Betting

NFL Wild Card Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Chargers vs. Jaguars

Chargers (10-7) at Jaguars (9-8)

Opening Spread: Jaguars +1

Opening Game Total: 47.5

Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (23.25) Chargers (24.25)

Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Jaguars +1
  • This line has moved to Jaguars +2.5
  • This total opened at 47.5 points
  • This total has moved to 46.5 points

Notable Injuries

Jaguars: Questionable: QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Jamal Agnew, RG Brandon Scherff, PK Riley Patterson

Chargers: Questionable: WR Mike Williams

The Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense

Since the loss of left tackle Cam Robinson, I have moved the Jaguars’ offensive line to the fringe top-ten area. Now that Joey Bosa is back, I have moved the Chargers’ defensive front up to the fringe top-ten area. The Chargers are a unique defensive front, as they have a premium edge rush duo at full strength, yet their run defense is famously exploitable. The Chargers’ pass rush has a moderate-to-significant trench advantage with Cam Robinson sidelined, but the Jaguars’ offensive line has the same type of advantage in the run game.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Jaguars are 8-9 against the spread this season
  • The Jaguars are 8-9 on overs this season
  • Trevor Lawrence is 13-21 against the spread in his career
  • Trevor Lawrence is 13-21 on overs in his career
  • Doug Pederson is 46-51 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Doug Pederson is 47-50 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach

Jaguars Offense

  • The Jaguars scored 23.8 points per game, good for tenth in the league
  • Jacksonville is 12th in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing
  • The Jaguars are passing on 62% of their plays and running on 38% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per the Edge, Travis Etienne finished ninth in the league in yards rushing with 1,125 and 15th among running backs in yards receiving with 316
  • Christian Kirk finished the year with 84 receptions for 1,108 yards receiving and eight touchdowns with a 23.2% target share and a 29.4% air yards share
  • Zay Jones finished the year with 82 receptions for 823 yards receiving and five touchdowns with a 22.1% target share and a 25.9% air yards share
  • Marvin Jones finished the year with 46 receptions for 529 yards receiving and three touchdowns with a 14.6% target share and a 26.8% air yards share
  • Evan Engram finished the year with 73 receptions for 766 yards receiving and four touchdowns with a 17% target share and a 14.4% air yards share

Chargers Defense

  • The Chargers allowed 22.6 points per game, which is 21st in the league
  • Los Angeles is 14th in the league in sacks, seventh in forced fumbles, and 12th in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Chargers allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and 26th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Los Angeles gave up the 24th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • The Chargers allowed the 12th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season 

 

The Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense

Rashawn Slater will not return for this contest, which leaves the Chargers’ offensive line in slightly below-average territory. The Jaguars’ defensive front has been among the more difficult units for me to tier because it is inconsistent yet has a difference-making ceiling, as we saw against the Titans last week. I’m treating this trench matchup as if the Jaguars’ pass rush has a moderate advantage.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Chargers are 11-5-1 against the spread this season
  • The Chargers are 7-9-1 on overs this season
  • Justin Herbert is 27-21-1 against the spread in his career
  • Justin Herbert is 26-22-1 on overs in his career
  • Brandon Staley is 19-14-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Brandon Staley is 17-16-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach

Chargers Offense

  • The Chargers scored 23 points per game, which is 13th in the league
  • Los Angeles is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing
  • The Chargers are passing on 69% of their plays and running on 31% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per the Edge, Austin Ekeler finished 18th in the league in yards rushing with 915 and tied for second in rushing touchdowns with 13
  • Ekeler was second among running backs in yards receiving with 722 and tied for second in receiving touchdowns with five 
  • In ten games, Keenan Allen finished with 66 receptions for 752 yards receiving and four touchdowns with a 22.5% target share and a 29.9% air yards share
  • In 13 games, Mike Williams finished with 63 receptions for 895 yards receiving and four touchdowns with a 17.8% target share with a 31.7% air yards share
  • Josh Palmer finished with 72 receptions for 769 yards receiving and three touchdowns with a 17% target share and a 26.1% air yards share
  • Gerald Everett finished with 58 receptions for 555 yards receiving and four touchdowns with a 13.1% target share and an 11.2% air yards share
  • Per TruMedia, Keenan Allen has played 204 snaps on the perimeter and 298 in the slot
  • Mike Williams has played 588 snaps on the perimeter and 89 in the slot
  • Josh Palmer has played 638 snaps on the perimeter and 223 in the slot
  • Gerald Everett has played 356 snaps as an in-line tight end, 79 on the perimeter, and 206 in the slot

Jaguars Defense

  • The Jaguars allowed 20.6 points per game, which is 12th in the league
  • Jacksonville is 25th in the league in sacks, fourth in forced fumbles, and 12th in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Jaguars allowed the 24th-most yards rushing per game and third-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Jacksonville gave up the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Jacksonville gave up the sixth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers this year
  • The Jaguars allowed the fourth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
  • The Jaguars allowed the second-most PPR points per game to tight ends in the slot this season

 

This Is What You’re Betting on

Back in Week 3, the Jaguars blew out the Chargers 38-10 in Los Angeles. While that surprising outcome shouldn’t be outright ignored, both teams are significantly different now than they were early in the season. The Chargers went 5-3 in their final eight games, while holding four of their last five opponents to 17 points or less. The Jaguars went 6-2 in their final eight games, while giving up 22 total points over their last three contests.

This is a matchup between two of the very best young quarterbacks in the league.

If You’re Betting on the Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars are going to be a factor in the AFC for years to come. Lawrence himself is already playing like a top-ten quarterback, Travis Etienne was ninth in the league in yards rushing, the Jaguars have an above-average offensive line, and their group of pass-catchers improved as the season progressed. The Jaguars also have a young defense that has given up ten or fewer points in five different games. The ceiling for this young team is already pretty considerable, and that’s what you’re betting on when you bet on the Jaguars. Your primary concern as a Jaguars bettor is that this young team can be pretty inconsistent, especially on defense.

Jacksonville has struggled against enemy running backs in the passing game, and they draw one of the very best in that phase in Austin Ekeler. The loss of left tackle Cam Robinson is a big one in this contest, as the Chargers have one of the best edge duos in the league in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. From a matchups perspective, those are your two biggest concerns as a Jaguars bettor. Your third-biggest concern is that the Chargers are used to playing the Chiefs twice a year in high-interest, spotlight games. This young Jaguars team really played its first high-pressure game last week against Josh Dobbs’ Tennessee Titans.

If You’re Betting on the Chargers

The Chargers are a very dangerous wild card team with a premium quarterback, a high-end skill group, and an elite edge duo that can close out games. No other AFC playoff team has those three things, which is why the Chargers can potentially go on a run. That’s what you’re building a Chargers bet around. Your primary concern as a Chargers bettor is that Travis Etienne has a big day on the ground while Trevor Lawrence continues to play like a top-ten quarterback in just his second season. I’ve been talking about the Jaguars’ young, blue-chip edge duo all year. If the Jaguars have a late lead, the Chargers’ offensive line could struggle against the Jaguars’ pass rush.

Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Jaguars 23

Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 48-32

Props 2022: 57-40

WATCH: Betting the AFC Playoffs

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