Analysis
3/21/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Betting: Way Too Early Season Totals Picks
If you’re like me and miss the NFL, you’re in luck because Prizepicks has some contests you can enter now for the 2023 NFL season. They have posted passing, rushing and receiving yards season total lines for many of the biggest names. In part one of this series, I will be looking for players I expect to get more yards than their line.
With more plays, you are looking to maximize stability. For these picks to hit, the player will need to play most — if not all — 17 games while also maintaining their role in the offense through free agency and the draft. Because of this, it is important to avoid risk-averse players and focus on players that have solidified roles that will not be negatively affected by any additions to the team. Here are some of my favorite higher plays for the 2023 season.
Full Season Bets to Take
Garrett Wilson MORE than 1,125.5 receiving yards
Based on Garrett Wilson’s rookie season, he is set up to be one of the best wide receivers for the foreseeable future. In the past 10 seasons, he ranks 12th for most receiving yards per game, right between JuJu Smith-Schuster and Jaylen Waddle. Everyone ahead of Wilson, except Odell Beckham Jr. and Keenan Allen, had more receiving yards per game in their second year than they did in their first year.
Allen struggled with injuries in his second season, and OBJ had an insane rookie season, so it was hard for him to improve statistically. Wilson finished with 1,103 receiving yards last season, so he would only need a slight improvement to go higher. Based on his comparables, we should expect Wilson to continue improving and increasing his yardage total this season.
The one massive variable that doesn’t seem to be included is his quarterback play. Few top wide receivers had to deal with more quarterback instability than Wilson did last season. Even with a rotation of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White, the rookie still put up elite numbers. If Aaron Rodgers ends up on the Jets, which looks likely at this point, Wilson will see a huge upgrade at quarterback. We will likely see a lot of movement on this line when Rodger's move is confirmed, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it move to 1,200.5 receiving yards or higher.
Barring an injury, I don’t see any reason why Wilson would go lower than this line. He is one of the most talented young receivers in the league and has proven he can produce despite bad quarterback play. I would continue to play this line with confidence up to 1,175.5 receiving yards and would play it to 1,200.5 if Rodgers is confirmed as his quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence MORE than 4,075.5 passing yards
It is easy to forget the new weapon Trevor Lawrence will have next season. Calvin Ridley has been reinstated by the NFL and should slot in as Lawrence’s new top wide receiver. He will have to compete with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, who both just had the best statistical seasons of their career.
Add in Evan Engram at tight end and Travis Etienne at running back, and Lawrence is surrounded by arguably one of the best skill groups in the league. Even just Ridley and Kirk can be considered a top-five wide receiver duo.
Top-5 WR Duos in the NFL
1. Tyreek Hill - Jaylen Waddle
2. AJ Brown - DeVonta Smith
3. Ja'Marr Chase - Tee Higgins
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown - Jameson Williams
5. Calvin Ridley - Christian Kirk— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) March 17, 2023
The one hesitation I have with this play is the Jaguars' schedule. Since they won their division, Jacksonville will be playing other division champions including the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills and 49ers. Lawrence still has an easy divisional schedule, playing the Texans, Colts and Titans in the AFC South, which should help even the difficulty of the rest of the schedule.
With the addition of Ridley to this offense, his second season with Doug Pederson and his continued growth, Lawrence has a lot of upside. He has enough to make him a dark horse to finish with the most passing yards in the league. I am comfortable playing this up to 4,150.5 if it moves.
Ja’Marr Chase MORE than 1,225.5 receiving yards
I don’t understand this line. Ja'Marr Chase finished with 1,046 receiving yards last season, but he also missed five games. He wasn’t having a down year, despite the injury, averaging 87.2 receiving yards per game through 12 games. Chase averaged 85.6 receiving yards per game in his first year in the league and finished with 1,455 receiving yards. He was on pace to get more yards in his second season and might have exceeded 1,500 receiving yards if he didn’t get injured.
This line implies he will either negatively regress or miss a significant amount of the season due to injury. I don’t see a reason Chase would regress. Joe Burrow will still be his quarterback, and there might be a shuffle with the other receivers, as there are trade rumors surrounding both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but I do not see the loss of Higgins or Boyd negatively affecting Chase’s yardage total.
There also isn’t a receiver the Bengals could add that would negatively impact Chase’s usage in the offense. His role is safe, and there are not any major coaching or personnel changes that would imply he would do worse this season.
Assuming he plays all 17 games, Chase would have to average less than 72 receiving yards per game to go lower than this line. He can miss two games and still go over this line if he continues at his career receiving yards per game pace. I don’t see a drop-off of more than 10 receiving yards per game happening, and Chase has not shown anything that would indicate he is injury prone.
Even if you project slight negative regression to 80 receiving yards over a full season, that puts him at 1,360 receiving yards. I would confidently play this line up to 1,350.5 receiving yards.
