Week 8 Fantasy Overreactions

Week 9 Overreactions

Welcome to Week 8 Fantasy Overreactions! The day or two after the dust settles during the NFL season, meaning that we can take any occurrence from Sunday or Monday and make a completely wild narrative with it. We also want to make bold claims to remain ahead of the curve!

Every week, we’re going to identify five of these potential overreactions from the week’s NFL action. While these are just our opinions, feel free to use your own thoughts on each narrative. The storylines have been played out, now it’s our job to decide if we feel the story is fact or fiction.

The stories were aplenty this week: There are no more undefeated teams in the NFL, Derrick Henry and Jameis Winston both went down with season-ending injuries, Mike White became the first Jets quarterback to throw for over 400 yards in over 20 years, and so much more from Sunday’s action.

All of this has led to some great overreactions. So as we will do each week, it’s now time to react to the potential overreactions! 

1) Alvin Kamara should be downgraded with the loss of Jameis Winston


We’ve seen this story before. Kamara loses his starting quarterback and his production takes a dip. In Weeks 9-12 in 2020 when Drew Brees went down, Kamara had 50 carries in four games (12.5 per game) but only 10 receptions on 16 targets. If you take out Week 12, those numbers are only 3 receptions on 6 targets in three games. The quarterback then? That was Taysom Hill, who is expected to return from his concussion to start for the Saints in Week 9.

Kamara has been averaging a career-high 19 carries per game, but only four receptions per game and has not been used in the passing game as we’ve seen in years past. The Saints also brought in Mark Ingram, which his reunion with the Saints will take Kamara off the field more. We saw that in the first game with Kamara finishing with 23 touches for 76 yards (67% of the snaps) and Ingram finishing with 8 touches for 53 yards (29% of the snaps). Boom and Zoom will be doing this the rest of the season.

2) You should avoid playing an Eagles Running Back if possible


Miles Sanders was averaging only 8 touches over 5 1/2 games before going down with an injury. That’s not carries, that’s total touches per game. The Eagles on the ground had only scored three rushing touchdowns combined in Weeks 1-7, In Week 8 alone, the Eagles running backs combined for four rushing touchdowns, while posting season-high marks in carries (37) and rushing yards (144).

This occurred while the EAgles attempted a season-low 16 passing attempts and had three different running backs receive at least 12 carries. There seems to be no “lead back” in this backfield with touchdowns seemingly random from this team. You can’t play any of these Eagles’ running backs and expect any type of consistency.


3) You should SELL Michael Carter  


I was a big Michael Carter fan heading into the season, having him as a borderline Top 24 Running Back. Carter stays low to the ground, has excellent patience, and follows his blockers, which is perfect for the zone run scheme the Jets try and run. He has great one-cut running, excellent vision, escapability, and lateral agility. Carter finally put that on display, running for a game-high 77 yards on 15 carries with a touchdown in Week 8 against Cincinnati.

Carter’s work as a receiver is what has been the most impressive. Carter leads all running backs over his last two games, with 17 catches for 162 yards on a whopping 23 targets. He’s become a great check-down option for QB Mike White and will be a lock in your fantasy lineups for many weeks going forward.

4) Deebo Samuel is a Top-5 fantasy wide receiver 


Deebo Samuel is what I like to call a YAC-Daddy. These are players that make their quarterback look good by gaining a lot of yards after the catch. Samuel currently ranks only behind Cooper Kupp in terms of most yards after the catch this season, with his 83-yard screen pass showing this fully on display in Week 8. Samuel has been so dominant that his 819 receiving yards are the most in 49ers’ history in the first seven games of a season, breaking HOFer Jerry Rice’s record of 781 set in 1986.

Samuel is currently the WR5 but WR2 in terms of fantasy points per game. He is averaging 10.5 targets per game and a whopping 34.5% of the team’s overall target. Samuel’s volume, efficiency, and talent make him a slam-dunk top 5 WR rest of the season as long as he’s healthy.

5) Whoever replaces Titans RB Derrick Henry will not be fantasy-relevant 


As of this writing, the Titans have brought in 36-year old Adrian Peterson to go along with Jeremy McNichols. We don’t know if one of those two becomes a bell-cow, or they remain depth to mix into a bigger name coming in. Either way, the Titans have an identity of play-action to set up the deep passing game, and I don’t expect them to get away from their formula to success.

Derrick Henry was receiving nearly 29 touches per game in this offense, and a player even receiving 15-20 of those touches will automatically become fantasy-relevant, even if it’s 50% of King Henry’s production. Keep an eye on the waiver wire and news from the NFL trade deadline.

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