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Week 18 Underdog High/Low Picks: Careful Banking on Etienne vs. Titans

week 18 underdog high/low picks

Josh Larky & Ben Wolby outline ten Week 18 Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

 

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Cam Akers HIGHER than 11.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Since Baker joined the Rams, Akers is 2-2 on this number. He had ten receiving yards last week, but Baker over-threw him on a wheel route which would have went for a 30-yard TD.
  • Among starting QBs, Baker ranks eighth in RB target share.
    • The Seahawks allow the most yards per reception and third-most receiving yards to opposing RBs, per The Edge.
    • This is a showcase game for Baker Mayfield to prove he should be a starter in 2023.
  • Akers leads the RB room in routes run by a wide margin, with Rams’ RB receiving stats from the past three games shown below.
Player Routes Run Targets Receptions Receiving Yards Receiving Yards per Game
Cam Akers 48 7 6 74 24.67
Malcolm Brown 12 2 1 2 0.67
Kyren Williams 4 1 1 3 1

Gabe Davis LOWER than 50.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Davis has been LOWER than this number in eight of 14 games this year.
  • Only ten teams have allowed fewer passing plays of 30 or more yards than New England.
  • The Patriots have allowed the fewest pass plays of 40 or more yards this season.
  • Gabe Davis generally has spike weeks from big gains, and will struggle to reach this number in a high-volume capacity.

Chigoziem Okonkwo HIGHER than 2.0 Receptions – Ben Wolby

  • Okonkwo had three receptions on four targets in Week 17 with Joshua Dobbs as a passer.
    • Despite only running eight routes (my belief is due to rest), Oknowko saw a target on 50% of his routes, including a designed play.
  • 29% of Dobbs’ passes were to a tight end. The league average is 20%.
  • Okonkwo has had more than two receptions in five of his past six games.

Travis Etienne LOWER than 68.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • The Titans allows just 3.4 YPC to RBs, via The Edge.
  • Tennessee has the No. 2 run defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
  • Only the 49ers have allowed fewer runs of 20 or more yards this year than Tennessee (five).
  • Saquon Barkley is the only RB this season to surpass 68.5 rushing yards against the Titans.
  • Etienne had 17 carries for 32 yards rushing when they faced the Titans in Week 14.

Dalvin Cook LOWER than 91.5 Total Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Cook has had more than 91 total yards in just six of 16 games.
  • Although the Vikings could move to the No. 2 seed with a win and a 49ers’ loss to the Cardinals, it’s looking likely that they’ll be locked in as the No. 3 seed.
    • There’s no reason to give Dalvin Cook a ton of touches with the playoffs on the horizon. Cook had 11 touches in Week 17, the fewest he’s had all season. 
  • Against the Bears and their starting QB Nathan Peterman, I could see the Vikings going up early and resting their starters sometime in the second half.

Robert Tonyan LOWER than 24.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Tonyan was averaging 4.2 receptions and 35 receiving yards per game through Week 9.
  • Then in Week 10, Christian Watson was announced the starter at WR, and he caught four of eight targets for 107 yards and three TDs.
  • From Week 10 onward, Tonyan has more than 20 receiving yards in just one of seven games.
  • He’s averaging just 2.6 targets, 1.7 receptions, and 18 receiving yards since Week 10 (seven game sample).

Amon-Ra St. Brown HIGHER than 71.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • He’s been HIGHER in eight of 15 games.
  • The Packers run the sixth-highest rate of Cover 3, and Jared Goff is seventh in yards per attempt when targeting his slot WRs (per TruMedia).
    • St. Brown saw five of his nine targets against Cover 3 the last time these teams played, per The Edge.
  • Amon-Ra leads all Detroit WRs in snaps, receptions, and yards out of the slot.
Player Snaps Lined Up Out Wide RecYds Lined Up Out Wide Snaps From Slot RecYds From Slot Target Share
Amon-Ra St. Brown 313 537 407 558 25.80%
Kalif Raymond 303 260 188 290 10.90%
Josh Reynolds 389 353 182 110 10.80%
Tom Kennedy 110 46 101 95 2.80%
DJ Chark 381 449 98 39 9.10%
  • NOTE: The Lions may be eliminated if the Seahawks win earlier on Sunday, in which case, I am less tempted to play this. I think the Lions will try to win this game no matter what, but will have more motivation with a playoff spot on the line.

D.J. Chark HIGHER than 35.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Chark has at least 46 yards in six of ten games.
  • Chark only played 11 snaps due to injury in Week 11, so he’s really had 46 or more yards in six of nine healthy games this year.
  • Goff’s high/low is set at 249.5 passing yards on Underdog, more than seven times higher than Chark’s line, even though Chark is the team’s clear WR2.

Joe Mixon LOWER than 13.85 Fantasy Points – Ben Wolby

  • Mixon has more than 13.85 fantasy points in just six of 13 games this year, scoring a TD in four of them.
    • The Ravens have allowed the fifth-fewest TDs to the RB position.
  • Only three starting RBs against the Ravens have finished with more than 13.85 fantasy points: Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, and Saquon Barkley.
  • If you remove his 51-point game against Carolina, Mixon is averaging fewer than 12 fantasy points per game.

Deshaun Watson HIGHER than 20.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Watson has at least 21 rushing yards in all five games.
  • He has at least six carries in four of those five games.
  • The Steelers are the No. 4 run defense by DVOA, so the Browns’ path to winning is through passing.
  • More pass attempts should lead to more Watson scrambles.

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We hope you enjoyed reading through these Week 18 Underdog High/Low Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.

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