup because I believe this isn’t a game the 49ers empty the playbook to win. Aiyuk has shown a lot in recent weeks, but for him, it’ll take the long ball to be the multiplier because I don’t see a ton of volume going his way. Samuel, off of the hamstring injury, is hard to trust from a workload perspective in his first game back. Finally, Mitchell is an intriguing player in an early lead scenario because there’s no reason to put the touches on McCaffrey when you have a big lead.
Multiplier Pool
- RB Christian McCaffrey
- RB Austin Ekeler
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo
- TE George Kittle
FLEX Pool
- QB Justin Herbert
- WR Brandon Aiyuk
- WR Deebo Samuel
- WR Josh Palmer
- TE Gerald Everett
- WR DeAndre Carter
- K Robbie Gould
- K Cameron Dicker
- RB Isaiah Spiller
- WR Michael Bandy
- RB Kyle Juszcyk
- RB Elijah Mitchell
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