Breakdowns
10/11/21
6 min read
Ja’Marr Chase is Dynasty WR1: Week 5 Fantasy Overreactions
Welcome to Week 5 Fantasy Overreactions! The day or two after the dust settles during the NFL season, meaning that we can take any occurrence from Sunday or Monday and make a completely wild narrative with it. We also want to make bold claims to remain ahead of the curve!
Every week, we’re going to identify five of these potential overreactions from the week's NFL action. While these are just our opinions, feel free to use your own thoughts on each narrative. The storylines have been played out, now it's our job to decide if we feel the story is fact or fiction.
The stories were aplenty this week: Russell Wilson will miss the next two months of the season with a gruesome finger injury. We had multiple key Giants leave their loss against Dallas with various injuries. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs no longer look like the class of the AFC. We also had a game that featured five missed go-ahead or potential game-winning field goals.
All of this has led to some great overreactions. So as we will do each week, it’s now time to react to the potential overreactions!
1) DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are now both WR2s
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Anytime you lose one of the five best quarterbacks in the game, your entire offense is going to take a hit. The question becomes, just how much of a hit can we expect from the downgrade in quarterback from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith? The former 2nd round pick has bounced around between four different teams in his career and took meaningful snaps for the first time since 2017.
When Smith came in during the middle of the 3rd quarter in relief of Wilson, he targeted Metcalf four times and he turned in three receptions for fifty-four yards and a touchdown. Conversely, Lockett was also targeted four times but had only one catch for seven yards and an interception. While Metcalf obviously had the better game, it was reassuring to see both still targeted equally.
Smith will now have a 10 days to prepare with a game plan built around his skill set, which should help the Seahawks offense stay competent. The problem is that Wilson throws THE BEST deep ball in the game, and that hurts players like Metcalf and Lockett who have their most success on deep completions and them getting behind the defense. Expect a lot shorter to intermediate routes while Wilson is sidelined which should affect the overall upside of these two wide receivers.
2) Ja'Marr Chase is the Dynasty WR1
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Ja'Marr Chase has looked absolutely phenomenal and there's no question about that. Chase is currently the WR7, averaging 19.7 fantasy points per game and has an incredible connection with his former college quarterback Joe Burrow. Chase already has five touchdowns through five games, with four of them being 30-plus yard scores. Ja'Marr Chase is easily my WR2 in dynasty formats at just 21 years old.
Why is he not number one? Let us not forget the 22-year old that went into the record books with the Minnesota Vikings last season. Justin Jefferson is only one year older, but already has a 1,400 receiving yard season as a rookie under his belt, along with a Pro-Bowl. This season in which Jefferson hasn't seemed to unlock what he had last season, he is still WR8 (just behind Chase) at 19.5 fantasy points per game. He's less than one point behind Chase with two less touchdowns. Jefferson should still be your Dynasty WR1 but Chase isn't far behind.
3) Dawson Knox is a Top 5 TE going forward
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Ladies and gentlemen, the second-best tight end in terms of fantasy points is not Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, or Kyle Pitts. It is Dawson Knox and boy does he look good in this new-look Buffalo offense. Knox has been remarkably consistent, having at least three targets and a touchdown catch in four straight games. Knox's five touchdowns leads the position and his 261 receiving yards rank fifth.
Knox currently ranks fourth on the team in terms of targets at 24 (13.41%) but he's actually second in red zone targets with eight (19.51%) and has three of his five touchdowns in that area. He's become a trusted weapon of Josh Allen and that alone is a scary thought. He's a locked-in TE1 every week and his touchdown upside has me ranking him in the top 5 at the position week in and week out.
4) Damien Harris will not be the No. 1 RB for the Patriots in Week 6
Verdict: OVERREACTION
There are times we look at a box score and it doesn't quite tell the whole story. Damien Harris' fantasy day is an example of this to a tee. Harris, who is currently the RB40 in PPR formats, finished with 14 carries for 58 yards (4.1 ypc) and a touchdown against the Texans on Sunday. He also lost a fumble. That fumble not only cost him points, but it took away what should have been ruled a touchdown as called on the field. All of a sudden, Harris' 9.8 point fantasy day turns into 17.8 fantasy points and Harris is the RB30 instead of RB40.
The fumbles on a Bill Belichick-coached team will definitely leave you concerned. He also is fighting a rib injury which fogs things up a bit further. Harris has been playing well all season on a team that has little to no talent on the offensive side of the ball and this is one change that I would expect to not happen anytime soon. Harris is the running back in this backfield you'll want for Week 6 (assuming health) and I wouldn't worry about any other player taking carries away next week.
5) Chase Edmonds has the potential to finish as a Top-15 PPR RB
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
A big part of the only undefeated team left in the NFL, Chase Edmonds has taken a leap from a bench stash with flex appeal only in the case of injury, to a set it and forget it RB2. Going into Week 5, Edmonds actually LED THE TEAM in catches and overall touches.
After Week 5, Edmonds still remains third on the team in target share (16.56%), second in catches (23), while still receiving 34% of the carries. He's very involved on the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, and he's RB20 having scored 0 touchdowns. That is what we like to call an outlier. The moment positive touchdown regression starts for Edmonds, he should rocket up the rankings and become a borderline RB1 for your team for most weeks. This type of volume on the ground and through the air will always lead to great fantasy results.
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