With Trey Lance being out for the season, Jimmy Garoppolo takes over for the 49ers, and he looked comfortable running the offense last weekend. The 49ers are also getting George Kittle for the first time this season and now have a full set of pass-catchers for Garoppolo to spread the ball around.
This Broncos offense has been underwhelming to begin the season, as they have only scored 16 points in their first two games. This is due to their lack of ability to score in the red zone; on six attempts, they have not scored. The offense could also be without Jerry Jeudy, resulting in a boost of snaps to K.J. Hamler or Tyrie Cleveland.
Vegas Line: 49ers -1.5
Over Under: 44
49ers: QB Trey Lance (IR), OT Daniel Brunskill (Out), TE Tyler Kroft (Out), DT Arik Armstead (Questionable), RB Tyrion Davis-Price (Out)
Broncos: WR Jerry Jeudy (Questionable), G Quinn Meinerz, CB Darius Phillips (Out), CB Pat Surtain (Questionable), WR KJ Hamler (Questionable), iLB Josey Jewell (Questionable), OT Billy Turner (Questionable), DE Dre’Mont Jones (Questionable), NT Mike Purcell (Questionable), WR Tyrie Cleveland (Questionable)
Data to Know
49ers Offense vs. Broncos Defense
- Jimmy Garoppolo averaged 8.6 yards per attempt last season and was one of three QB’s who played more than ten games and average over eight yards per attempt in 2021
- With Garoppolo at QB, and Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all on the field, their target shares are 23.7%, 23.1%, and 19.5%, respectively.
- Deebo leads the trio in touchdowns with nine, but seven of them are rushing.
- Aiyuk leads the trio in red zone targets.
- Kittle and Aiyuk are tied for the most receiving touchdowns with five each.
- The Broncos’ main coverage this season has been zone, and with those three on the field, Kittle has led them in target share at 27%.
- The Broncos’ defense has only given up two touchdowns this season, and both have been through the air.
- Jeff Wilson will be the main running back, but I expect Deebo to see plenty of work in the backfield with Kittle returning.
- San Francisco promoted Marlon Mack to the active roster. With that promotion, I will have zero interest in Jordan Mason, who has only been a special teams player.
Broncos Offense vs. 49ers Defense
- With the Seahawks last season, Russell Wilson went undefeated against the 49ers, throwing two touchdowns in each game, but only averaging 6.24 yards per attempt.
- Courtland Sutton is the main piece to acquire, as he has a 26% target share this year.
- Albert Okwuegbunam is second on the team in routes run and fourth on targets.
- Javonte Williams is second on the team with a 23% target share.
- Williams has run 26 more routes than Melvin Gordon this season.
- If Jeudy, it will be Hamler in the slot, and if he cannot go, it will go to Cleveland.
- So far, the 49ers’ run defense has been lights out, only allowing 2.8 yards per carry to runningbacks.
- Gordon and Williams both have had 22 carries and fumbled in the red zone this year.
- Gordon has been primarily used in the running game and, despite not being a primary route runner out of the backfield, has two red zone targets.
2021 Data Provided by SIS
After four weeks of data for 2022, I will update this as 2022 data; for now, I will highlight the differences inside the Data to Know Section.
|YPA vs Zone||9.6||7.3|
|YPA vs Man||8.1||8.0|
|YPA vs Blitz||10.0||8.9|
|% TGT to Wide||20%||25%|
|% TGT to Slot||50%||35%|
|% TGT to RB||20%||18%|
|% TGT to TE||21%||27%|
|Gap Run %||24.0%||35.0%|
|Zone Run %||75.0%||64.0%|
|Red Zone Pass Rate||52.0%||51.0%|
|Red Zone Rush Rate||48.0%||49.0%|
|Zone Coverage %||59.0%||47.0%|
|Man Coverage %||20.0%||42.0%|
|Primary Coverage||Cover 3||Cover 1|
|Secondary Coverage||Cover 4||Cover 3|
|Stacked Box %||15.0%||4.0%|
- Deebo Samuel
- The role in this offense that Samuel has is desirable, and I expect him to be the running back getting touches near the goal line.
- Courtland Sutton
- Sutton will get heavily targeted in this game and is the top WR for Russell Wilson.
- George Kittle
- With the soft zone coverage that the Broncos’ run, I expect Kittle to lead the team in targets. He is my favorite multiplier play on the slate.
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Aiyuk has the big play ability, and if Surtain cannot go, I believe this secondary will have difficulty defending the deep ball once they load the box to stop the run.
- Russell Wilson
- With how the 49ers’ run defense has played, I expect Wilson to be throwing the ball a lot in this game. I don’t believe he’ll be effective outside of targeting Sutton.
- Jimmy Garoppolo
- This 49ers offense is fully healthy, and Garoppolo will get the ball to his playmakers.
- K.J. Hamler
- He is the favorite to step up into a bigger role without Jeudy after not playing last weekend.
- 49ers D/ST
- They have a 46% pressure rate to begin the season, and Wilson has been sacked five times to begin the year.
- Robbie Gould
- Kicking in Denver presents opportunities for long-field goals.
- Brandon McManus
- McManus has made seven field goals to begin the year, and this offense isn’t getting better in the red zone.
- Tyrie Cleveland
- Only playable if Jeudy and Hamler cannot go.
- Marlon Mack
- I expect him to be ahead of Jordan Mason in the backfield.