It’s Super Bowl week, and that means the lines on underdog are tighter than ever. With so many eyes on the game, there has been a lot of movement on these lines, and a lot of value wiped away. I was able to find five entries I really like, including two Rivals entries, and have rated them out of 5 for confidence and where I would play them to if they were bumped.
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Patrick Mahomes HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions
Expecting Patrick Mahomes to make a mistake is usually a losing proposition, but this Philadelphia Eagles defense will likely be the most difficult matchup Mahomes has had all season. The Eagles pressured quarterbacks on 38.2% of snaps this season, which ranks second only behind the Dallas Cowboys. This is significant, as Mahomes’ interception percentage this season was more than three times higher when he was pressured than when he was not. The Eagles have the fifth most interceptions this season and although I never like to put a lot of confidence into turnover plays, I rate it 3/5 for confidence, I still like this line enough to play it. I would not play it if it bumps to 1.0.
Isiah Pacheco HIGHER than 15.5 Receiving yards
This is my bold pick of the week. I do not see Isaiah Pacheco having as large of a role in the passing game as he had against the Bengals, but I also do not think his role in the passing game will disappear. I see a lot of people jumping on the lower play here because Clyde Edwards-Helaire is healthy and will be active for the Super Bowl, but I am not buying that Edwards-Helaire will have any significant role this Sunday.
The one reason I really like this play is Pacheco and how his effectiveness in designed running back screen plays. He has 6 receptions on screen plays this season and averages 15.5 receiving yards per reception on those plays. If Pacheco is able to get a screen play schemed for him — he’s had one in four of the last seven games — I like his chances to go over this line. Even if he doesn’t get a reception on a screen play, Pacheco is likely to see 2-3 targets, and I still like his chances to go over. I rate this pick as 4/5 for confidence and would play it up to 17.5 receiving yards.
Kenneth Gainwell MORE Receptions than Quez Watkins
Deep in the list of all the Rival Pick’em contests on Underdog, I was able to find this gem. This is a straight up Rivals contest with neither player having an adjustment, which is great because it gives us the chance to push if they tie.
Quez Watkins has seen his role in the Eagles’ offense disappear since Dallas Goedert returned from injury. He ran only 7 and 14 routes the last two games, which were the two fewest routes run in a single game he has had this season. As Watkins has seen his role diminish, Gainwell’s role has grown. The wild part of Kenneth Gainwell’s usage in the receiving game this season is most of it has been in the first half. This has been due to the Eagles dominating most games in the first half and protecting the lead in the second half. He is averaging a reception every first half, and so in a highly competitive game where he will likely see usage the entire game, I really like Gainwell to have a big receiving game. I rate this play 4/5 for confidence and would not play it if it moves at all.
Kadarius Toney HIGHER than 27.5 Receiving Yards
Kadarius Toney has struggled to stay healthy his entire NFL career. He has continued to be limited in practice leading up to the Super Bowl, but finally shed that limited tag on Thursday. When Toney has played for the Kansas City Chiefs this season, he has seen plenty of usage. Since Week 16, when he really began being integrated in the Chiefs offense, Toney has seen a target on 37.8% of routes. That leads the team in targets per route run in that timeframe. Even if Toney is still limited and only able to run just a few routes, he should still see between 2-4 targets. Toney is averaging 10.8 yards per receptions with the Chiefs this season so even just 3 receptions should see him go higher, and I think that’s his floor.
Toney’s massive target share per route run tells us that he is having touches schemed for him, and it’s no surprise considering he is the most explosive receiver the Chiefs have. As long as he runs at least 8-10 routes, I feel confident in this play. I rate it 5/5 for confidence and would play it until 34.5 receiving yards.
Dallas Goedert MORE Receptions than Miles Sanders +3.5
Last week, I wrote about how Dallas Goedert higher than 4.5 receptions was a great play and was likely to move. Well it did and it is now posted at 5.0 receptions. Don’t be upset if you were unable to play it before it moved because I found this Rivals line that has similar value. Miles Sanders has been phased out of the receiving game recently as he has not had more than a single reception in a game since Week 14. Assuming Sanders gets a single reception, this play turns into a Goedert higher/lower 4.5 receptions line.
Goedert has been a focal point of the Eagles offense and has seen 5 receptions each of the last two weeks even though he’s barely played in the second half of either of those games. If you look at first half stats of both those playoff blowouts, Goedert is averaging 4.5 receptions per game and a 28.6% target share. I expect the Chiefs to put up significantly more of a fight than the Giants or 49ers did, and Goedert should continue to see his heavy usage in the receiving game the entire game. This is my most confident play of the week, especially since there is a chance Sanders doesn’t get any receptions. I would not play this any higher if it bumps and would rather just play Goedert’s reception line higher at 5.0 receptions.