Fantasy

5/16/23

16 min read

2023 Fantasy Football: Treating NFL Week 17 Like a DFS Contest

By Jordan Vanek

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Best ball players on both DraftKings and Underdog will win millions of dollars based on the results of Week 17’s games. Given the high stakes, I will take an early look at the Week 17 slate from a DFS perspective.

Converting DFS Concepts to Best Ball

Just like in DFS, best ball players want to build their teams around a quarterback with one or more of their pass catchers. To optimize our best ball rosters for Week 17, we need to build our team to have a DFS viable lineup for that specific slate. Like in DFS, concepts like stacking with a bring-back are important. Similarly, DFS and best ball tournament players are more interested in targeting players with upside rather than a solid floor.

While there are similarities, there are challenges best ball players have DFS players do not. First, a lot can change between now and Week 17. Injuries, players exceeding or falling below expectations, the list of variables goes on. DFS players aren’t building lineups for contests that will be decided six months from now. Those unknowns can either boost or destroy a best ball team. 

Another challenge for best ball players is a game stack in DFS could be nearly impossible to achieve in best ball. For example, a Jalen Hurts double stack with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith would be expensive in DFS, but it’s doable. Based on current ADP, it will be nearly impossible to have a best ball team with Hurts, Brown and Smith on it.

With those factors in mind, here are my favorite games to stack with plausible player combinations, one team to onslaught, some mini stacks narratives I do not believe in and my Week 17 player pool.

Games to Stack

Elite vs. Single High or Two High Coverage

In this analysis, I will present bar graphs showcasing the dominance of players against single high or two high coverage. The tables provided above depict the target share ranges and corresponding performance metrics for players at various percentiles. These metrics are crucial in projecting future performance, indicating how much a player is targeted against each coverage type. The data presented from Sports Info Solutions.

To illustrate, let's consider Justin Jefferson's performance in 2022. Against single high coverage, he commanded an impressive target share of more than 30 percent and achieved a remarkable 3.89 yards per route run. These numbers surpass the 75th percentile yards per route run of 3.52 and indicate elite-level performance. Such insights allow us to gauge the effectiveness of players against specific coverages, and if they are projected to get them, we will see a high fantasy point total week.

Quarterback Game Stacks

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings have a favorable schedule, with four of their final five games in a dome. With the offense finding its rhythm, they are poised to put up explosive numbers against the Green Bay Packers. Pairing Kirk Cousins with two top pass catchers will be beneficial throughout the regular season, especially in the final five weeks with favorable matchups.

The Packers often use single high coverage, which plays into the strengths of Justin Jefferson, who has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL against this defensive look. Even if they try to double him with Jaire Alexander, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison can capitalize on big play opportunities.

The Vikings' revamped defensive scheme under Brian Flores brings an aggressive approach, featuring plenty of man coverage and blitzing. This defensive strategy creates exciting opportunities for explosive plays down the field, making Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed key targets.

Each of these wide receivers can contribute to a dynamic offensive performance. Incorporating two of these receivers into a Jordan Love lineup enhances your chances of success and adds a unique and differentiated element to your tournament strategy.

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts have a young secondary that will struggle to contain Davante Adams. Jimmy Garoppolo, well-versed in McDaniel's system, will play with a methodical approach, utilizing short passing plays to target Adams and rookie tight end Michael Mayer. Garoppolo has shown comfortability throwing to tight ends, and Mayer is fairly NFL-ready coming out of college.

Off-of-play action, there will be plenty of ways to target Mayer, and he’s shown the ability to sit down vs. zone coverage. As for the defense, Gus Bradley will utilize a lot of single high coverage. Last season, Adams averaged 3.08 yards per route run and was targeted on 36 percent of his routes against single high. 

The Raiders' defense presents multiple vulnerabilities, and at this stage of the season, Anthony Richardson should be free to take risks down the field. This is why Alec Pierce stands out as a receiver over Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. Pierce possesses better deep-threat capabilities compared to both players. I don't anticipate a high-volume passing season for Richardson, so we are chasing the big play. Jonathan Taylor is the preferred run back option in this game

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants

New York Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale likes to blitz. Cooper Kupp will have a field day with their defensive backs because he is one of the smartest route runners in the league. Even in 2022, Kupp led the team in target share against single-high coverage, despite missing eight games.

Although Matthew Stafford isn't at his peak, his current Round 14 ADP presents an enticing opportunity for fantasy managers. Playing a full season with Sean McVay and Kupp, Stafford should deliver multiple productive weeks, and this matchup appears to be one of them. The Los Angeles Rams' defense will also give up plenty of points, forcing Stafford to keep throwing.

The Rams' secondary is the weakest in the NFL. This opens up a prime opportunity for the Giants to capitalize with two key pass catchers. Daniel Jones didn't frequently target deep passes in 2022 due to the limitations of his receiving corps. Jalin Hyatt, known for his exceptional speed, is expected to change this aspect for the upcoming season.

Additionally, Darren Waller, a highly reliable target, will likely lead the team in receptions. Drawing from the knowledge gained while working with Andy Reid and his schemes for Travis Kelce, Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka is expected to get plenty of targets Waller's way. Considering Darius Slayton's appealing late-round ADP, he presents a compelling option for a double stack, making him an easily attainable target.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

Jim Schwartz, who uses a lot of single-high coverage, takes the helm as the Cleveland Browns' new defensive coordinator. His defense ranked first in single-high usage in his last season as a defensive coordinator. During the past five seasons, the average touchdown rate against this coverage stands at around five percent; however, Aaron Rodgers, the new quarterback for the New York Jets, has a slightly higher touchdown rate of 7.2 percent, with an exceptional 13.9 percent in 2020 against single high coverage.

In his last two meetings against Schwartz, Rodgers threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns and 422 yards and two touchdowns. Adams averaged 13.5 targets, 10 receptions, 150.5 yards and one touchdown in those games. Moreover, Garrett Wilson, projected as the Jets’ primary receiving option this year, has already demonstrated his ability to exploit the Browns’ defensive backfield. He had a 102-yard, two-touchdown performance against them last season. 

The New York Jets have a top-tier secondary, which means we're more interested in the run game instead of the passing game, but I think Deshaun Watson to Amari Cooper will be a strong connection. In 2022, Cooper was among a small group of players who received a target share of more than 28 percent against both single-high and two-high coverage.

Watson has yet to have two players with more than 100 targets in a single season, and I believe Cooper will be the go-to. The Jets often rely on two high safeties, which could lead to lighter defensive boxes and create opportunities for Nick Chubb to shine. The Browns will need to bring their A-game to overcome the Jets' strong secondary and find success on the field.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen has consistently performed impressively against the New England Patriots, averaging more than 3.3 passing touchdowns in his last four matchups, excluding a game affected by severe weather conditions. He has also recorded two games with more than 300 passing yards, indicating his potential for continued success against the Patriots this year.

For a unique stack with Allen, consider targeting Deonte Harty, who secured a two-year, $9.5 million contract during the offseason. Harty exhibited exceptional skills against single high coverage in 2021, a defensive strategy likely to be utilized in this game. With Stefon Diggs expected to draw double coverage, Gabe Davis and Harty emerge as appealing alternatives, offering lower opportunity costs and the potential for breakout performances throughout the season.

The significant contract given to Harty suggests a potential lack of confidence in Khalil Shakir. While Dalton Kincaid possesses promising potential, he is being drafted too high for what can be anticipated in his rookie year.

While pairing Allen with Diggs carries a high opportunity cost, it becomes more reasonable when considering a potential stack involving Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bills' run defense was exposed last season, and the absence of star linebacker Tremaine Edmunds adds to its vulnerabilities. Additionally, losing defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier puts the responsibility of calling plays on head coach Sean McDermott, posing a challenging situation.

Onslaught Stacks

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

Given the Arizona Cardinals' projected weakness on defense and the Philadelphia Eagles' chance to exploit their former defensive coordinator, there is a prime opportunity for the Eagles' offense to thrive. Constructing a fantasy lineup that includes either Brown or Smith alongside Dallas Goedert is the way to on-slaught this game.

Additionally, Hurts' dual-threat abilities give him a chance to be one of the top fantasy quarterbacks, and this matchup against the Cardinals sets the stage for a big performance.

Mini Stacks

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

In Week 17, Calvin Ridley will have had plenty of time to get the rust off after missing most of the last two years. Ridley has had plenty of strong weeks against the Carolina Panthers in his career, and I expect this to be another. The Jacksonville Jaguars have enough receivers to keep the safeties honest and allow Ridley to work in one-on-one situations, opening the door for big plays down the field.

With a rookie quarterback, having a good run game will be important. That’s where I believe Miles Sanders will be a player to mini stack. The Jaguars were susceptible to the run against good offensive lines, and the Panthers will have a good run-blocking line this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks

In the 2022 season, the Seattle Seahawks didn’t allow opposing out wide receivers to score a single touchdown. They added rookie corner Devon Witherspoon to that secondary room, and I have zero interest in the Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers. However, their vulnerability to tight ends was evident, as they surrendered the second-highest yards in that position. With the departure of Chase Claypool and Kenny Pickett as the starting quarterback, Pat Freiermuth emerged as a reliable target, leading the team with an impressive 23 percent targets per route run.

This matchup presents a prime opportunity for Freiermuth to receive a significant number of looks. As the season progresses, I anticipate Jaxon Smith-Njigba gradually assuming a more prominent role within Seattle's offense, potentially becoming the leading target during the season's final stretch.

Smith-Njigba's skill set and potential make him a formidable threat against the majority of the secondary, excluding Minkah Fitzpatrick. Given the Steelers' formidable pass rush, quick release becomes crucial, and Smith-Njigba should be the primary target in such situations.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens

Tyreek Hill has repeatedly proven to be a dominant player, especially when faced with two high-coverage defenders. His ability to consistently produce elite-level yards per route run against such coverage makes him a strong choice.

I don’t love stacking this game because of the December weather and the price of trying to get Hill and Jaylen Waddle with Tua Tagovailoa or Lamar Jackson, who might not be utilizing his legs as much.

It's important to note the Miami Dolphins possess an elite secondary. Despite this, Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken's influence will likely make Baltimore a more pass-friendly team. Furthermore, Rashod Bateman's ability to beat Xavien Howard for a big play last season showcases his potential to excel in this matchup.

Although Zay Flowers is a rookie, I anticipate him earning a significant role by the end of the season. As a result, Baltimore's receiving corps possesses the firepower to score points down the field consistently; at its cost, it’s an easy mini stack to get.

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears

In the harsh conditions of Chicago during December, passing attacks often struggle, so I intend to leverage a mini-stack strategy focused on the run game. Led by the highly skilled play-caller Arthur Smith, the Atlanta Falcons are expected to utilize the talented Bijan Robinson heavily. With his dynamic abilities, Justin Fields will continue to excel as a dual-threat quarterback, and the Falcons' transition to the New Orleans Saints' scheme under new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen plays into Fields' favor.

The Saints have traditionally employed a lot of man coverage, and this type of defense can provide ample opportunities for a mobile quarterback like Fields. Additionally, it's doubtful the Falcons possess the defensive line personnel capable of containing a running quarterback of Fields' caliber. By capitalizing on these factors, the run-focused approach involving Robinson and Fields has a promising outlook.

Narratives to Fade

Bengals/Chiefs Shoot out

The Kansas City Chiefs secondary has struggled by giving up passing touchdowns, but that’s because teams are usually trailing against them. The Cincinnati Bengals, as a whole, have not been a team to stack against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are likely to employ a lot of two-high coverage, which limits the big scoring opportunities for the Bengals' roster.

Therefore, the average draft position of the top players in this game does not align with my preferred strategy for building a stack. Contrary to the anticipated shootout narrative, I believe this game will not live up to the high-scoring expectations often associated with these two quarterbacks.

Derrick Henry vs. Texans

The Houston Texans are poised for a significant transformation under new coach DeMeco Ryans' defensive scheme. He led one of the NFL's top run defenses with the 49ers last season. With the acquisitions of players like Will Anderson, Jimmie Ward, Sheldon Rankins, Hassan Ridgeway and Denzel Perryman, the Texans have bolstered their defensive arsenal and are in a better spot to limit Derrick Henry.

Player Pool

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Jordan Vanek

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Jordan has been playing DFS since 2016 and started writing content at the end of 2020. While playing DFS, he has managed multiple top 10 finishes in NFL, college football, baseball, basketball and NASCAR.