Analysis
12/10/22
8 min read
Week 14 Main Slate Underdog Fantasy High/Low Picks
A weird Thursday night game had us go 1-1, and I still don’t understand the Raiders’ offensive game plan. That brings us to 76-70-2 for the season. Picks were a little harder to find with the smaller slate of games this Sunday with so many teams on bye, but we have an exciting new tool at the 33rd team that helped me find my highest confidence play of the week.
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Deshaun Watson LOWER than 228.5 Passing Yards
After not playing a game for two full seasons, Deshaun Watson looked extremely rusty in his first game back. He completed only 55% of his passes and had 131 passing yards. Part of this wasn’t just rust but that the Browns committed to the run. They had 38 total rushing attempts, compared to only 24 passing attempts. Watson’s 24 passing attempts were the second-lowest for a Browns quarterback this season. To help Watson work off the rust, I expect the Browns to continue their dedication to the ground game.
In their game against the Bengals earlier this season, the Browns had 44 rushing attempts compared to Jacoby Brissett's 22 pass attempts, the fewest passing attempts for the Browns in a single game this season. Brissett was able to go higher than 228.5 passing yards in that game, but Brissett has actually looked decent this season and hasn’t had to deal with getting used to the speed of the NFL. With the Browns’ offense likely being run-heavy and Watson continuing to get used to starting in the NFL, I am fairly confident in this pick. I am worried about Donovan Peoples-Jones and Amari Cooper connecting with Watson on deep passes. It only takes one or two successful deep throws to go higher than this line, so I am rating this as 3/5 on confidence and would not play it any lower.
Russell Wilson +59.5 HIGHER than Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Playing Russell Wilson on this Rivals entry means that you expect Patrick Mahomes to have no more than 59 passing yards more than Russell Wilson. While I would go with Mahomes in most matchups, the Broncos have been solid against the pass this season. Only the Tennessee Titans passed for more than 250 passing yards against them in regulation, and seven of twelve teams haven't even passed for over 200 yards in regulation. Mahomes is talented enough to find success against this defense, but I expect the Chiefs to lean on the run to beat the Broncos. Denver’s run defense has been exploitable this season, and they currently give up 120 rush yards per game. I expect Kansas City to continue feeding Pacheco plenty of carries, which will likely keep Mahomes’ passing yardage down.
The tricky part of this play is you are counting on Russell Wilson to play decently well after he does not have Courtland Sutton, one of his favorite targets, this week. Without Sutton, Greg Dulcich will likely be in for an increased role, and Kendall Hinton will continue to play a significant role in this offense. One factor that gives me confidence in Wilson this week is I am very bullish on the Broncos using their running backs in the passing game. The Chiefs give up the second-most passing yards to running backs per game, and the Broncos will finally get Mike Boone back from injury this week. The Broncos will not be able to establish the run like they have tried to recently, as the Chiefs give up the 6th fewest rush yards per game.
The Broncos will also likely be trailing most of the game and will have to play more aggressively and pass more. My favorite part of this pick is the 59.5-yard bonus Russell Wilson receives, and I can easily see this pick being correct, with Mahomes finishing around 240 passing yards and Wilson finishing with 190 passing yards. I still don’t have much confidence in this pick, but it is good enough for me to play, so I rate it 3/5 for confidence and would play it as long as Wilson has at least a 55-passing-yard advantage.
Amon-Ra St. Brown HIGHER than 84.5 Receiving Yards
This Lions and Vikings game has the second-highest point total of the week at 51.5, so we can expect a high-scoring and offense-friendly game. The Vikings secondary has statistically been the worst pass defense so far this season. They are giving up a league-high 299.6 passing yards per game. They have given up over 300 passing yards for four straight weeks, including 382 to Mac Jones and 369 to Mike White over the last two weeks. I think Jared Goff higher than 274.5 passing yards is a good pick, but I like Amon-Ra St. Brown higher than 84.5 receiving yards even more.
Recently, Goff’s connection with St. Brown has been great, which has led to St. Brown having over 100 receiving yards in three of the last four games. I expect that great connection to continue in this very competitive and offense-friendly game. I rate this pick as a 4/5 for confidence, with my only worries being a breakout for a finally healthy D’Andre Swift or that Goff might spread the ball around like he did during their first game against Minnesota this season. This line is already high, so I would not play it if it goes any higher.
Christian Kirk HIGHER than 69.5 Receiving Yards
Christian Kirk and the Jaguars play Tennessee and their porous pass defense this week. The Titans defense has been terrible recently, giving up the most passing yards per game over the last five weeks. Last week, the Eagles gave the league the perfect blueprint on how to dominate this Tennessee team. Philadelphia passed early and often and nearly completely abandoned the run game. For example, Jalen Hurts had a season-high 39 pass attempts last week. I am sure Doug Pederson noticed what his old team did against the Titans, and if the Jaguars come out passing, Lawrence’s top target should easily go higher than 69.5 receiving yards.
Christian Kirk is averaging 69.1 receiving yards per game and has had more than 69.5 receiving yards in 7/12 games so far this season. Considering the matchup, I have a lot of confidence in Kirk’s ability to go higher than this line. My only worry is the toe injury that Trevor Lawrence picked up. If he is limited at all, that will negatively affect this whole offense, so I give this play a confidence rating of 4/5 and would play it to 74.5 receiving yards.
Mike White HIGHER than 36.5 Pass Attempts
One of my biggest regrets last week was not making my Mike White pass attempts pick a 5/5 confidence play. White had 57 attempts and almost had more completions than his pass attempts line. He’s averaged 43.5 pass attempts over the past two seasons in starts, and this Bills defense might be great, but that shouldn’t limit Mike White’s attempts. The Bills defense faces an average of 35.4 pass attempts a game, which ranks 6th highest in the league. The only way I see Mike White going lower than 36.5 pass attempts is if the Jets jump out to a large lead, but I do not see that happening against one of the best teams in the NFL. I am not making the same mistake this week and am rating this 5/5 for confidence and would play it up to 38 pass attempts.
Daniel Bellinger HIGHER than 2.5 Receptions
Last week was Daniel Bellinger’s first game since Week 7 as he returned from injury. He was a welcome addition to an offense that is struggling with receiving talent and ran the third most routes on the team. He still isn't seeing elite usage, his target share was 17.9% last week, but he is guaranteed production with not many other options in this offense.
The Giants will likely have to pass a lot this week to keep up with the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles offense. Using our new Trenches Matchup Tool on the 33rd Team’s website, we can see that the Giants are projected for 39 passing snaps this week. If Bellinger is to see the same target share as last week, that would put him at 6 targets. 6 targets should be plenty to get more than 2.5 receptions, so it is my highest confidence play of the week. I rate it as 5/5 and would play it up to 3.5 receptions, but not any higher.
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WATCH: Ben Wolbransky's Week 14 Underdog Picks
