To Fade or Not to Fade: Week 10 NFL Betting Narratives

Every week I'll dissect various narratives that affect NFL betting lines. This is vital, considering that most bettors digest these same narratives weekly. The betting public just keeps growing. While that's exciting, it also means sportsbooks can lure and fool some people into taking a lousy wager based on repeated narratives purported by the media. My job is to ensure these narratives do not trick you.

Let's get into some Week 10 betting narratives.

This is a really tough year for Wong Teasers.

FADE

For those unaware, Wong Teasers are one of the most popular and profitable bets you can utilize as an NFL bettor. By definition, it's a two-game teaser where the bettor "teases" up the spread through the two key numbers of three and seven. That means you're either teasing down 7.5 and 8.5-point favorites or teasing up 1.5 and 2.5-point underdogs. Here's an example of a Wong Teaser we like this week and that you may want to consider:

Tease the Seattle Seahawks from +2.5 to +8.5
Tease the Pittsburgh Steelers from +2.5 to +8.5
This creates a 2-team teaser with a "juice" of -120, meaning you'd have to bet $120 for every $100 you want to earn. If your sportsbook charges more than -120, don't do it! Over the long term, the data suggests you will not be profitable.

A thorough explanation of Wong Teasers can be found in Stanford Wong's now-famous 2009 book, Sharp Sports Betting. Professional handicappers consider it a must-read. For the sake of this section, I'll summarize the entire book in a few short sentences so you can easily understand the logic behind it:

Since the extra point rule change, NFL Games ended by a margin of victory of 3 or 7 on over 24% of games between 2015 and 2020. We expect that to continue at a rate of 21-23% in corresponding seasons.
Teasing through key numbers of 3 and 7 increases your odds of winning your teaser bet from 50% to 72% or more, according to long-term data.
That means that, unlike most wagers, you should expect Wong Teasers to be profitable in the long term.

Now let's look at how Wong Teaser-legs have done this season. Through nine weeks, Wong Teaser legs are 28-15 overall, with five of the nine NFL weeks offering more winners than losers. Let's take a deeper dive:

In Week 1, Wong Teaser legs went 2-5. The Green Bay Packers (+1.5) were the most egregious failure, losing by 16 points in their opener to the Minnesota Vikings.
In Week 2, Wong Teaser legs went 0-2. The Vikings (+2), fresh off their big win against Green Bay, lost by 17 to the Philadelphia Eagles.
In Week 3, Wong Teaser legs went 5-1, easily the most profitable week yet.
In Week 4, Wong Teaser legs went 1-2. The most astounding culprit? The Denver Broncos (+2.5) lost by nine points to the 0-3 Las Vegas Raiders.
In Week 5, Wong Teaser legs went 3-0. The Commanders (+1.5), Browns (+1.5), and Vikings (-8.5) all qualified as winners.
In Week 6, Wong Teaser legs went 5-1. The only loss belonged to the Packers (-7.5), who lost straight up to the New York Jets at home.
In Week 7, Wong Teaser legs went 3-3. The San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) were in a great correction spot taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. They lost by 21 points.
In Week 8, Wong Teaser legs thrived and went 6-0. The Broncos, Saints, Ravens, 49es, and Commanders were all underdogs that won straight up. The Houston Texans (+2) kept it close enough, losing by seven points to the Tennessee Titans.
Last week, Wong Teaser legs went 3-1. The Saints (+2.5) failed to cover against the Ravens, but the Seahawks (+1.5 to +2.5), Falcons (+2.5), and Jaguars (+2.5) were all Wong-winners.

In short, the narrative that Wong Teasers are failing bettors isn't very accurate. If bettors wait for the market to adjust and they find +1.5 to +2.5-point underdogs or -7.5 to -8.5-point favorites every week, you still have plenty of reason to believe in Stanford Wong's approach. As the season goes on, I expect more Wong Teasers to be profitable. We've already seen that in Weeks 8 and 9.

Statisticians, modelers, and the public are thriving this year in NFL betting. Situational and spot bettors–not so much.

DO NOT FADE

This is a true statement. The biggest reason why modelers and the public are winning this season is that the NFL is actually more predictable than usual. Teams that are historically poor performers against the spread (ATS) are the best in the NFL this year. The Giants, Falcons, Seahawks, Jets, and Chargers are all hitting over 60% ATS this season. On the other hand, typically high-performing teams ATS are performing well-below expectations. This season, the Chiefs, the Packers, the Colts, the Rams, and the Bucs are all under 40% ATS. And so far, it hasn't changed. What these teams are showing you is who they are every week.

In short, the data continues to be right. Or in other words, we're not seeing many instances of positive or negative regression. Playoff teams of yesteryear are underwhelming every week; bottom-feeder teams of yesterday are overwhelming every week.

It's also a big reason why yours truly is having an atypical, down year through nine weeks. I'm not a modeler and don't believe in modeling for long-term success. Especially in professional sports, a model cannot quantify the nature of human and group behavior. I'd go to war on this premise, but this is a year where modeler-types are getting rather full of hubris.

Usually, my philosophy of examining the intangibles and playing on exceptional spots is a winning strategy. It certainly was when I placed 5th in the Circa Contest last season. Volatility in NFL betting is always a thing, but historically we can depend on a few factors that just aren't manifesting this season.

At the top of that list of factors are situational advantages. I've lost count of how many times I've seen capable teams, overdue to regress positively, in phenomenal situational advantages, and they still failed to cover. Here are some of the most egregious cases this NFL season:

The Pittsburgh Steelers were 1-2 headed back home in Week 4 after a bad loss to the Browns; they lost and didn't cover against the Jets.
The Rams were 2-2 and back in Los Angeles after another embarrassing loss to the 49ers in Week 4. The Cowboys beat them, with Cooper Rush at quarterback, by a double-digit margin.
The Chiefs were 7-point favorites at home in Week 5 against a 1-3 Las Vegas team that historically they beat up upon. They won by only one point at Arrowhead.
The Packers are an obvious addition to this list, but we'll use their outing against the Jets as our prime example. Green Bay was 7.5-point favorites in Week 6 after losing to the Giants. The Jets beat them 27-10 at Lambeau Field.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 13-point favorites on the road against the Carolina Panthers in a nice correction spot after their upset loss to the Steelers in Week 6. Maybe in the most shocking result all season, Tampa lost 21-3 against a 1-5 Carolina squad.
The Arizona Cardinals were 4-point underdogs in Week 8 at Minnesota after a nice showing on Thursday Night Football 10 days prior. A muffed punt, interception, and failure to convert on downs in the fourth quarter led to three missed opportunities to cover. The Vikings won by eight points.
Last week, the Packers (-3.5) only scored 9 points and lost to the Lions in their most desperate spot of the season, and the Chiefs (-14) couldn't win by margin against a Titans team that they outgained by 270 yards.

The "sharps," the best sports bettors in the world, will continue to bet on ugly teams.

DO NOT FADE

Oh yes, it's true, and I'm in the same boat. Even though we haven't seen regression in spots where we expect, these things tend to adjust over time.

Listen to any professional bettor who has been doing this thing for a long time, and they'll probably tell you they're interested in the following plays this weekend. It's scary, I understand, but eventually, the pendulum swings back to the mean. I've included my "gross meter" along with these plays because, well, I get it.

The Bucs (-2.5) in Germany against the Seahawks– gross meter: 6/10
The Broncos (+2.5) on the road against the Titans– gross meter: 8/10
The Raiders (-6) at home against the Colts– gross meter: 10/10
The Chargers (+7) on the road against the 49ers– gross meter: 7/10
The Packers (+5) at home against the Cowboys– gross meter: 9/10

You don't have to like it, and you certainly don't have to bet on it, but the public will probably be on the opposite side of all of those wagers. Over the long term, the sharps (and the books) win.