Wednesday Watchman: Betting, DFS Stats to Know for Super Bowl LVII
Betting 2/9/23
The time has come. The two best teams in football meet to decide on a champion.
Will Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni finally get his playoff 2-point conversion? Will there be a “Philly Special?” Will Kansas City Chiefs receiver Kadarius Toney play, and if so, in which quarter will he be injured? Heads or tails? Will a lineman score a touchdown? I can’t tell you the answers to any of those. But what I can do is tell you Super Bowl LVII will be decided in the trenches.
Focus Statistic
The Chiefs' offense allows the second-best sack rate at only 3.8%, while the Eagles' defense ranked first in sack rate at 11.2%. It could be the “unstoppable force meets an immovable object.” Or this could be an inflated number for Philadelphia’s defense given its generally lower quality of opponent. In 26.3% of their matchups, the Eagles faced opponent offenses ranked in the top 10 for sack rate allowed.
Conversely, the Eagles' offense is ranked 21st in sack rate allowed at 7.3%, while the Chiefs’ defense generates the fifth-best sack rate of 8.2%. In 42.1% of their matchups, the Chiefs’ defense faced a top-10 offense in sacks-allowed (great success even with a tougher defensive line schedule than the Eagles).
As good as the Eagles’ lines have been, the Chiefs are underrated in the trenches.
Betting
The trenches are the emphasis because both quarterbacks appear to be partially hampered by injury. Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, which will still be sore even with the two weeks of rest.
With a possible shoulder injury, Jalen Hurts has not cracked 160 yards passing in these playoffs. But he hasn’t really needed to do so in two blowout wins over the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers.
It would be interesting if we have a game where Mahomes can’t run and Hurts can’t pass, but I think they will be healed up enough to be the alpha competitors they are. Both coaches are creative and will pull out all the stops.
Do we bet against Howie Roseman’s Philadelphia “team of destiny,” or do we bet against the future GOAT Mahomes? Tough decisions.
The current line is Eagles -1.5 with a total of 50.5. My money will be on the Chiefs and the under.
DFS
With only a showdown slate available, you want to be unique in GPP tournaments. Captain an unlikely hero; that alone will differentiate you from the field. Most people will be using one of Mahomes, Hurts, A.J. Brown, or Travis Kelce. Fine options for the roster spot with a multiplier include DeVonta Smith, Miles Sanders and Isiah Pacheco.
Sanders faces a Kansas City defense ranked 22nd in yards per rush and is the lead back on a run-heavy offense. That is why he is my top “best of the rest” candidate if the aforementioned foursome fails to flourish.
Bonus Bet
If you envision an Eagles victory, you could also throw some money on Sanders as MVP. One thing I will do on occasion is take the obvious player from the team I think will win, then throw a dart on a lower-probability player from the other team.
So this year, I might take Mahomes as MVP at +130 for one unit and put an equal amount of money on Sanders at +3000. Shop around for the best odds. If Mahomes wins the award (a likely scenario), then I am up 0.3 units. If Sanders wins, then I am up 29 units. If neither of them wins, then I am down 2 units, which is not devastating. Other, more precise bets can cover the loss.
Caveat: the last time a running back was Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis in 1998. There's no time like the present.
(Data courtesy of SIS and TruMedia Networks)