Betting
9/29/22
6 min read
Week 4 Matchups: Betting Breakdowns for Every Game
Going forward, we’ll be putting all of my matchups columns in one centralized place, with short summaries on each game. Main slate games will be coming in throughout Friday, while Sunday Night and Monday Night Football will be in by Saturday. Games with live matchups columns come with active links. Here are my Week 4 breakdowns.
London: Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
Minnesota is an intriguing 2.5-point favorite on London’s neutral field. From a football sense, there is a lot to like about the Vikings, especially given some of the names on the Saints injury report. After a terrible showing in Carolina last week, though, New Orleans is in a classic bounce back spot against a Vikings team that is talented, but fortunate to be 2-1.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
You could argue that this is the most interesting game on the Week 4 slate, as it pits two MVP favorites against each other in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Allen leads the league in passing yards, while the Ravens have allowed the most passing yards through the first three weeks. If you’re considering a Baltimore bet, you need Baltimore’s healthier secondary to play much better than they have to this point.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Cooper Rush has kept the Cowboys season alive by going 2-0 in Dak Prescott’s absence. Coming off their Monday night win against the Giants, they’ll face a more talented division rival in Washington this week. The Commanders are coming off a beat down by the Eagles last week. I’m either going to take the Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog here in a bounce back spot or pass on this contest.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Sportsbooks are already starting to make the Eagles a more expensive bet, as they are 6.5-point favorites for the second week in a row. Jacksonville is coming off a blowout road win against the Chargers last week. I was bullish on the Jaguars entering the season, but expecting them to win two road games in a row against two of the most talented rosters in the league is a big ask. I’ll be avoiding this game from an ATS perspective.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
I’m interested in taking the Lions in one of my survivor pool entries this week against a talent-poor Seahawks roster. However, Detroit has enough significant players on their injury report to give me some pause. I’ll be finalizing my thoughts on this game in our live blog on Sunday morning.
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
The Chargers blowout loss to the Jaguars last week is among the very worst defeats that I’ve ever seen. Los Angeles lost their elite left tackle in Rashawn Slater and their premium pass rusher in Joey Bosa. Cornerback J.C. Jackson has already missed two games this season, and it looks like Keenan Allen might have had a setback in practice. I didn’t even mention that Justin Herbert is playing injured, and that he’s the sole reason the Chargers weren’t a sub-.500 team last season. After last week, we have to treat Brandon Staley’s staff as a strategic liability until proven otherwise for sports betting purposes. The Chargers were expected survivor chalk in Week 4 before the season started, but they cannot be trusted in that format in their present state.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts opened as 3-point home favorites but have moved past that key number to Colts -3.5. That’s where this line should be, given the state of Tennessee’s offensive line and their struggling offense.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants
I’ll be attending this game of fake 2-1 teams with bad offenses this Sunday. Rain is in the forecast, which is fitting for a contest that could realistically lead the slate in total rushes. If the Giants front four is at full strength for the first time this season, New York will have a considerable edge in the trenches in this matchup.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
This contest features two offenses with supremely talented, young skill groups headlined by volatile quarterback play. Zach Wilson returns for the Jets against a Steelers defense that has underwhelmed since losing T.J. Watt.
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons
The key to this game is the Falcons ability to stop the Browns' league-best rushing attack behind their high-caliber offensive line. Atlanta has exceeded expectations three weeks in a row now, and the line in this game is a little unexpected. At this juncture, I intend to stay away from this contest.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
If you are betting on the Cardinals, you are primarily betting on Kyler Murray to carry this otherwise mediocre team to victory, just like he did against the Raiders in Week 2. Baker Mayfield has been a liability as a Panther. But if he’s going to exceed expectations as a passer, there’s few better opportunities than the Cardinals cornerbacks. From an ATS slant, I will bet on Kyler Murray or I will pass here. This is also a content where weather could be a factor in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is currently a 9.5-point home favorite against Brian Hoyer’s Patriots. Green Bay will be chalk in survivor pools in an otherwise uncertain week in that format. I will take the Packers in survivor in at least one of my entries, as we’re getting Aaron Rodgers and a top-ten defense against Brian Hoyer.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Despite being 0-3, the Raiders are currently 2.5-point home favorites against Denver’s struggling offense. Both teams edge duo will have an advantage in the trenches. This is a desperation game for the Raiders, who have lost three one-score games against 2021 playoff games to start this season.
Sunday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This contest opened up with the Buccaneers as 3-point home underdogs. Right now, this game is either a pick’em or adjacent to one. Despite the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, the plan is for this game to be played in Tampa. I’ll be taking the Chiefs or passing here.
Monday Night Football: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers offensive performance last week was difficult to watch. With stud left tackle Trent Williams set to miss multiple weeks, I’m recalibrating my original stance on the 49ers in the short-term. Creativity and defense are their paths to beat the defending champs, who have kind of underwhelmed themselves through the first three weeks.
