Betting
10/21/22
9 min read
Week 7 Betting Matchups: Spreads, Lines, Picks and Predictions
I provide in-depth analysis on every game, every week from a sports betting perspective. You can find all of those articles and a short summary for each game right here. The links for each game will bring you to that contest’s matchup article. Sunday Night and Monday Night Football will be updated on Saturday.
If you’re still alive in your Survivor Pool, check this out.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Opening Spread: Cowboys -7
Opening Game Total: 47.5
Opening Team Totals: Cowboys (27.25), Lions (20.25)
Weather: Indoors
Dak Prescott returns to action with the best possible matchup against the Lions league-worst defense. Prescott is returning from a multi-week absence due to an injury on his throwing hand. An important variable in this game is whether or not Prescott comes out a little rusty. Another major variable in this game is the Lions high-end offensive line’s ability to mitigate the Cowboys premium pass rush. If Detroit’s line holds up, the Lions are an interesting option as a significant underdog. If you’re playing DFS on the main slate, this is a game that you need to get right.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Opening Spread: Panthers +10
Opening Game Total: 41
Opening Team Totals: Panthers (15.5), Buccaneers (25.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Christian McCaffrey trade has officially signaled the Panthers surrender of the 2022 campaign. That move has made the already 10-point road favorite Buccaneers a 13-point plus road favorite. P.J. Walker has an astonishingly low 156.5 yards passing over/ under on DraftKings right now. That number sums up the current state of the Carolina Panthers. It’s going to be very hard for interim coach Steve Wilks to maintain morale in this situation. For me, I’m either betting on the Buccaneers as a significant road favorite or leaving this one alone. I’m leaning towards the latter currently, as 13-points is a lot for a struggling team like Tampa Bay.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Opening Spread: Titans -2.5
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: Titans (22.5), Colts (20)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
After a very slow start, the Colts have surged over the last few weeks to a 3-2-1 record. The Titans are on top of the AFC South with a 3-2 record, they are coming off their bye, and they have beaten the Colts in four of their last five matchups. Colts stud linebacker Shaquille Leonard will be out for yet another game while Tennessee enters this contest as fresh as they can be. I will take the Titans in at least one of my ATS tournament entries.
N.Y. Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening Spread: Jaguars -3.
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (22.75), Giants (19.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
As Chris Farley and I discussed on Betting the NFL on Monday, Jaguars -2.5 caught our attention. The line is now Jaguars -3, and I can get to that type of outcome from a matchups perspective. The Jaguars are on my radar as a potential tournament entry, and I love them as a contrarian option in winner pools as favorites are rarely the less popular pick. At the bottom of this column I have my ATS record listed at 21-9 through the first six weeks. That comes from my main tournament entry, where I also directly bet every game that I take. I also have a 20-10 tournament entry, and I am leaning toward taking the Jaguars in that one.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Opening Spread: Ravens -6.5
Opening Game Total: 46.5
Opening Team Totals: Ravens (26.5), Browns (20)
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain
As our Chris Farley has mentioned throughout the week, this Ravens team shouldn’t be a full 7-point favorite against most teams. The line has moved down to Ravens -6.5, where we are expecting more of a close, gritty contest. I’m considering the Browns as an ATS tournament entry this week.
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals
Opening Spread: Bengals -6
Opening Game Total: 45.5
Opening Team Totals: Bengals (25.75), Falcons (19.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Bengals are an interesting, likely contrarian survivor pool option this week. They’ll be facing the surprising Falcons who are coming off a decisive upset win against the 49ers last week. The Bengals host the Panthers in Week 9, which makes them a team I’ll save where I can in survivor pools. Against the spread, I’m either taking the Bengals or passing. I expect to at least mini-correlate this game in DFS this week, with Kyle Pitts or Drake London plus one of the Bengals skill position players.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders
Opening Spread: Commanders +5
Opening Game Total: 41.5
Opening Team Totals: Commanders (18.25), Packers (23.25)
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain
This is a game between two struggling teams that are both in real need of a win. I’m going to stay away from this game ATS because these are two of the teams I’ve had the worst read on through the first six games. That said, Green Bay has a significantly better roster than Washington and it’s hard to see them losing three games in a row before next week’s matchup with Buffalo.
N.Y. Jets at Denver Broncos
Opening Spread: Broncos -3
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Team Totals: Broncos (22.75), Jets (19.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
With Russell Wilson being a surprise inactive, Denver turns to Brett Rypien. This increases the viability of the Jets defense as a streaming option, and it will make them the overwhelming chalk at the position in DFS. From a betting perspective, this completely changes this game for me as I will now take the Jets in at least one of my ATS tournament entries.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Opening Spread: 49ers +3
Opening Game Total: 46.5
Opening Team Totals: 49ers (21.75), Chiefs (24.75)
Weather: Outdoors, some potential wind concerns
The Chiefs are a publicly backed road favorite against a 49ers team that has knocked off a lot of contending teams over the last few years. From a sports betting perspective I lean toward the 49ers, while from a matchups perspective I lean toward the Chiefs. That’s a recipe for me to stay away from against the spread.
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders
Opening Spread: Raiders -7
Opening Game Total: 44
Totals: Raiders (25.5), Texans (18.5)
Weather: Dome
This is a game that I’m going to avoid in survivor pools, as the Texans offensive line is well-equipped to deal with the Raiders high-end edge duo. Texans quarterback Davis Mills is in a good position to exceed expectations as a passer as well. I still think the Raiders win against the scrappy Texans, but I think they are more in danger of being upset than most of the other significant favorites on the slate. That also means Houston +7 is on my radar in ATS tournaments.
Seattle Seahawks at L.A. Chargers
Opening Spread: Chargers -7
Opening Game Total: 52.5
Opening Team Totals: Chargers (29.75), Seahawks (22.75)
Weather: Hybrid stadium, no weather concerns
The Chargers are an interesting semi-contrarian option in survivor pools this week. It’s in your best interest to check the Chargers schedule if you’re not using them in survivor pools because they have fewer appealing matchups left in that format than you might think. I will be looking to bet this game from a prop perspective, where I’ll have my eyes peeled for Austin Ekeler over receptions numbers (not yet out, I’d be thrilled with a 3.5 number) and Kenneth Walker’s over on rushing attempts (currently out at 15.5, which is better than I was expecting if you can get it at good juice).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
Opening Spread: Dolphins -7
Opening Game Total: 44
Opening Team Totals: Dolphins (25.5), Steelers (18.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
My matchups article will be up on Saturday for this contest, so I have not, as of yet, completely dove into this one. At first glance I’m surprised that Miami opened as a full 7-point favorite. That said, the uneven Steelers are coming off a major upset last week against the Buccaneers while Tua Tagovailoa returns to help stop the Dolphins three-game skid. My current lean is that this is a get-right game for Miami, but I’ll dive into that more for Saturday.
MNF: Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
This is an important one to get right in survivor pools, as there is a good chance that New England will be the most popular pick in the format. We can trust Bill Belichick’s defense to limit Chicago’s bottom-tier passing attack. That said, despite how well Bailey Zappe has played, betting on a quarterback making his third NFL start (assuming Mac Jones sits again) comes with some very real risk in survivor pools. I will take the Patriots with at least one of my entries, but I will not be overweight on them in the format.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12
Watch More: McCaffrey Trade Fantasy Impact
