Analysis
10/17/22
6 min read
Broncos vs. Chargers DFS Monday Night Showdown
The struggling Denver Broncos are in yet another primetime game. But this might finally be the time we get to see Russell Wilson cook because the Chargers defense is giving up 27 points per game. Justin Herbert and the Chargers will have a tough time keeping pace as the Broncos defense is giving up 16 points per game this season. The Broncos have not been in any exciting games, but I expect that to change tonight.
Vegas Line: Chargers -6
Over Under: 46
Notable Injuries:
Broncos: IR: Javonte Williams, LT Garrett Boles, Edge Randy Gregory, CB Ronald Darby. Out: LB Josey Jewell, Caden Sterns. Questionable: RB Melvin Gordon, TE Eric Saubert, LG Dalton Risner, RG Quinn Meinerz.
Chargers: IR: LT Rashawn Slater, Edge Joey Bosa. Doubtful: WR Keenan Allen. Questionable: RT Trey Pipkins III.
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Broncos Offense vs. Chargers Defense
- Wilson is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, 8.5 air yards per attempt, and a 2.4% pass touchdown rate.
- Wilson has been sacked on 8.2% of his dropbacks.
- The Chargers defense is giving up 7.0 yards per attempt, 7.4 air yards per attempt, and a 5.6% pass touchdown rate this season.
- Los Angeles' defense has yet to allow a 300-yard passer and has held three quarterbacks under 250 yards passing.
- The Chargers play man coverage 36% of the time, which is among the highest in the league.
- Against man coverage, Wilson averages 13.9 yards per attempt with 12.7 air yards per attempt on 30 dropbacks.
- Against zone coverage, Wilson averages just 6.5 yards per attempt, and he has faced it 83.9% of the time this season.
- Besides Week 1, the Chargers have played man coverage more than 30% of their snaps for four straight weeks and have blitzed more than 30% of the time in three straight weeks.
- The Broncos have three main wide receivers, Cortland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler.
- Sutton leads the team in target share and does so against zone coverage, man coverage and the blitz.
- Jeudy is a much better player against man coverage and teams that blitz.
- Hamler hasn’t drawn a large target share, but he did run more than 71.1% of the possible routes last week.
- In the tight end room, there’s a four-player rotation with Eric Saubert leading the way at 53.3% of the routes run.
- Albert Okwuegbunam did run 31.1% of the routes and would be the player to limit Saubert’s role in the offense.
- The running back room is split between Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone.
- Gordon had 18 touches for 103 yards, and Boone had 10 touches for 85 yards last week.
- Gordon got the overtime work, and Boone got the last drive of the 4th quarter.
- The Chargers run defense is giving up 6.2 yards per carry.
- Against the Chargers, three different running backs have run for more than 100 yards, and none of those running backs got more than 20 rushing attempts.
Chargers Offense vs. Broncos Defense
- Herbert averages 7.4 yards per attempt, 6.6 air yards per attempt and a 5.0% pass touchdown rate.
- Denver’s pass defense is dominant. They average 6.0 yards per attempt, 7.2 air yards per attempt and a 1.8% touchdown pass rate.
- The Broncos have held three quarterbacks to less than 200 yards passing and have two games with a more than 10% sack rate.
- Herbert has struggled against zone coverage this year. He's averaging 6.8 yards per attempt and 5.3 air yards per attempt. Missing WR Keenan Allen, who is great at finding soft spots in zone coverage, with injuries is a big reason Herbert has struggled.
- Denver is playing zone at more than a 70% rate.
- Against man coverage, Herbert has averaged 10.4 yards per attempt and 10.3 air yards per attempt.
- The Chargers have three main wide receivers: Mike Williams, Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter.
- Williams is the alpha in this spot and has had a more than 28% target share in back-to-back weeks.
- Carter and Palmer produce similarly. Both get targeted on less than 20% of their routes and average less than 1.3 yards per route run.
- In the tight end room, Gerald Everett leads the way, with Tre McKitty second and Donald Parham, who returned this weekend third.
- Against zone coverage, the Chargers have four players with a more than 10% target share.
- RB Austin Ekeler leads the team with a 20% target share against zone coverage.
- Carter has less than a 10% target share against zone.
- Everett gets targeted per route run more than Williams, Palmer and Carter against zone coverage.
- Ekeler has had back-to-back big games, and the offensive line has started to block better.
- The Broncos are allowing 5.1 yards per carry, and they are missing one of their better tacklers in linebacker Josey Jewell.
- Los Angeles' second running back will be Joshua Kelly, but he will likely get less than 10 touches.
Overall Thoughts
This matchup is surprisingly a great spot for the Broncos to move the ball offensively, and if Chargers coach Brandon Staley sticks with his man-heavy scheme, Sutton and Jeudy's deep routes will be open. Wilson has not seen much man coverage, but when he does, he's tried to push the ball downfield.
The Chargers are missing Allen big time since he can find the soft spots in zone coverages. Williams will line up against Patrick Surtain II for most of this game. However, against Denver's zone-heavy scheme, the Chargers can motion Williams away from Surtain and run routes away from his zone. Herbert will need one of the secondary wide receivers to step up and make plays against this quality Broncos secondary.
Multiplier Pool
- Russell Wilson
- Courtland Sutton
- Jerry Jeudy
- Josh Palmer
- Gerald Everett
- Mike Boone
FLEX Pool
- Austin Ekeler
- Justin Herbert
- Mike Williams
- Melvin Gordon
- Dustin Hopkins
- Brandon McManus
- Broncos DST
- K.J. Hamler
- DeAndre Carter
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- Eric Saubert
- Donald Parham
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