Analysis
9/28/22
4 min read
Week 4 Thursday Night Football Player Props
Last week was a bad main Sunday slate. I only hit one of my six write-ups and three of my four additional props for a total of five out of 11.
That brings the total for the year to a 16-14-1 record. I am not freaking out just yet; the first few weeks are usually difficult to bet on, and I only got 54% of my props correct in Weeks 1-3 last season. Now, is when the real money starts getting made, so let’s get to the Thursday night player props! As always, props are listed in the order I like them with my favorite listed last.
Joe Burrow OVER 2.0 Pass TDs
This prop is not available on PrizePicks yet but is offered by Underdog. The Miami Dolphins run man coverage on 38.9% of plays, which is the second highest in the NFL this season. Of Burrow’s 149 dropbacks, 37 have been against man coverage. On those 37 dropbacks, he has thrown five of his six touchdowns. Therefore, on 25% of his dropbacks, he has scored 83% of his touchdowns.
If you find this play on any sportsbook at 1.5, it is a smash play. I am not playing this if it goes to 2.5 because I like the safe push potential of 2.0
Joe Mixon OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards
The bad news is Mixon is not the Bengals' predominant third-down back. Samaje Perine has run more than twice as many routes as Mixon on third down. The good news is Mixon is being targeted a lot on first and second down. Even when the Bengals were up two touchdowns last week against the Jets, Mixon still had three targets bringing his total to seven.
The Miami defense also got torched by Bills' RB Devin Singletary for nine receptions, 78 yards and a touchdown. I don’t expect that type of outing by Mixon, but over 18.5 looks like a good play. I would play this up to 23.5 but would not play it any higher.
Tyreek Hill OVER 75.5 Receiving Yards
I am playing this over whether it's Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater throwing to Tyreek Hill. This wouldn't be the case for most offenses, but Miami runs one of the most unique offenses in the league. Additionally, Bridgewater is only a season removed from starting. Before running into one of the league’s best defenses, Hill averaged 12.5 targets per game and 52 yards after the catch. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has shown he can creatively use Hill, so I am confident in this over. I would play it up to 80 receiving yards.
Week 4 Main Slate Bonus Prop
Tagovailoa’s injury designation makes it challenging to predict what will happen, so I will give a bonus prop for Sunday instead of a correlated play for Thursday night. I have a feeling this prop will move before Sunday, so here it is:
Rashaad Penny OVER 49.5 Rush yards
The Lions are one of the worst defenses against the run this season, allowing an average of five yards per rush. In a close game last week, Penny had 14 rushes, and rookie Kenneth Walker hasn't taken away many carries this season so that number should be stable.
In Week 2, Penny only had six rushes in a blowout loss to the 49ers, but I do not see that happening against a Lions team that has given up a league-high 93 points this season.
WATCH MORE: Jordan Vanek Tells You Whether To Start Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins in Fantasy This Week.
