Fantasy
9/30/22
7 min read
2022 Week 4 DFS High Stakes Advice from a Milly Maker Winner
In Week 3, I officially secured my first seat in the DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship! The main slate was rough, with low scoring outputs across the league and chalky players not performing to expectations. But I smashed on the Sunday Night Showdown between the Broncos and the 49ers.
Week 4 looks ugly too, with the Lions vs. Seahawks and Browns vs. Falcons being two of the highest O/U on the slate. Every week I evaluate all the games, and I’ll find one or two games that I think have low-key shootout potential. Whether I’m stacking those games or just one-offing certain players, it’s a great way to separate yourself from the field. If you’re a tournament player like me, you play for first place, and to finish at the top you need to be just a little different than the players you’re going up against.
Contrary to most DFS pros, I don’t usually run 150 lineups or use an optimizer. I hand build one or two of my favorite lineups using my own projections and enter them into multiple tournaments. I typically play all the Milly Makers, a few single-entry contests, and I’ll dabble in the Satellites & Qualifiers.
Having a strategy is very important when you’re playing DFS, especially since you’ll be going up against some of the best players in the country. After reading this, you can check out my article “Anatomy of Winning a GPP” to see my strategy for my Milly Maker lineup in Week 3 of last year.
VALUES
1. RB Khalil Herbert $5,700 — As I was preparing for this article, I got an update that David Montgomery has officially been ruled out this Sunday. Insert Khalil Herbert, who will be facing a New York Giants defense that is currently giving up 5.25 YPC. Herbert has shown some promise going back to last year when he stepped in for Montgomery. Last week against the Texans he had 20 rushing attempts for 157 and two scores. We know the Bears are a team that loves to run the ball, and they’re facing a defense that is at the way bottom in terms of rushing defense efficiency. At $5,700, he’ll probably be chalk, but this is good chalk in a smash spot.
2. RB Jamaal Williams $6,100 — I think at this point, it’s safe to say I’ll be eating chalk at the running back position this Sunday, and I am OK with that. D’Andre Swift is probably not going to play this Sunday against the Seahawks, which means Williams will receive the bulk of the backfield touches. The Seahawks are also one of the worst teams against the run this year, giving up 4.91 YPC. Craig Reynolds is another guy that will get some run, and if you watched Hard Knocks this offseason, you know the coaches love him. However, the Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Amon Ra St. Brown has also been ruled out, so I think both running backs will be able to produce some very solid numbers this Sunday.
3. WR Ceedee Lamb $6,700 — The Washington Commanders' secondary has been horrific the first three weeks of this season. They’ve allowed eight passing touchdowns with only one interception thus far. Christian Kirk, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Devonta Smith have absolutely torched these guys. Lamb has seen 11+ targets in every game so far this season. He has struggled with some big drops, including a deep shot on Monday night that probably would’ve been a touchdown. However, he’s still one of the most talented receivers in the game, and he is in position to feast against his division rival at home in Jerry's World. I think we all got a little nervous for this offense when Dak went down, but Cooper Rush is making his case to potentially be a starting QB in this league one day.
Honorable Mention
1. WR Tyler Lockett — $5,900
2. WR DJ Chark — $5,000
3. RB Dameon Pierce — $5,600
STUDS
1. RB Saquon Barkley $8,000 — I’m taking a deep breath here, soaking the moment in. I was all over Saquon all offseason, and I’m just going to keep hammering it on everyone who doubted him! He is the RB1 for 2022 so far! How did we not see this coming? In my opinion he is the most talented running back in the NFL today. Now that we’ve seen him healthy and running with some explosiveness, it’s very easy to trust him, In Week 1, I wrote about him in the value section, as his price was $6,100. I talked about how I thought his price by the end of the year will be closer to $9,000, and we are almost there, but not quite. This week he’ll be facing the Chicago Bears, who are currently giving up 4.76 YPC, which is in the bottom half of the NFL. The Giants are also at home in a game where they’re favored by three points. I understand the O/U is under 40 points, but oddly enough I like both running backs in this game because they are both likely going to see 20 opportunities each, and both run defenses are poor. I never like to take two running backs against each other, but in this situation I might just do it.
2. WR Michael Pittman Jr. $7,200 — The Colts' offense has struggled mightily through the first three weeks of the season. However, we know who the passing game revolves around – Michael Pittman. He missed Week 2 with an injury, but in the two games he’s played, he has 17 receptions for 193 yards and a touchdown. The Tennessee Titans are another team I am going to be attacking through the air this year. Last week I was all over Mack Hollins at his price, even including him in my main lineup. This is a secondary that’s given up some huge plays so far. They’ve allowed eight touchdowns already and they’ll be on the road this week in the Colts' dome. Pittman should have a minimum of 8+ receptions with the volume he's seeing as the alpha WR in this offense. I expect some big plays to be made, and even though Matt Ryan has not looked good, the Titans might make him look like the old Matty Ice.
3. QB Josh Allen $8,400 — I never like to spend this much on a QB ever. But this Allen is a different animal. He’s one of the best passers in the NFL, and he also provides a rushing floor to give you some extra security. Make no mistake, Josh Allen is the frontrunner for MVP so far, and for good reason. This is a game I am very interested in game stacking even though it could get super expensive. You can get different here if you pair him a guy like Gabe Davis for $6,600, who can take the top off the defense and has the potential to break the slate. Coming back with either Bateman or Duvernay will make it easier to build lineups without destroying your team’s salary. This is a week where you don’t need to get too cute. Eat the chalk in some spots and get different with the more obvious game stack of the week.
Punts
1. WR Alec Pierce — $3,900
2. TE Robert Tonyan — $3,500
3. QB Cooper Rush — $5,300
Favorite Game Stacks
1. Baltimore @ Buffalo, O/U 51
2. Seattle @ Detroit, O/U 47.5
3. Cleveland @ Atlanta, O/U 47.5
4. Jacksonville @ Philadelphia, O/U 45.5
5. Washington @ Dallas, O/U 41
Reach out to me via Twitter if you have any questions or just need some advice! @Lordmattyice
Good luck!
WATCH MORE: The Week 4 Player Prop Happy Hour
