Betting
12/16/22
5 min read
Week 15 Saturday Player Props To Take
Below, you'll find nine Saturday player props to hit on popular sportsbooks. Get three picks from each of Ryan Reynolds, Ben Wolby and Josh Larky, as they set out to crush the three-game Saturday slate. All three of the guys are getting their props right 60% of the time in 2022, a very strong (and profitable) track record of performance.
For each line, they detail why it's a strong play statistically/logically.
Amari Cooper OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110 on Bet365) - Ryan Reynolds
- Cooper has beaten this number in seven of 13 games.
- He has nine and then seven targets in Watson’s two starts.
- This is a regression play for the Browns WR1.
Matt Ryan OVER 33.5 Pass Attempts (-125 on DraftKings) - Ben Wolby
- Ryan is averaging 38 attempts per game, fifth most among starters.
- Opponents facing the Vikings are throwing at the second-highest rate in the NFL, averaging 37 pass attempts per game.
- The Vikings allow the ninth fewest rushing yards, but eighth most targets to the RB position.
- The RBs will be involved, but likely through the pass game.
- Mike White threw 57 times against this defense, while Kyler threw 44 times against this defense.
- They both rank right next to Matt Ryan in attempts per game.
JK Dobbins OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on Bet365) - Josh Larky
- Dobbins just had 15 carries for 120 yards against the Steelers, a much better run defense.
- Cleveland allows 5.2 yards per carry (third highest, per The Edge), and they rank 30th in rush DVOA.
- Dobbins should hit this over with around 10 carries.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110 on Bet365) - Ryan Reynolds
- Waddle has beaten this in nine of 13 games.
- He's beaten this in six of his past eight games.
- He had 102 yards on four grabs in the first meeting between these teams.
- This is a regression play for one of the NFL's top WRs.
Mike Gesicki Longest Reception UNDER 12.5 Yards (-110 on DraftKings) - Ben Wolby
- The Bills defense allows just eight 8.0 per reception to the TE position, second-fewest in the league, per The Edge.
- The Bills run the second-most Cover 2 defense in the entire NFL.
- When Tua targets the TE position, he does it the least frequently against Cover 2.
- Tua’s taken 79 dropbacks against Cover 2, the sixth most in the NFL, and he’s targeted Gesicki just four times despite that.
- Gesicki hasn’t had a single reception over the past three games.
Matt Ryan OVER 22.5 Completions (-105 on DraftKings) - Josh Larky
- Ryan has been OVER this number in seven of 11 games this year.
- The Vikings simply cannot stop the pass and teams know this.
- Week 6 vs. Miami, the Vikings allowed 30 completions.
- Week 7 the Vikings were on BYE.
- Week 8 vs. Arizona, the Vikings allowed 31 completions.
- Week 9 vs. the Commanders, the Vikings allowed 15 completions.
- Week 10 vs. Buffalo, the Vikings allowed 29 completions.
- Week 11 vs. Dallas, the Vikings allowed 26 completions.
- Week 12 vs. New England, the Vikings allowed 28 completions.
- Week 13 vs. the Jets, the Vikings allowed 31 completions.
- Week 14 vs. the Lions, the Vikings allowed 27 completions.
- Overall, seven of the past eight QBs facing Minnesota completed at least 26 passes.
Dalvin Cook OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on Bet365) - Ryan Reynolds
- Cook is sixth in the league in yards rushing.
- He has beat this in nine of 13 games.
- He beat this in seven of eight home games.
- In the Colts' last game, both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot beat this number.
- The Colts are an average run defense without Shaquille Leonard.
Chase McLaughlin OVER 1.5 Field Goals (+110 on DraftKings) - Ben Wolby
- The last time he attempted just one field goal in a game was Week 7, and he’s made at least two field goals in seven of 12 games.
- That's just above 50%, but the +110 means this bet would only need to hit in 47% of games, when in reality it's hitting in 58% of games.
- The Vikings are allowing the third most field goals (28 on the season), which is just over two per game.
- Seven of 12 opposing kickers went over this number.
- But, five of six opposing kickers went over this number in US Bank Stadium.
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- Those kickers averaged three field goals made per game – median is 3.5.
- It's a dome game with no weather, and a stadium where opposing kickers are kicking the most field goals per game.
Deshaun Watson OVER 216.5 Passing Yards (-110 on Bet365) - Josh Larky
- The Ravens allow 3.7 yards per carry to RBs (fourth fewest in NFL, per The Edge)
- Watson threw 22 times for 131 yards in Week 13, then 42 times for 276 yards in Week 14.
- He displayed much better efficiency metrics in Week 14 against the Bengals, despite them being a much better pass defense than the Texans.
- In eight of 13 games, the Ravens allowed MORE passing yards than this number.
- The Ravens allow 7.6 yards per pass attempt, fifth highest to QBs, via The Edge.
- I'm not too concerned with Cleveland blowing out Baltimore, since the betting line is only -3, and the Ravens' defense is quite good overall.
- Basically, I’m betting on Watson being a better QB this week than last, and he should hit this over with around 30 pass attempts.
To hear the guys' banter, tune into the Player Prop Happy Hour, Saturday Edition, here. At the end of that video, Josh breaks down the reasoning behind each of his five bonus props.
BONUS
JK Dobbins Anytime TD (+210 on FanDuel) - Josh Larky
JK Dobbins 75+ Rushing Yards (+360 on Bet365) - Josh Larky
JK Dobbins 100+ Rushing Yards (+1125 on Bet365) - Josh Larky
JK Dobbins 75+ Rushing Yards and a TD (+750 on Bet365/DraftKings) - Josh Larky
Deshaun Watson 250+ Passing Yards (+225 on Bet365) - Josh Larky
We hope you enjoyed reading through these Saturday player props. As always, bet responsibly.
WATCH MORE: Which Underdog Picks Should You Take This Week?
