Betting
10/29/22
8 min read
Week 8 Betting Matchups: Spreads, Lines, Picks and Predictions
I provide in-depth analysis on every game, every week from a sports betting perspective. You can find all of those articles and a short summary for each game right here. The links for each game will bring you to that contest’s matchup article. The Monday night game will be updated on Sunday.
If you’re still alive in your Survivor Pool, check this out.
London Game: Broncos at Jaguars
Opening Spread: Jaguars -3.5
Opening Game Total: 39.5
Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (21.5), Broncos (18)
Weather: Outdoors, chance for rain
The Broncos have struggled enough that Jerry Jeudy and Bradley Chubb are both in trade rumors. Russell Wilson is starting despite hamstring and shoulder injuries. He’ll be facing a Jaguars front four that has a significant advantage against a Broncos offensive line that will be down both of their offensive tackles. I have not bet this game directly, but I lean towards the Jaguars side.
Bears at Cowboys
Opening Spread: Cowboys -10
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: Cowboys (26.25), Bears (16.25)
Weather: Indoors
If the Cowboys can jump out to enough of a lead where the Bears will be forced to throw late, the Dallas pass rush could potentially derail this game. I’m taking the Cowboys in at least one of my active survivor pool entries. I’m also considering them as an ATS tournament option, for a number of reasons that I go in-depth on in my matchups column linked above.
Steelers at Eagles
Opening Spread: Eagles -11
Opening Game Total: 43.5
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (27.25), Steelers (16.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Eagles have the league’s best roster and they are coming off their bye to face a struggling Steelers team. This is a tough draw for Kenny Pickett, as he’ll be facing yet another top-ten defense with a high-end pass rush. I’m going to take the Eagles in one of my survivor pools this week. I’m still undecided on this game from an ATS perspective.
Cardinals at Vikings
Opening Spread: Vikings -3.5
Opening Game Total: 49
Opening Team Totals: Vikings (26.25), Cardinals (22.75)
Weather: Dome
This game has some interesting shootout potential as both offenses have a path to exceeding expectations. The Vikings pass rush is the primary obstacle to that type of outcome.
Dolphins at Lions
Opening Spread: Lions +3
Opening Game Total: 49.5
Team Totals: Lions (23.25), Dolphins (26.25)
Weather: Dome
This is another game with interesting shootout potential that I’ll be stacking in DFS this weekend. I could see the Lions coming out ultra-aggressive in this contest, where they are essentially playing with house money. This type of approach made them more dangerous against the Rams last year. That thought is why I haven’t locked in Miami in one of my ATS tournament entries yet where I can get them at a small value.
Patriots at Jets
Opening Spread: Jets +1.5
Opening Game Total: 41
Opening Team Totals: Jets (19.75), Patriots (21.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
I bet the Patriots earlier this week and I’ll take them in at least one of my ATS tournament entries. This is a potential correction spot for New England after an embarrassing loss, while the Jets are riding a four-game win streak. New York continues to have abnormal injury issues at offensive tackle.
Raiders at Saints
Opening Spread: Saints +2
Opening Game Total: 48
Opening Team Totals: Saints (23), Raiders (25)
Weather: Dome
The Saints front four has an edge in the trenches in this matchup, but ultimately I like the Raiders, who have played much better than their 2-4 record would indicate. I’m going to take the Raiders as a slight favorite in at least one of my ATS tournament entries.
Panthers at Falcons
Opening Spread: Falcons -6
Opening Game Total: 41.5
Opening Team Totals: Falcons (24), Panthers (18)
Weather: Dome
The Falcons opened as 6-point favorites and that number was immediately bet down. The winner of this game will sit on top of the NFC South heading into Week 9. I’ll be staying away from this one against the spread.
Titans at Texans
Opening Spread: Texans +3.5
Opening Game Total: 41
Team Totals: Texans (18.75), Titans (22.25)
Weather: Dome
The Texans have a number of relevant players still on the injury report. If the bulk of that group trends towards playing this Sunday, I will take the Texans as a slight underdog in at least one of my ATS pools.
Commanders at Colts
Opening Spread: Colts -4
Opening Game Total: 41.5
Opening Team Totals: Colts (22.75), Commanders (18.75)
Weather: Dome
I am not a Sam Ehlinger guy, but I could see him playing well behind a solid game plan in this contest. That said, I will either take the Washington side or pass here.
Giants at Seahawks
Opening Spread: Seahawks -2.5
Opening Game Total: 46.5
Team Totals: Seahawks (24.5), Giants (22)
Weather: Outdoors, solid chance of rain
Early in the week I expected the Giants to win this game but that stance has reversed some as the week has progressed. That said, if D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both end up missing this contest, I will take the Giants in an ATS tournament where I can get them at +3.5. In that outcome the Seahawks offensive ceiling will be greatly reduced.
49ers at Rams
Opening Spread: Rams +2
Opening Game Total: 42
Team Totals: Rams (20), 49ers (22)
Weather: Hybrid stadium, no weather concerns
I’m leaning towards the Rams here currently as the 49ers pass rush has been reduced by injuries and Deebo Samuel will miss this contest. Los Angeles is also coming off their bye and has fewer injury issues than San Francisco.
SNF: Packers at Bills
The idea of an Aaron Rodgers led team getting 10.5 points in a desperation game has some appeal. With that said, the Bills are now a perennial title contender and they’ll be coming off their bye for this primetime matchup. There’s no real reason to believe that the Packers reduced group of pass catchers is going to break out against a team like the Bills, but Green Bay does have a capable defense. I took Robert Tonyan over 3.5 receptions at +135 odds on our Friday Player Prop Happy Hour show.
MNF: Bengals at Browns
The Bengals have had a rock-solid run defense the last couple of years, but they are down DT D.J. Reader. The Browns top-five offensive line that drives their premium running game has an advantage in this contest. Additionally, Ja’Marr Chase is out which reduces the ceiling of the Bengals lethal offense. I still have to do my deep dive in this contest, but Browns +3.5 in a desperation game has some appeal. Betting against Joe Burrow in primetime is why I’m still on the fence here.
