Betting

NFL Wild Card Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Dolphins vs. Bills

Dolphins (9-8) at Bills (13-3)

Opening Spread: Bills -11

Opening Game Total: 44

Opening Team Totals: Bills (27.5) Dolphins (16.5)

Weather: Outdoors, cold temperatures

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Bills -11
  • This line has moved to Bills -13
  • This total opened at 44-points
  • This total has moved to 43.5-points

Notable Injuries

Bills: Questionable: WR Isaiah McKenzie, DT Jordan Phillips, S Jordan Poyer.

Dolphins: Out: QB Tua Tagovailoa. Questionable: QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Raheem Mostert, WR Jaylen Waddle, LT Terron Armstead, LG Liam Eichenberg, RT Brandon Shell, Edge Bradley Chubb, Edge Jaelan Phillips.

The Bills Offense vs. Dolphins Defense

I have the Bills’ offensive line tiered toward the back of league average, but Josh Allen’s unique skill set elevates that group in both phases. I have the Dolphins defensive front tiered toward the front of league average. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Bills are 8-8 against the spread this season
  • The Bills are 6-10 on overs this season
  • Josh Allen is 43-29-4 against the spread in his career
  • Josh Allen is 32-42-2 on overs in his career
  • Sean McDermott is 53-39-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Sean McDermott is 43-52-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach 

Bills Offense

  • The Bills scored 28.4 points per game, good for second in the league
  • Buffalo is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing
  • The Bills are passing on 54% of their plays and running on 46% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per the Edge, Josh Allen finished the season with 762 yards rushing, which is third among quarterbacks
  • Devin Singletary finished the season with 819 yards rushing, which was 26th in the league
  • Singletary has double-digit carries in eight of his past 11 games
  • James Cook has seen sporadic usage throughout the year, but he’s had 20 total carries over his previous two games
  • Stefon Diggs finished the season fourth in receptions (108), fifth in yards receiving (1,429), fourth in receiving touchdowns (11), 14th in target share (27.6%), and 18th in air yards share (34.3%)
  • Gabe Davis finished the season with 48 receptions for 836 yards receiving and seven touchdowns with a 17.9% target share and a 30.5% air yards share
  • Isaiah McKenzie has surpassed 50 yards receiving in only two of his 15 games this season
  • Dawson Knox finished the season with 48 receptions for 517 yards receiving and six touchdowns with a 12.7% target share and a 10.3% air yards share
  • Knox has a receiving touchdown in each of his last four games
  • Per TruMedia, Knox has played 395 snaps as an inline tight end, 81 on the perimeter, and 263 in the slot

Dolphins Defense

  • The Dolphins allowed 23.5 points per game, which is 24th in the league
  • Miami is 14th in the league in sacks, 10th in forced fumbles, and 29th in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Dolphins allowed the third-fewest yards rushing per game and the seventh-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Miami gave up the 15th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • The Dolphins allowed the ninth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
  • The Dolphins have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the ninth-most to those lined up in the slot 

The Dolphins Offense vs. Bills Defense

I have the Dolphins’ offensive line tiered as a below-average unit. I have the Bills’ injury-reduced defensive front tiered toward the front end of league average. Buffalo has a moderate advantage in the trenches in this contest.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Dolphins are 9-8 against the spread this season
  • The Dolphins are 8-9 on overs this season
  • Skylar Thompson is 1-1 against the spread in his career
  • Skylar Thompson is 0-2 on overs in his career
  • Mike McDaniel is 9-8 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Mike McDaniel is 8-9 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach

Dolphins Offense

  • The Dolphins scored 23.4 points per game, which is 11th in the league
  • Miami is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 25th in yards rushing
  • The Dolphins are passing on 65% of their plays and running on 35% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Now that Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out, Skylar Thompson is being prepped to take on the Bills
  • Per the Edge, Jeff Wilson has 31 total carries and nine targets over the past two games, while Raheem Mostert has 20 total carries and 10 targets over that span
  • When both running backs are active, consider Miami a “ride the hot hand” offense
  • Tyreek Hill finished the season second in receptions (119), second in yards receiving (1,710), 14th in receiving touchdowns (7), third in target share (30.4%) and sixth in air yards share (41.4%)
  • Jaylen Waddle finished the season with 75 receptions for 1,356 yards receiving and eight touchdowns with a 20.7% target share and a 27.5% air yards share
  • After seeing two or fewer targets in five straight games, Mike Gesicki has ten total targets over his last two games
  • Per TruMedia, Tyreek Hill has played 445 snaps on the perimeter and 292 in the slot
  • Jaylen Waddle has played 598 snaps on the perimeter and 139 in the slot

 

Bills Defense

  • The Bills allowed 17.9 points per game, which is second in the league
  • Buffalo is 14th in the league in sacks, 22nd in forced fumbles, and fourth in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Bills allowed the 23rd-most yards rushing per game and the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Buffalo gave up the seventh-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Buffalo gave up the fifth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers
  • The Bills allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season

This Is What You’re Betting On

The AFC East rival Bills and Dolphins played two very compelling games against each other this season. The Dolphins won the first matchup 21-19 back in Week 3 in Miami. The Bills won the second tilt under the lights and in the snow 32-29 in Week 15 in Buffalo. The major difference between this game and those contests is that Tua Tagovailoa will miss this matchup. Skylar Thompson is set to get the start at quarterback for Miami. The Dolphins went 3-5 in their final eight games, though they lost five in a row leading into the season finale against the Jets, which Miami won 11-6. Buffalo won their last seven games after losing to the Vikings in overtime in Week 10. Buffalo had its Week 17 game against the Bengals canceled after safety Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac event on the field.

If You’re Betting on the Bills

Buffalo has a lot going for it in this contest. First and foremost, if you need to win a game by distance like Bills bettors do in this contest, Josh Allen is one of the guys you want spearheading that effort. Allen is a perennial MVP contender, and his Bills have won five games by 14 or more points this season. If you’re betting on Buffalo, the Bills’ offense has enough ceiling to beat this number. If Tua Tagovailoa was the Dolphins’ quarterback in this contest, Miami is a seven-point underdog at most. With Skylar Thompson at the helm for the Dolphins, the Bills’ defense could realistically hold Miami below their meager 16.5-point game total. If you’re betting on the Bills, you need a blowout victory to cover, and they could realistically dominate Miami in both phases.

You have two core concerns as a Bills bettor. The first is coach Mike McDaniel has shown that he can get elite speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle open in space. Skylar Thompson’s offense struggled mightily against the Jets last week, so you’re not too concerned about Miami’s offense stringing together several long scoring drives. But Hill and Waddle are both game breakers who are capable of turning one play into a scoring drive. Your second biggest concern as a Bills bettor is that Miami’s defense creates a few turnovers that keep this game close. 

 

If You’re Betting on the Dolphins

Not having Tagovailoa for this matchup is a tough one for Dolphins fans, as Miami would be a very real threat to leave Buffalo with a win if Tua was active for this game. The chances of that outcome are greatly reduced with Skylar Thompson at the helm. If you’re betting on Miami, you’re primarily betting on Mike McDaniel’s ability to put Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in positions to make plays despite their quarterback situation. Thompson has been very underwhelming in all four of his significant appearances this season. Building a bet around Miami’s offense is pretty thin with Thompson at the helm. That means you’d have to build a bet around Miami’s defense against Josh Allen’s offense. Considering that Allen threw for a total of 704 yards during his two games against Miami this season, it’s difficult to build a bet from that angle as well.

Your primary concern as a Dolphins bettor is that Josh Allen’s offense at least meets expectations, while Skyler Thompson’s offense looks like it has in the other four games that he’s seen notable playing time this season.

Score Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 13

Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 48-32

Props 2022: 57-40

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