Receiving Unders in Colts-Cowboys Highlight Week 13 Underdog Picks

Underdog High/Low Picks

Josh Larky & Ben Wolby outline 13 Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take in Week 13. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

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Dameon Pierce HIGHER than 70.5 RushYds – Josh Larky

  • Cleveland allows 5.2 yards per carry (YPC) to opposing RBs.
    • 14 carries *5.2 YPC = 73 rushing yards.
  • Prior to the past two weeks against pass funnel defenses, Pierce had 14+ carries in each of his prior eight games.
  • The Browns are 31st in run defense, via Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
  • If we look at run DVOA, we see that Pierce excels against bad run defenses (like CLE), while struggling against the top options.
    • Pierce was HIGHER than 70.5 rushing yards against CHI (28th), LAC (29th), JAX (13th), LVR (23rd), PHI (24th), and NYG (27th).
    • Pierce was LOWER than 70.5 rushing yards against DEN (17th), TEN (1st), WAS (4th), and MIA (12th).
  • The Texans will be extra motivated to beat Deshaun Watson’s Browns, and their path to victory lies with Pierce and the run game, especially with Brandin Cooks ruled OUT (calf).

Latavius Murray LOWER than 53.5 Rushing Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Get rid of Murray’s 52-yard run against the Panthers last week, and Murray has been HIGHER than this number in just one of his six games with the Broncos.
  • Denver’s offensive line is not great, as Broncos RBs are averaging just 3.95 YPC this year, the sixth-fewest in the NFL, per The Edge.
  • Team RBs are averaging 68.5 rushing yards against the Ravens, the fourth-fewest in the NFL.
  • Mike Boone is likely to return from IR this week, and will figure to cut into Murray’s workload.

Treylon Burks HIGHER than 42.5 Receiving Yards – Larky

  • Burks has six or more targets in three straight games since returning from IR in Week 10.
  • He has 111 and 70 yards receiving over his past two games.
  • Overall, he’s been HIGHER in four of seven games, and the role for him keeps growing as a rookie first-round WR.
  • TEN is projected to lose, so there’s strong potential for negative game script and more passing than usual from the Titans.
  • Ryan Tannehill has 255 or more passing yards each of the past three games with Burks back in action.

Christian Kirk HIGHER than 61.5 Receiving Yards – Wolby

  • Kirk has been HIGHER than this number in six of 11 games this season
  • A whopping nine WRs have been HIGHER than this number against DET (in 11 games, and when looking purely at stats from WRs out of the slot).
    • Kirk is legally allowed to line up outside, as well (101 of his 636 snaps are out wide).

Brandon Aiyuk HIGHER than 54.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Aiyuk has topped this in six of his last seven games. The only game he didn’t finish HIGHER, he was still a top priority, receiving two TDs. Aiyuk is the WR1 in this offense.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing line is set at 246.5 yards, a number he’s topped just three times this season. Vegas expects him to pass more, given a negative game script and a solid matchup with the fifth-highest Vegas game total in Week 13.
    • MIA runs the fifth-highest rate of Cover 3, and Jimmy G has the seventh-most passing yards this year against Cover 3, per The Edge.
  • Miami has the eighth-worst pass DVOA in the NFL, and have allowed 12 WRs to top this line through 11 games.

Diontae Johnson LOWER than 5.0 Receptions – Larky

  • Johnson has been at or LOWER than this number in every game played with QB Kenny Pickett this season (eight games).

Darius Slayton HIGHER than 46.5 Receiving Yards – Larky

  • He has at least 58 receiving yards in six of his past seven games.
  • WAS is a pass funnel defense, and the Giants’ path to winning this game offensively will have to come through the air.

Tyler Lockett LOWER than 5 Receptions – Wolby

  • Lockett has more than five receptions in just four games this year, including having five or fewer receptions in four straight games.
  • Seattle is a seven-point favorite in this matchup against the Rams. This is the third-largest spread margin in the NFL this week. Seattle rushes the ball on about 60% of plays in positive game scripts.

Courtland Sutton HIGHER than 62.5 Receiving Yards – Larky

  • He has at least 66 yards in each of his past three games without Jerry Jeudy, who should miss Week 13 after not practicing this week.
  • Sutton has still been HIGHER in four of eight games with Jeudy, so Sutton is clearly talented in his own right.
  • Eleven WRs have at least 71 receiving yards against BAL this season.

Garrett Wilson HIGHER than 58.5 Receiving Yards – Wolby

  • Wilson saw 19 yards per reception last week with Mike White playing QB, with a longest reception of 43 yards (92 total yards).
  • Wilson’s 29% target share was by far the highest on the team, with the next-closest player (Corey Davis) having 11%.
  • Minnesota allows the third-most receptions longer than 20 yards, the fourth-most air yards per game, and the third-most yards after catch per game to opposing WRs.

Alec Pierce LOWER than 31.5 Receiving Yards – Larky

  • Alec Pierce has been a smaller part of the offense the past month, with Parris Campbell as the new WR2 for the Colts.
  • Pierce has just four catches over his past four games, with two targets in three of his past four games.
  • DAL is the top-ranked pass DVOA.
  • DAL allows the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs.

Miles Sanders HIGHER than 5.5 Receiving Yards – Wolby

  • Opposing teams have targeted RBs against the Titans 101 times, the highest in the NFL, via The Edge
    • Eight of the 12 opposing starting RBs have topped this number.
  • Sanders is averaging 7.5 yards per game in games where he has at least one reception, and is averaging 1.5 receptions per game.
  • Realistically, Sanders needs one reception for him to have HIGHER than 5.5 receiving yards, and RBs are targeted more frequently against Tennessee than any other team.

CeeDee Lamb LOWER than 6.0 Receptions – Larky

  • Lamb has been HIGHER than this number in only one of six games played with Dak this season.
  • Only two WRs have been HIGHER than six receptions against IND all season (Davante Adams and Brandin Cooks).

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We hope you enjoyed reading through these 13 Underdog High/Low Picks for Week 13. As always, deposit your money responsibly.

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