Analysis
11/30/22
5 min read
The Wednesday Watchman: NFL Week 13 Betting, DFS and Fantasy Information to Know
The season of thanks has ended, but the season of taking down tournaments and making smart bets is in full swing. Last week was a mixed bag on the betting front, though we hit on many great DFS plays. Josh Jacobs, Foster Moreau, Miles Sanders, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Jones, Tyler Lockett, Tua Tagovailoa, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Stefon Diggs and even Mac Jones. Unfortunately, cover player Mark Andrews dropped one touchdown and had another stolen by a no-name tight end. Such is life.
Betting Stats to Know
This week, I want to use team EPA to find shootout candidates. By subtracting a team's defensive EPA from its offensive EPA, we can filter for teams with a good offense and a poor defense. Three matchups feature both teams with a positive EPA differential:
- Chiefs-Bengals
- Jaguars-Lions
- Chargers-Raiders
Unfortunately, my high expectations for these games are shared by the sportsbooks. These three are the only games this week with totals above 50 points.
First, the Chiefs are away at the Bengals (+2). Both offenses have been humming, but Patrick Mahomes and company have not blown out an opponent since October. The pathetic Rams were hanging in there last week. If the number got to +3 for the Bengals, it would be an auto-bet for me. Yet, I am still persuaded to take the over at 52. The Mahomes-led Chiefs hit the over 65.8% of the time in away games by an average of six points.
Next, Jacksonville at Detroit (+1.5) will be an offensive showing for both sides. The Lions nearly upset the Bills on Thanksgiving and will be ready to go against a Jaguars squad coming off an upset against the Ravens. My money is on the resurgent Lions and the over 51.5.
Finally, the Chargers play the Raiders (+2) in a divisional matchup. Normally, I like divisional unders, but the EPA differential says to bet the over. Therefore, due to the dissonance, I will avoid betting the total entirely. However, getting the Chargers ATS giving less than a field goal is enticing. I would play them down to -2.5. The number three is significant, especially for divisional games, so the Raiders catching anything greater than three points would make me want to bet on them instead.
You could do a teaser of the Bengals and Raiders and sit comfortably to watch the games. I will be trying that out (tease both the Bengals and Raiders to +8). If you feel extra spicy, throw the Lions into the teaser (tease up to +7.5). Good luck!
DFS Stats to Know
I'm licking my chops because all of these teams play on the main slate this week. Most of the players in each of my DFS lineups will be from these six teams. And strangely, all of these focus teams are bad against one particular offensive position type (that’s foreshadowing).
Kansas City visits Cincinnati in what will be a popular game for stacking. Eat the chalk. Mahomes, Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster should all ball out. Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins (and Ja'Marr Chase, if healthy) should fare similarly. Mix and match to your liking. Bengals slot receiver Tyler Boyd could be a sparsely owned buy-low player after putting up a dud against the Titans. The Chiefs' defense is a paltry 30th against slot WR. Conversely, Smith-Schuster plays a significant portion of his snaps in the slot and faces the Bengals' 28th-ranked slot WR defense. The Bengals are actually outstanding at defending the TE position (eighth), but Kelce is no regular TE.
With Detroit and Jacksonville, we have another pair of teams whose defenses are terrible against slot WRs. That means we can trust St. Brown in this prime spot. Column favorite Christian Kirk is also in line to dominate. The Lions' defense is 32nd in points per game allowed, 32nd in yards per game, 32nd in yards per play, 32nd in third down conversion percentage, 30th in net yards per pass attempt and 29th in pass yards per game. So load up on Jaguars? Yes. Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne and Zay Jones are all viable in addition to Kirk. Super-stack them.
This must be the week for slot receivers because we have yet another game featuring a poor slot WR defense (Raiders rank 32nd). You might say the Chargers’ Keenan Allen will be a slot machine in Las Vegas. The Raiders could keep Moreau going at TE against the Chargers' defense, which ranks 28th at defending them. Of course, WR Davante Adams should see a massive target share that can overcome middling matchups. Expect plenty more Jacobs here; he isn’t done yet. Los Angeles' defense is only 27th defending the run.
Waiver Wire Information
Check out what my colleagues are saying about waiver pick-ups! Plus, Odell Beckham Jr. will be making a decision soon.
Check in again next time for The Wednesday Watchman: Week 14!
(Data courtesy of SIS and TruMedia Networks)
