Fantasy
10/28/22
12 min read
Bet Big on the Keystone State in Your Week 8 Main Slate Cash Games
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts - (DraftKings: $8,300 / FanDuel: $9,200)
It’s the battle of the keystone state! In all fantasy football seriousness, are we really going to consider anyone else in cash games this week? DraftKings and FanDuel are ahead of the game, because Hurts is priced nearly $1,000 more than the next quarterback on the slate. So while this move is going to cost you plenty, it’s likely to be a move with a huge payout. If you want the no-stress quarterback, then Hurts is your guy this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers give up the third most passing touchdowns in the league, an area we expect to see some positive regression out of the Philadelphia Eagles. They are scoring rushing touchdowns way more than they are scoring through the air. At some point, we expect that to meet in the middle. I think this is a great spot for it to happen for Jalen Hurts.
This is a set-it-and-forget-it week for Jalen Hurts. Not only are the Pittsburgh Steelers giving up the third-most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, but they also allow an average of 119 rushing yards per game. Jalen Hurts's dual threat ability makes it hard to ignore his floor-to-ceiling capability in this game. The Eagles have the third-highest implied team total this week and Jalen Hurts is typically at the center of all those lovely fantasy points. It also helps to know that the Pittsburgh Steelers rank 30th in pressure rate and Jalen Hurts is top-three in completion rate and accuracy rating from a clean pocket. Jalen Hurts can run on this defense, throw on this defense, and do it all from a clean pocket?! Yeah, sign me up. It’s Jalen Hurts for me this week in cash.
Tua Tagovailoa - (DraftKings: $6,200 / FanDuel: $7,700)
The options outside of Jalen Hurts this week are not great for cash. If Jalen Hurts is a ten, then Tua is an eight. I’ll take an eight for a $2,000 savings in some of my lineups, why not? Tua has a dream matchup here. The Detroit Lions have been handing QB1 finishes over to opposing teams like they're Halloween candy. They are fourth in fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and I love his teammate Tyreek Hill this week, especially with Detroit ranking 28th in DVOA against deep passing. If Tua and Hill are connecting on deep passes, this game is going to be super juicy for DFS. I expect the bonuses to hit and I expect this game to be a fun one to watch.
My only concern is that the Dolphins are able to do enough on the ground that it will negate Tua needing to pass the ball enough. That’s why I feel safer with Jalen Hurts in my lineup. Points will be scored, it's just a matter of how or where they’re coming from. I don’t know that he’s going to be super popular in cash games, as he had an awesome matchup last week and didn’t take advantage of it, but I’m willing to chalk that up to dusting some of the rust off and dealing with a rainy game. Before Tua had the horrific injury, he was leading the league in passing yards. This game is going to be played in the dome, so there are no weather concerns and no excuses when coming back to another cake matchup. I’m taking some chances on Tua, and so should you.
Honorable Mention: Daniel Jones - (DraftKings: $5,700 / FanDuel: $7,500)
Deep Sleeper: Jared Goff - (DraftKings: $5,500 / FanDuel: $7,300)
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley - (DraftKings: $8,100 / FanDuel: $9,500)
At this point, it’s a no-brainer to get Barkley into your lineups, and I’m not going to waste my time explaining too much. In cash, we’re making a decision here on if we want to pay up for Henry or Barkley this week. I don’t think either is a wrong answer, but Barkley is cheaper. That’s the deciding factor for me on who I’ll have more heavily rostered. Barkley has been the beating heart of this New York Giants' offense. Knock on wood here, but he’s the last man standing amongst their laundry list of injured players. This is the guy they needed to keep winning games all along.
He’s third in red zone touches, first in rushing attempts, and ninth in targets. This week he goes up against the Seattle Seahawks, who we are constantly picking on at the running back position in DFS. The Seahawks are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game and give up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. They are also particularly bad against receiving backs and surrender the third-most receptions and second-most receiving yards to them. Barkley ranks first in rushing attempts and receiving targets in the league. Sounds like another good week for Saquon.
Josh Jacobs - (DraftKings: $7,500 / FanDuel: $9,000)
Honestly, if you don’t want to pay up for Henry or Barkley, then how about you pay for the guy averaging the most points per game on this slate at the running back position? While Barkley cuts this contest close, you can save $600/$500 in salary for the same production. Josh Jacobs has posted 33+ DK points each week over the last three weeks. Why stop playing him now? Davante Adams hasn’t practiced all week and he’s not going to be 100% for the game on Sunday. I’m not positive Waller will be back either. It’s likely that the Raiders continue to ride Josh Jacobs off into the sunset during his contract year here. He’s averaging 27.3 touches and 174.3 total yards per game. The New Orleans Saints are 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. On average they allow 123.1 yards per game this season. Josh Jacobs is going to smash that mark. Fire him up again for as long as they don’t price him ultra-high, because he’s the RB2 in fantasy this season and doesn’t look to be slowing down any time soon.
Honorable Mention: Kenneth Walker III- (DraftKings: $6,500 / FanDuel: $8,400)
Deep Sleeper: Raheem Mostert - (DraftKings: $5,900 / FanDuel: $6,800)
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill - (DraftKings: $8,500 / FanDuel: $8,700)
There is no slate-breaking wide receiver quite like Tyreek Hill. There is especially no player on this slate capable of breaking it like Tyreek Hill going up against a Detroit Lions' defense. The Lions so far this season have allowed the most points and yards per game, and it is no question for me here this week about who I want to start my lineups with and then build around. The Lions have allowed eight different wide receivers to put up at least 90 yards and a touchdown in the six games they have played this season. With the return of Tua, who has had great chemistry with the speedy, typically wide-open Tyreek Hill, this is a match made in fantasy heaven.
Tyreek is leading the NFL in receiving targets despite the quarterback carousel he’s had under center. When Tua is in the lineup, it’s even more exaggerated. Hill averages 10 targets a game when Tua is in the lineup, and that’s including a four-target performance against a stout Bills' defense. Otherwise, he’d be averaging 12.6 targets per game, and I think that's the more likely outcome on a weekly basis. Hill is also second in the league in deep targets and first in deep receiving yards. If Tua wants to air the ball out you're going to NEED Hill in your cash game lineups, because his points in this game could be extremely hard to overcome. I think you would be crazy to fade Tyreek Hill in this game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - (DraftKings: $6,900 / FanDuel: $7,200)
I’m upset that I laid out the perfect explanation for playing Amon-Ra for you last week and then watched him leave the game super early with a concussion that apparently wasn’t a concussion at all. Under the new protocol, he had to be taken out of this game. I’m happy players are finally being protected, because it's necessary. It’s just from a DFS perspective it flat-out sucked watching him go out in the first quarter. Those lineups are dead before the games barely even started. Because I still believe in Amon-Ra’s talent, I'm going back to the well with him this week in his matchup vs. the Miami Dolphins.
If I’m writing this expecting Tua, Mostert, and Hill to have fantastic fantasy days, then I’d be absolutely wild not to think Amon-Ra St. Brown isn’t going to be on the other side combating those points. My stance from last week still stands that the Lions are going to continue to lean heavily on Amon-Ra. He’s going to be the focal point in this game, where I think he can have huge fantasy success against this beat-up Dolphins' secondary. The Dolphins are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and I like this game to be a shootout. This team is still not far removed from being one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league, and now they get two of their best weapons back with Swift and St. Brown. The Dolphins have the second-highest-implied team total on the slate (27.5) whereas the Lions are tied at ninth (24), but I definitely see a case where this is recency bias and we will be going back closer to the offense we saw those first first weeks now that players are starting to get healthy. Play Hill and bring it back with Amon-Ra!
Honorable Mention: Chris Olave - (DraftKings: $6,000 / FanDuel: $6,900)
Deep Sleeper: D.J. Moore - (DraftKings: $5,300 / FanDuel: $6,200)
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee - (DraftKings: $5,300 / FanDuel: $6,000)
Honestly, it’s rough trying to identify tight ends this week, and I’m not willing to pay up for anyone. This is going to be a punt at tight end this week for me. The Rams are coming off their bye week. The week before that Higbee had an uncharacteristically quiet game against the Carolina Panthers. For most of the season, Higbee hasn’t seen fewer than nine targets. Outside of Cooper Kupp and a couple of red zones looks to Allen Robinson, Higbee has been the dude Stafford looks for in the offense. I'm guessing because of his lack of production against the Panthers and everyone's general lack of faith that Higbee was going to remain “a thing”, it caused him to drop in price. It’s the lowest he’s been on the main slate since Week 2. Higbee is running a route on 80% of his team's dropbacks and ranks fourth amongst tight ends in target share with 22.6%. We already saw these two teams face off in Week 4, where Higbee saw a season-high 14 targets and scored 17.3 DK points. So why not? This should be a decent enough game environment for him here to produce and put up similar production. Maybe that bye week rest will help Stafford’s elbow and the Rams get right and bounce back with a better offense than we’ve seen as of late.
Pat Freiermuth - (DraftKings: $4,000 / FanDuel: $5,700)
I don’t think people are realizing it but Pat Freiermuth has quietly put together a solid fantasy stat line on a week-to-week basis. He’s been consistent outside of when he has been injured and has averaged nearly seven targets a game. That includes only two targets in the Bills game where he was injured and left. Otherwise, I believe his targets would be even higher. He’s being targeted on 25% of his routes and has only scored one touchdown so far this season on three red zone targets. I think with this kind of usage we're going to see more touchdowns and solid fantasy production out of the Muth.
I know people are going to be looking for a bring back in this matchup when playing Jalen Hurts or A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith. While George Pickens is going to likely be the more popular play, I’m going to lean on Freiermuth. The matchup may not look great on paper, given the fact that the Philadelphia Eagles' defense has been playing lights out, but the tight end position is a softer spot on the defense that can be targeted with a more-than-capable player like Freiermuth. They haven’t seen a lot of game-changing tight ends this season. The defense essentially eliminates opposing wide receivers, and teams need to be looking to the running back or tight end position if they want to gain any leverage. I think Mike Tomlin is a smart enough guy to utilize Freiermuth more over his sluggish slow running back, and if Pickett is forcing the ball to his receivers in coverage against Slay Jr., Maddox, and Bradberry, it’s going to be leading to a lot of turnovers. Just trust me on this and don’t overthink it. Freiermuth is the Steelers player you want to play in this game.
Honorable Mention: Irv Smith Jr. - (DraftKings: $3,500 / FanDuel: $5,000)
Deep Sleeper: Juwan Johnson - (DraftKings: $3,300 / FanDuel: $5,200)
D/ST
Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears - (DraftKings: $4,000 / FanDuel: $5,000)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams - (DraftKings: $3,100 / FanDuel: $4,500)
Honorable Mention: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets - (DraftKings: $3,000 / FanDuel: $4,700)
Deep Sleeper: Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans - (DraftKings: $2,600 / FanDuel: $3,300)
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