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Wild Card Underdog High/Low Picks: 49ers’ Top Producers Good Picks vs. Seahawks

Wild Card Underdog High/Low Picks

Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline 11 Wild-Card Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend’s games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

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Tom Brady HIGHER than 42.5 Pass Attempts – Josh Larky

  • Tampa Bay’s path to victory comes through the passing game, not the running game.
    • Tampa averages the fewest yards per carry in the entire NFL.
  • Let’s remove Week 18 since Brady played only played one half.
    • He had at least 42 pass attempts in 13 of 14 games prior to Week 18.
  • Brady averaged 47 attempts per game over that 14-game span, via The Edge.

Brock Purdy HIGHER than 15.95 Fantasy Points – Ben Wolby

  • Purdy has more than 15.95 fantasy points in every game he’s started for the 49ers.
  • Quarterbacks have averaged 16 fantasy points per game against the Seahawks this year.
  • Purdy’s offense has far too much talent to not top this number, as San Francisco leads the NFL in offensive points scored since his takeover in Week 14.

Rachaad White LOWER than 38.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • White has been HIGHER than this number in just three of 17 games.
  • Two of those three games were against Seattle and Cleveland, two of the NFL’s absolute worst run defenses.
  • White has topped this number just once in the past six weeks.
  • It’s likely that the team leans more heavily on Leonard Fournette, given his playoff experience.
    • Fournette played just three snaps last week and had one touch. The Buccaneers are resting him for Monday night’s game against Dallas.
  • Dallas is the fifth-best run defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Mike Gesicki HIGHER than 17.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Gesicki ran at least 20 routes in back-to-back games for the first time since Week 12, and he has topped this number in three straight.
  • Gesicki has been most productive this season with Skylar Thompson at QB. His 2022 statistics with each QB are shown below, courtesy of TruMedia.
Passer Routes Targets (Rec) Targets per Route Run Receiving Yards Target Share
S. Thompson 77 12 (7) 15.6% 98 12.00%
T. Bridgewater 57 9 (7) 15.8% 67 12.00%
T. Tagovailoa 212 31 (18) 14.6% 197 8.00%
  • In both of Skylar Thompson’s starts this year (Weeks 6 and 18), Gesicki has topped this number.
  • The Bills are solid against the TE position, but it’s a low enough total that it shouldn’t matter. They’ve allowed the 12th-most receptions to the position in the regular season, and Gesicki should see an uptick in targets given his QB situation. 

Trenton Irwin HIGHER than 5.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Irwin has taken snaps in nine games this year.
  • He has at least five receiving yards in every game, with eight of nine being at least 12 receiving yards.

 

Travis Etienne HIGHER than 77.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Etienne has at least 83 rushing yards in six of 11 games since being named the starter.
  • He left after five snaps in the Baltimore game, then faced the Titans’ elite run defense twice in that span.
    • So you *could* say he’s hit this number in six of eight realistic games.
  • The Chargers allow a league-high 5.6 YPC to RBs, via The Edge.

George Kittle HIGHER than 3.5 Receptions – Ben Wolby

  • He has topped this in all of the games Brock Purdy has started.
  • Seattle is the worst team in the NFL at guarding TEs.
    • Seattle allowed the second-most receiving yards to TEs overall.
    • Kittle should be a big part of the 49ers’ gameplan.
  • Seattle runs the second-highest amount of zone defense in the NFL.
    • Kittle’s targets per route run rate goes from 16% against man coverage to 20% against zone coverage, via The Edge.

Christian McCaffrey LOWER than 16.5 Rushing Attempts + Elijah Mitchell HIGHER than 38.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Pair these heavily correlated lines together on Underdog.
  • McCaffrey has fewer than 16.5 rush attempts in 12 of 17 games.
  • In four games where McCaffrey and Mitchell have overlapped this year, McCaffrey has 14 or fewer carries in all of them.
  • Mitchell has at least 41 rushing yards in four of five games.
  • He was LOWER than 38.5 rushing yards against the Saints, when he was hurt after seven carries and 35 yards (5.0 YPC).
  • The Seahawks allow 4.7 yards per carry to RBs, ninth-most in the NFL, via The Edge.

Tyler Boyd HIGHER than 35.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • In games where Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins start, Tyler Boyd averages just below 60 yards per game.
  • The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most yards to WR through the regular season, per The Edge.
  • Boyd had 51 yards last week against the Ravens.

Keenan Allen HIGHER than 76.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Since returning from injury in Week 11, Allen’s played eight games.
  • He has at least 86 receiving yards in six of those eight.
  • Mike Williams is questionable (back), and if he even plays, he’s likely not 100%.
  • The Jaguars allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the slot during the regular season, via The Edge, so Allen has a plus matchup.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Wild Card Underdog High/Low Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.

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