Breakdowns
11/22/21
6 min read
Week 11 Fantasy Overreactions: It's Time to Worry About Tannehill
Welcome to Week 11 Fantasy Overreactions! The day or two after the dust settles during the NFL season, meaning that we can take any occurrence from Sunday or Monday and make a completely wild narrative with it. We also want to make bold claims to remain ahead of the curve!
Every week, we’re going to identify five of these potential overreactions from the week's NFL action. While these are just our opinions, feel free to use your own thoughts on each narrative. The storylines have been played out, now it's our job to decide if we feel the story is fact or fiction.
The stories were aplenty this week: The No. 1 seeds in both the AFC and NFC both lost to under .500 teams. The Buffalo Bills got shellshocked at home by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. The Chiefs look very much like they regained their mojo & Seattle seems to have forgotten how to score. All that and more in an exciting Week 11!
All of this has led to some great overreactions. So as we will do each week, it’s now time to react to the potential overreactions!Â
1) Jonathan Taylor should be the 1.01 in 2022 Fantasy Drafts
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I'm sorry to those that had to face Jonathan Taylor in your fantasy matchups. Taylor had a career-high 32 carries for 185 yards and scored FIVE touchdowns in the Colts' 41-15 thumping of the Buffalo Bills. Taylor became just the 18th player in NFL history to score five touchdowns and the sixth running back over the last 30 years to do so in a game according to ESPN stats and info. Jonathan Taylor has been absolutely on fire, having eight consecutive games with 100 or more yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.
Things really seem to be coming together for Taylor as he's also recorded 20 carries or more in back-to-back games for the first time this season. The argument next year will be Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, or Derrick Henry as the first pick in your drafts next year. Henry will be 28 when the next season begins and coming off a major foot injury. McCaffrey is most likely other candidates along with Taylor, but Taylor is younger and has had less of an injury track record to his name.
You can't go wrong with Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor as your first pick next year, but the fact that Taylor has entered that discussion is not crazy.
2) Cam Newton will help unlock this Carolina offense
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
You can just feel the energy that Newton seemed to inject into this team on the field. With Newton's return, it seemed to unlock an element to this offense that seemed to be missing. D.J. Moore had 50 yards or more for the first time since Week 8 and his first touchdown since Week 4. His 16 fantasy points were the most since Week 4. Meanwhile, the Panthers' other big weapons Christian McCaffrey scored 24.9 fantasy points, where he recorded 17 touches for 119 yards and a touchdown through the air.
Cam Newton's final line of 21 of 27 for two touchdowns with 46 rushing yards isn't flashy, but it's a huge step up from Carolina was getting at the QB position. Most importantly, Newton didn't turn the ball over and allowed Carolina to stay in this game. While Cam Newton won't be a top-tier QB at this point in his career, he should be a help for this Panthers offense.
3) It's time to worry if you roster Ryan Tannehill
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I put out a tweet earlier in the week about Tannehill potentially elevating from his QB11 status to creeping up into the top 7 or 8. I was intrigued with Tannehill's rushing upside as Tannehill had rushed for 5 TDs this season while ranking T-3rd among QBs averaging 5.6 ypc. 3 of his TDs had come in the last 4 games, the point in which Derrick Henry got hurt. Well, in this game against the woeful Texans, not only was the rushing upside not there, but Tannehill had the first four-interception game of his career.
Tannehill isn't playing well and without the threat of Derrick Henry for the play-action, his deep ball throws are suffering. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Tannehill now has thrown four touchdown passes against seven interceptions this season on passes of 10-plus air yards. The rushing is what has made Tannehill fantasy-relevant over these last few weeks, but it's too hard to ignore the Titans' passing game struggles. I'm benching Tannehill for now if I have him.
4) The Bears offense would be better Andy Dalton back at the helm
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Recency bias can be a crazy thing sometimes. Andy Dalton came in this game to relieve the injured Justin Fields and put up 201 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, with a 107.3 passer rating in the close defeat to the Ravens. In the process, Darnell Mooney set a career-high with 16 targets and recorded 26.1 fantasy points.
While the Bears offense seemed to pick up, Fields masks the offensive line problems the Bears consistently have in protecting the pass, and the Ravens weak pass rush is something the Bears won't have the luxury to face each and every week. Fields needs to continue to grow in this offense and is the better quarterback for the Bears right now.
5) The 49ers offense should be able to consistently support Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The trio of pass catchers for the 49ers combined to score a combined 51.3 PPR fantasy points against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This was the first game this season in which all three players scored double-digit PPR points in the same game. This was also the first game all three scored a touchdown in the same game as well.
This offense only got a combined 13.3 fantasy points from their running backs not named Deebo Samuel in this game. Very few for a team that likes to establish the run as its identity. While there will be weeks that each of these players goes off, I would not bank that all three will be consistently supported the rest of the season. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle should be started with confidence, while Aiyuk will be more of a boom-bust play.
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