An in-depth betting breakdown of Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday:
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Spread: Eagles -2
Opening Game Total: 49.5
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (25.75), Chiefs (23.75)
Weather: Indoor venue.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles +2 but became Eagles -2 a few hours later
- This line has settled in at Eagles -1.5
- This total opened at 49.5 points
- This total has moved up to 50.5 points
Eagles: RT Lane Johnson, OG Landon Dickerson, Edge Robert Quinn, and CB Avonte Maddox were all held out of practice last week, but do not have an injury designation as of Monday night.
Chiefs: Out: WR Mecole Hardman. Questionable: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Kadarius Toney, LB Willie Gay, CB L’Jarius Snead.
Eagles Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
At full strength, the Eagles have a top-five-level offensive line. Star right tackle Lane Johnson is playing through a torn groin muscle, while left guard Landon Dickerson has a hyperextended elbow. I’m still treating the Eagles’ offensive line as a top-five unit, but those injuries bring volatility to this otherwise outstanding group.
I have the Chiefs defensive front tiered as a fringe top-10 unit headlined by one of the NFL’s best interior defenders in Chris Jones. The Eagles have a moderate advantage in the trenches in this contest, though that margin could be reduced if Johnson or Dickerson’s injury situations trend down.
Regular-Season Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- Philadelphia is 8-9 against the spread this season
- The Eagles are 10-7 on overs this season
- Jalen Hurts is 17-16-1 against the spread in his career
- Hurts is 20-14 on overs in his career
- Nick Sirianni is 16-17-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Sirianni is 20-14 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
Eagles Offense (Regular Season)
- Philadelphia scored 28.1 points per game, good for third in the league
- The Eagles are ninth in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing
- Philadelphia passes on 56% of plays and runs on 44%, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per The Edge, Hurts is fourth among quarterbacks in yards rushing (760) and second among all runners in rushing touchdowns (13), despite missing two games
- Miles Sanders is fifth in the league in yards rushing with 1,269, and he’s eighth in rushing touchdowns with 11
- A.J. Brown is 12th in the league in receptions (88), fourth in yards receiving (1,496), tied for third in receiving touchdowns (11), eighth in target share (28.7%) and seventh in air yards share (39.4%)
- DeVonta Smith is 10th in the league in receptions (95), ninth in yards receiving (1,196), tied for 15th in receiving touchdowns (7) and 15th in target share (26.9%) with a 30.2% air yards share
- Quez Watkins breached 40 yards receiving just twice this season
- Despite missing five games, Dallas Goedert was 12th among tight ends in receptions (55), seventh in yards receiving (702), 19th in touchdowns (3), seventh in target share (19.4%) and 13th in air yards share (15%)
- Per TruMedia, Brown has played 647 snaps on the perimeter and 287 in the slot
- Brown is sixth in the league in yards after the catch, and he’s third among non-running backs
- Smith has played 789 snaps on the perimeter and 222 in the slot
- Watkins has played 179 snaps on the perimeter and 460 in the slot
- Goedert has played 412 snaps as an inline tight end, 63 on the perimeter, and 195 in the slot
Eagles Offense (Playoffs)
- The Eagles scored 38 points in the Divisional Round against the New York Giants and 31 against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship
- Hurts had 154 yards passing against the Giants; 121 against the 49ers
- Philadelphia ran for 268 yards against the Giants; 148 against the 49ers
- In those two games, Sanders had 28 carries, Kenneth Gainwell had 26 and Boston Scott had 12. Hurts added another 20 carries
- In the first half against the 49ers, Sanders had 10 carries, Gainwell had three and Scott had two. Both of Scott’s carries came in the final minute of the first half
- The Eagles held the Giants and 49ers to seven points apiece
- The Eagles were in control against the Giants from the beginning, while Philadelphia began to pull away from the 49ers towards the end of the first half
- Expect Philadelphia’s running back deployments to more closely mimic those in the first half against the 49ers, rather than the total running back carries during the Eagles’ first two playoff games
- In the playoffs, Brown has 14 total targets, Smith has 13, Goedert has 11, Zach Pascal has two, Gainwell has two and Sanders, Watkins and Jack Stoll have one each
- The Eagles passing attack generally flows through their core of Brown, Smith and Goedert. Each of those players is in a neutral or better matchup, as is Watkins
- One of the challenges of betting on Eagles’ skill position players is, in most matchups, every member of their core has a realistic path to exceeding expectations
Chiefs Defense (Regular Season)
- Kansas City allowed 21.7 points per game (16th in the league)
- The Chiefs are second in the league in sacks, 18th in forced fumbles and 21st in interceptions
- Per The Edge, Kansas City allowed the 25th-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- The Chiefs gave up the 18th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Kansas City gave up the seventh-most PPR points per game to slots receivers this year
- The Chiefs allowed the 20th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- Kansas City has allowed the most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot this year
Chiefs Offense vs. Eagles Defense
I have the Chiefs’ offensive line tiered as a top-10, bordering on a top-five group. I have the Eagles defensive front tiered as a top-five group. The Eagles led the league in sacks by a substantial margin with 70, and their front four has remarkable depth. The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is their interior, making this trench matchup a relative draw. The Eagles have a moderate advantage on the outside with a mild-to-moderate trench advantage overall.
Another factor in this trench matchup is Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. Mahomes played well against the Cincinnati Bengals, but it was clear his ability to extend plays was significantly reduced. We can reasonably expect Mahomes’ ankle to be better against the Eagles than it was against the Bengals, but likely he still won’t be fully recovered. He’ll also be facing one of the league’s premier fronts this week, while the Bengals’ pass rush is more of a bottom-10 unit.
Regular Season Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- Kansas City is 7-10 against the spread this season
- The Chiefs are 8-9 on overs this season
- Mahomes is 41-37-2 against the spread in his career
- Mahomes is 42-37-1 on overs in his career
- Andy Reid is 197-166-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach
- Reid is 181-178-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs Offense (Regular Season)
- Kansas City scored 29.2 points per game, which was the best in the league
- The Chiefs are first in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing
- Kansas City passes on 67% of plays and runs on 33% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per The Edge, Isiah Pacheco had at least 58 yards rushing in eight of his last nine regular season games
- Jerick McKinnon had a touchdown in each of his last six regular season games (a total of nine scores during that span)
- Pacheco has been the Chiefs’ primary ball carrier since Week 10 against the Jaguars, while McKinnon took on the bulk of the passing game and goal-line work
- JuJu Smith-Schuster finished the regular season with 78 receptions for 933 yards receiving and three touchdowns on a 17.1% target share and a 17.2% air yards share
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling finished the regular season with 42 receptions for 687 yards receiving and two touchdowns on a 13.2% target share and a 25.5% air yards share
- Travis Kelce finished the regular season with the third most receptions in the league (110), eighth in yards receiving (1,338) and second in receiving touchdowns (12)
- Kelce finished third among tight ends in target share (24.9%) and third in air yards share (24.2%)
- Per TruMedia, Smith-Schuster played 433 snaps on the perimeter and 298 in the slot
- Valdes-Scantling played 469 snaps on the perimeter and 264 in the slot
- Skyy Moore has played 148 snaps on the perimeter and 143 in the slot
- Kadarius Toney has played 70 snaps on the perimeter and 60 in the slot
- Kelce played 321 snaps as an inline tight end, 223 on the perimeter, and 313 in the slot this season
Chiefs Offense (Postseason)
- Kansas City scored 27 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round and 23 against the Bengals in the AFC Championship
- Mahomes threw for 195 yards passing against the Jaguars and 326 against the Bengals
- Chad Henne added 23 yards passing against the Jaguars
- Pacheco led the Chiefs in carries against the Jaguars (12) and Bengals (10). His six targets against the Bengals doubled his previous career high of three in a single game
- McKinnon had 11 carries against the Jaguars and just four carries with four targets against the Bengals. McKinnon was largely ineffective in both contests
- Kelce has 25 total targets over both playoff games, including 17 against the Jaguars
- Kelce has a 34.2% target share and a 30% air yards share in the playoffs
- After just one catch for 6 yards receiving against the Jaguars, Valdes-Scantling led the Chiefs with a 6-116-1 line on eight targets against the Bengals
- Smith-Schuster has been held to three receptions for 36 yards receiving in the playoffs
- Toney saw seven targets against the Jaguars but left the AFC Championship early because of an ankle injury
- With Toney, Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman all limited or out with injuries, Moore saw seven targets against the Bengals after just one against the Jaguars
Eagles Defense (Regular Season)
- Philadelphia allowed 20.2 points per game, which is eighth in the league
- The Eagles led the league in sacks, were seventh in forced fumbles and fourth in interceptions
- Per The Edge, Philadelphia allowed the 22nd-most yards rushing per game and the 20th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- The Eagles gave up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Philadelphia allowed the 19th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
This is a great matchup between the No. 1 seeds from each conference. The Eagles have the best roster in the league, while the Chiefs have been the measuring stick in the AFC for several years now. Both Mahomes and Hurts are MVP finalists.
Kansas City is making its third Super Bowl appearance in four years. The Eagles have a number of difference makers from their Super Bowl LII title run. The Eagles would have the Super Bowl experience advantage on a lot of teams, but not Kansas City. From their coaching staff to their roster, the Chiefs have a wealth of experience in this type of game environment.
These teams didn’t play each other this year, but they play in Week 4 of the 2021 season. The Chiefs went into Philadelphia and won that contest, 42-30. The Eagles’ roster is significantly better this season, and the Chiefs no longer have Tyreek Hill, who had 186 yards receiving and three scores in that contest. That’s why I’m largely throwing that game out when analyzing this year’s Super Bowl matchup.
If You’re Betting on the Eagles
I’ve said this many times since the beginning of the year: the Eagles have the best roster in the league. They have top-five lines on both sides of the ball, a top-10 secondary and a top-10 collection of pass catchers. Sanders finished the year fifth in the league in rushing, and Hurts is one of the MVP finalists. No other team can make all of those claims.
The Eagles are capable of a dominant performance in every phase, and they can win in multiple ways. We saw this on full display as the Eagles blew out the Giants, then the 49ers to get to this spot. Talent and versatility are the Eagles’ biggest edge in every game, including this one.
The Eagles tend to start games pass-heavy, while leaning on the run more once they’ve acquired a significant lead. One of the keys to this game is if Hurts starts hot, any opponent has their hands full. Even Mahomes’ Chiefs.
The Eagles’ pass catchers have the advantage against the Chiefs’ secondary. If the Eagles’ premium offensive line holds up against the Chiefs’ good – but not premium front – Philadelphia has a realistic path to breaching 30 points.
Similarly, the Eagles’ secondary has the advantage against Kansas City’s average receiver group. If the Eagles’ talented, extremely deep front can match even their standard level of disruption, Mahomes will have to make many big plays to win.
That brings us to the concerns you have as an Eagles’ bettor. Mahomes is a magician that just won the Conference Championship a week removed from suffering a high ankle sprain. On top of that, Reid is one of the greatest offensive strategists in the history of football. Betting against those guys is your primary concern whenever you’re betting against the Chiefs.
Pressure is your other principal concern as an Eagles bettor. The Super Bowl isn’t just a football game, it’s the most-watched annual sporting event in the United States. Hurts and a number of the best players on this loaded Eagles roster haven’t been in this spot before. That doesn’t preclude Hurts from playing well or winning this game, but it’s a condition you have to factor into your process as an Eagles bettor. Especially against a Chiefs team that consistently takes advantage of their opponent’s mistakes late in games.
If You’re Betting on the Chiefs
As always, any bet on the Chiefs starts as a bet on Mahomes and Reid’s offense. Mahomes playing at the level he did against the Bengals in the AFC Championship is remarkable. That said, Kansas City’s offense didn’t exactly blow out the Bengals or Jaguars to get here. That means you’re either building a Chiefs bet around Mahomes’ ability to exceed expectations against a talent-rich Eagles defense, while still being injured, or you’re betting against Hurts.
From a pure talent perspective, the Eagles’ offense has a number of paths to exceeding expectations in this matchup. How this game ends up ultimately boils down to how well Hurts plays. Hurts has shown he has a similarly massive ceiling to the elite quarterbacks in the league, but he’s not as consistent as Mahomes or the other members of that true upper echelon. Hurts has played in a National Championship, but he’s never played in a Super Bowl. That level of pressure is a positive for Chiefs’ bettors as Kansas City is vastly more experienced in this environment.
Your primary concern as a Chiefs’ bettor is the Eagles’ overall roster advantage. The Chiefs have advantages at quarterback, tight end and head coach. Philadelphia has them everywhere else while having its own quality quarterback, tight end and coaching staff. The Eagles are capable of beating anyone by a fair margin.
Even if the Eagles start hot, one of the best things about a Chiefs bet is Kansas City isn’t done, because no lead is safe against Mahomes. Another major positive is, much like the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick New England Patriots, the Mahomes and Reid Chiefs take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes late in games. If Mahomes has the ball late in a one-score game, no Eagles fan or bettor is going to feel safe in that position.
Score Prediction: Eagles 26, Chiefs 20
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 61-45