Week 12 Underdog High/Low Picks Include Big Projections for Antonio Gibson

underdog high/low picks

Josh Larky & Ben Wolby outline 12 Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take in Week 12. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

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Terry McLaurin HIGHER than 60.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • He’s had more yards in three of five games with Taylor Heinicke this season.
  • He’s averaging 85 receiving yards per game with Heinicke.
  • Fifteen WRs have at least 61 receiving yards against ATL this season, per The Edge.
  • The Falcons allow the fourth-most receiving yards per game to wideouts (188), per The Edge.

Aaron Jones LOWER than 25.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • The Eagles are allowing the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing RBs and averaging 25 total among ALL RBs, which is already below this number.
  • Only four RBs have gone HIGHER against PHI.
  • Even with seven targets last week, Jones still had only 20 receiving yards.
  • Jones has been HIGHER in just three of 11 games in 2022.
  • A.J. Dillon takes some receiving work, averaging 1.5 targets and ten receiving yards per game.

Dameon Pierce LOWER than 91.5 Total Yards – Josh Larky

Antonio Gibson HIGHER than 2.5 Receptions – Josh Larky

  • Gibson has been HIGHER than this number in seven of his past eight games.
  • Six RBs have at least three receptions against ATL this season.
  • While ATL has the second-lowest pressure rate against QBs this season, per The Edge, the Commanders’ weak offensive line should ensure Taylor Heinicke still needs to dump the ball off when under pressure.

Antonio Gibson HIGHER than 13.5 Rush Attempts – Ben Wolby

  • The Falcons are averaging 23 rush attempts per game to opposing RBs.
    • Gibson has hit this number OR had HIGHER than 50% of WAS RB carries in two straight games.
  • Gibson earned back the starting job and saw the most snaps and carries on the team the past two weeks, going HIGHER than this number both times.
  • Gibson averages 13 attempts per game since McKissic went on IR and saw 18 attempts last week, more than Brian Robinson Jr.’s ten.

Derrick Henry LOWER than 105.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • No RB has more than 101 rushing yards against CIN this season.
  • Henry himself has been LOWER than this number in six of ten games this season.
  • With CIN favored in this matchup, TEN will be forced to pass more than usual to keep the game competitive.

Russell Wilson HIGHER than 30.5 Pass Attempts – Ben Wolby

  • Wilson is averaging 33.5 attempts per game against a defense allowing 34 attempts per game.
  • Russ has gone HIGHER than this line in six of nine games, and opposing QBs vs. CAR have HIGHER than 30.5 in seven of ten games in 2022.

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Russell Wilson HIGHER than 219.5 Passing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Wilson has at least 237 passing yards in five of his past six games.
  • DEN waived RB Melvin Gordon the same week Chase Edmonds suffered a high ankle sprain.

Patrick Mahomes HIGHER than 287.5 Passing Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Mahomes has been HIGHER than this number in six straight games, with at least 300 yards in five straight.
  • Since 2020, Mahomes is averaging nearly 310 yards per game in primetime.
  • The KC offense is firing on all cylinders; Pacheco had a 100+ yard rushing game last week and Mahomes still had HIGHER than 287.5 passing yards.
  • Rams are ranked seventh-worst in pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders.

Donovan Peoples-Jones HIGHER than 41.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • He has at least 50 receiving yards in seven straight games.
  • DPJ has at least four receptions in seven straight games too, so he has not needed lucky big plays to reach this number.

Sam Darnold Higher than 182.5 Passing Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Darnold was HIGHER than this in all but three 2021 games.
  • He averaged 221 passing yards in 2021, and averages 225 passing yards per game in his career.
  • Only Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson had fewer than this many passing yards against Denver.
  • QBs against Denver are averaging 207 passing yards per game, via The Edge.

Davante Adams HIGHER than 88.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • He’s been HIGHER than this number in seven of ten games this season.
  • The past three games without Darren Waller/Hunter Renfrow (both on IR), Adams has AT LEAST 13 targets and 126 receiving yards.

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We hope you enjoyed reading through these 12 Underdog High/Low Picks for Week 12. As always, deposit your money responsibly.

WATCH MORE: Betting Picks for Week 12

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