Betting
1/6/23
6 min read
Week 18 Underdog High/Low Picks: Bet on Lawrence Coming Up Big
We had another solid week last week as the picks went 4-2, which brings our total for the season to 96-81-2. In our final week of the regular season, we do not have a ton of lines to pick from as players are rested and teams have nothing to play for. I was able to find some picks I will be playing this week, and have included my confidence ratings and how far I would play the lines if they moved.
Najee Harris HIGHER than 85.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
I fully expected the rushing yards line for Najee Harris to be close to 80 this week, and having receiving yards added to it at 85.5 is a gift. Since Kenny Pickett took over the starting quarterback role, Harris has averaged 63.3 in the 10 games Pickett has played most of the snaps. In that same 10-game sample, he has averaged 78.7 rushing + receiving yards. I really like this line because it is not too much above his average and is against one of the worst rush defenses in the league. The Browns have given up the eighth-most rushing yards and yards per carry. They also give up the fifth-most rushing attempts of 10+ yards. Harris has seen his rush share decrease over the last few weeks with Jaylen Warren seeing more work, but he still is the top running back in this offense. I fully expect him to be able to get a few 10+ yard rushes and go over this line. He also has a 11.3% target share over the last five weeks, which means he should see a few targets and help him get over this line. Because of his split with Jaylen Warren, I am not fully confident in this line and rate it 3/5 for confidence, and would not play it any higher.
Tyler Higbee HIGHER than 29.5 Receiving Yards
I don’t think Seattle has received the attention it deserves as a matchup to target for tight ends. They have given up the most receiving yards and the second-most yards per reception to tight ends this season. This includes over 100 receiving yards to tight ends each of the last three weeks. Tyler Higbee continues to be one of Baker’s favorite targets and was second on the team with four targets last week. The pass volume might not be there for Higbee to go higher than this line this week, but I still like it enough to play it. I give it a confidence rating of 3/5 and would not play it any higher.
Cam Akers HIGHER than 72.5 Rushing Yards
I really could just copy and paste the write up from last week's successful pick, as the process is almost exactly the same here. Last week I liked Cam Akers when he was seeing 79% of running back carries, and then he actually increased his running back rush share to 86% this last week. The Seahawks present another fantastic matchup for running backs. They give up the third-most rushing yards in the league.
What I really like about this play is the possibility of a big play from Akers. The Seahawks give up the fifth-most rush attempts of 20+ yards and the fourth-most rush attempts of 25+ yards. Akers has had a rush of more than 20 yards each of the last two weeks. His control of the Rams' backfield and his big play ability has helped him go over 100 rushing yards each of the last two weeks, and I think there is a serious chance he makes it three straight weeks. Akers still plays in the injury-decimated Rams' offense, so it takes a knock for confidence because of that, but I still rate it 4/5 for confidence and would play it to 75.5 rushing yards.
Robert Woods HIGHER than 3.0 Receptions
Josh Dobbs looked decent last week against one of the best defenses in the league, and he gets rewarded with a much easier Jacksonville defense this weekend. Tennessee will get Derrick Henry back, though, so I expect Tennessee to use him early and often. The reason I like Robert Woods this week is based on his usage on third down last week. Woods saw seven targets last week on third down, which was a 54% target share. It was obvious Dobbs was looking for him in important situations, and I expect that to continue this week in a must-win game. Because it could be a very low pass volume offense with Henry back, I am not fully confident in this play, but still give it a 4/5 for confidence. I would not play it any higher.
Trevor Lawrence HIGHER than 259.5 Pass Yards
When I first saw this line, I couldn't believe it. I actually refreshed my Underdog app to make sure it was correct. First, this is a play-in game for the playoffs, so both teams are going to be doing their best and resting no players. Second, the Titans' secondary has been horrific this season. It's giving up a league-worst 295 passing yards per game. Finally, Trevor Lawrence has been very good this season, especially recently. He is averaging 244 passing yards per game, and that includes two poor performances against the elite Philadelphia and Denver secondaries. I think this line should at least be 275.5, especially when you consider that Lawrence put up 363 passing yards against Tennessee in Week 14. This is by far my most confident play of the week, and it is only the third pick this season to break my confidence rating scale and be rated 6/5 for confidence. I would play it up to 275.5.
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