Betting

4/5/23

5 min read

Four Unique 2023 NFL Draft Bets to Consider Taking

NFL Draft Bets

Below, you'll find five 2023 NFL Draft bets I've recently taken myself, along with one player to currently avoid betting on, given market odds. For all bets, I provide the implied percentage odds for added context. If a bet has a 25 percent implied probability, then I expect that bet to hit more often than 25 percent of the time.

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Total RBs Taken in Round 1 OVER 1.5

Odds: +320 (23.8%) on DraftKings

  • Bijan Robinson (scouting report) is a near lock for Round 1 draft capital.
  • We need Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report) to get taken in Round 1 for this to hit, and I believe his chances are higher than 23.8 percent.
  • According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, Gibbs frequently is going in Round 1, with several major media outlets placing him on the Saints, Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs near the end of the first round.
  • Gibbs is ranked No. 21 overall on The 33rd Team's Big Board (however, our latest mock draft doesn't have him going until Pick 51 to Miami in Round 2).
  • This bet can be found in the DraftKings mobile app: NFL --> 2023 Draft --> Position Totals Section

Total WRs Taken in Round 1 OVER 4.5

Odds: +235 (29.9%) on DraftKings

  • Currently, four wide receivers are almost certainly Round 1 selections:
  • We need one of these three WRs to join them in Round 1 for this bet to hit:
    • Jalin Hyatt (scouting report), a speedster frequently mocked to the Chargers at Pick 21
    • Rashee Rice (scouting report), an outside receiver frequently mocked to the Chiefs or Bills at the end of Round 1
    • Josh Downs (scouting report), a speedy and elusive slot receiver who is occasionally linked to the Chiefs, Seahawks, Bills, and Giants.
  • With three potential outs for this bet to hit at longshot odds, this is one of my favorite positions of the offseason.
  • This bet can be found in the DraftKings mobile app: NFL --> 2023 Draft --> Position Totals Section

Bears Draft Offensive Lineman First

Odds: -175 (63.6%) on FanDuel

  • I don't normally like taking favorites in NFL Draft markets, but Ryan Reynolds and I both think there's closer to a 75 percent chance that the Bears' first pick is an offensive lineman.
  • Now that Justin Fields has DJ Moore to throw to, it would simply be malpractice not to get him an elite offensive line prospect as he enters his third NFL season.
  • This can be found in the Football --> NFL Draft section, titled "2023 NFL Draft - Position of Chicago Bears First Player Drafted"

Third QB Selected: Stroud or Young

Odds: Both are listed +850 (10.5%) on DraftKings

  • With 10.5 percent implied odds for each of them, that's a roughly 20 percent chance that Anthony Richardson (scouting report) or Will Levis (scouting report) leap frogs one of them.
  • Re-framing this as a 20 percent chance that Richardson or Levis goes first or second overall, I think it's more likely Richardson passes C.J. Stroud (scouting report) or Bryce Young (scouting report), as his dynamic skillset is unmatched by any other QB prospect in this class.
  • Stroud and Young are first-round talents, but neither is a perfect prospect like Trevor Lawrence, so it's reasonable to assume one of them falls more often than 20 percent of the time.
  • This can be found in the 2023 Draft --> QB Props section of the DraftKings mobile app.

Worrisome Player Market

  • Richardson is currently difficult to bet on as a singular player on DraftKings.
  • In late February, two weeks before Richardson blew up at the scouting combine, the quarterback was at +3000 (3.2%) on DraftKings to go first overall (a bet I tailed), but now that line has moved to +1000 (9.1%).

  • While Richardson is +1000 (9.1%) to go first overall, if you go to the "Team To Draft Player" section, his odds are better, at +1300 (7.1%) to get drafted by Carolina — which holds the No. 1 pick.
    • While I'm not betting Richardson at +1000 to go first overall, if you want to make that bet, simply take +1300 for him to get drafted by Carolina instead.
  • Richardson is -160 (61.5%) to go third overall on DraftKings, and -125 (55.6%) to go fourth overall.
    • There is too much of a hold here — the sportsbook is going to make a lot of money off this market, and I don't want to play right into their hands when they have two landing spots (he also has realistic odds to go first or second overall) with a combined 117.1% chance.

If you’re interested in betting the NFL Draft or just want to talk prospects or fantasy football, join our FREE Discord with this link.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these NFL Draft bets. As always, bet responsibly.


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