The 33rd Team introduced the Big Play Index last season to show how NFL teams stack up in terms of big plays produced and big plays allowed.
The Big Play Index has a new and improved outlook with the help of Marc Trestman. When Trestman coached in the NFL, his definition of a “Big Play” was a run of 10-plus yards and/or a pass of 16-plus yards. Ultimately, BPI correlates the ability to create explosive plays, while also limiting the opponent, and the success of the team (based on wins).
The New England Patriots now are the clear leaders in Big Play differential, sitting eight spots higher than any other team. The key to this has been limiting big plays against, as they’re one of the best at that both offensively and defensively.
BPI Mismatch Of the Week:
Jaguars vs Texans
A mismatch between two 2-11 teams? How is that possible? It’s the same as every week. The Houston Texans are not only unable to stop big plays but they have accounted for 58 total big plays on offense. That is more than half the number of big plays as 12 other teams in the NFL (with Vikings as No. 1). The Jaguars, the Texans opponent this week, hav actually excelled on defense at stopping big plays. They rank as a top 10 defense in big plays against. While their offense has been an issue, they still have 30 more big plays than the Texans on the season. Now, with Urban Meyer gone, the Jaguars are the easy favorite in this matchup.
The BPI predicts no major upsets this week but can suggest that the Bengals have a slight advantage over the Broncos in their matchup. They rank right next to each other in the BPI. The Bengals strength on offense is big plays through the air while the Broncos are on the ground. The Broncos are middle of the pack in allowing explosives through the air, while the Bengals are stout against the run (3rd least big plays allowed via run), which gives a slight edge.