Wow; it was a bad week last week. Several game scripts went completely opposite of what I predicted, and that doomed some of our Steelers picks and our Jeff Wilson pick. Marquise Brown went 0.5 over, which saved an overall abysmal Sunday. Our picks finished 3-5, which brings our seasonal record to 37-34-2. We’ve been really good on Thursday nights, so let’s bounce back with this Week 7 Saints vs. Cardinals matchup.
Kyler Murray OVER 32.5 Rushing Yards
It is hard to predict how the Arizona Cardinals’ offense will look with DeAndre Hopkins back and the loss of Hollywood Brown. Because of that, I am staying away from a lot of the props for the Cardinals that have to do with the receiving game. I noticed that in Week 1, the Saints gave up 72 yards rushing to Marcus Mariota, the only rushing quarterback that the Saints have faced this year. The Saints give up the fifth-most scramble yards per game this season, and so this is one of the few plays for the Cardinals that I have any confidence in. I give it a confidence rating of 4/5 and would play it up to 39.5 yards rushing.
Alvin Kamara OVER 15.0 Rush Attempts
It looks like Andy Dalton will be starting for the Saints again this week over Jameis Winston. Since Dalton got the starting job in Week 4, the Saints have been fairly run-heavy, averaging 1.22 rush attempts per pass attempt. With Winston as the starter in Weeks 1, 2 and 3, the Saints averaged nearly two pass attempts for every rush attempt. 15 attempts actually seems low for Kamara; I give it a confidence score of 4/5 because of a possible negative game script, and I would confidently play this up to 17.
Juwan Johnson OVER 2.0 Receptions
Always, always, always target tight ends against the Cardinals. They have given up the most receptions and the second-most yards to tight ends this year. Juwan Johnson has been running a ton of routes for the Saints, and with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry still out, Johnson should get plenty of targets on Thursday night. I also really like that this prop is at an even 2.0, so there is push potential if he finishes with exactly 2 receptions. This is a 6/5 confidence, and I will be playing this heavily, along with the over on his yards receiving prop, which is currently at 22.5 yards receiving. I will be playing this prop heavily up to 3.0 receptions.