Betting
11/4/22
8 min read
NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5)
Opening Spread: Cardinals -2.5
Opening Game Total: 49.5
Opening Team Totals: Cardinals (26), Seahawks (23.5)
Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cardinals -2.5.
- This line remains at Cardinals -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cardinals -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cardinals -2.
- This total opened at 49.5 points.
- This total remains at 49.5.
Notable Injuries
Cardinals: Out: WR Marquise Brown, G Justin Pugh, C Rodney Hudson; Questionable: RB James Conner, LT D.J. Humphries, LG Max Garcia, Edge Dennis Gardeck, CB Byron Murphy Jr., S Budda Baker
Seahawks: Out: S Jamal Adams; Questionable: WR Marquise Goodwin, Edge Darrell Taylor, S Ryan Neal
The Cardinals Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
The Cardinals' offensive line is already down their center and one of their guards, making them a below average unit. Arizona’s left tackle and left guard are both listed on the injury report. If those two plays trend down as we get closer to kickoff, the Cardinals could enter this game down three starters and Justin Pugh’s replacement on their offensive line. Fortunately for Arizona, Kyler Murray’s evasion abilities are an asset in pass protection, and Seattle has a bottom-tier front. Despite the injuries this trench matchup is a relative draw, though I’d give Seattle a minor edge if LT D.J. Humphries ends up missing this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cardinals are 4-4 against the spread this season.
- The Cardinals are 3-4-1 on overs this season.
- Kyler Murray is 28-24-2 against the spread in his career.
- Kyler Murray is 23-29-2 on overs in his career.
- Kliff Kingsbury is 30-25-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kliff Kingsbury is 25-30-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Cardinals Offense
- The Cardinals are scoring 22.8 points per game, good for 15th in the league.
- Arizona is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing.
- Kyler Murray had 100 yards rushing on 10 carries against the Seahawks earlier this year.
- With James Conner and Darrell Williams out, Eno Benjamin took on a full workload. With Conner out and Williams back, it was much closer to a split.
- James Conner had six targets in both of his games against Seattle last year.
- Per the Edge, over the two games since he’s returned to action, DeAndre Hopkins leads the league in target share (37.5%) and air yards share (57.9%).
- Rondale Moore has eight or more targets in three of his last four games.
- Among tight ends Zach Ertz is seventh in target share (19.1%) and fifth in air yards share (20%).
- Ertz had 10 targets and seven receptions against Seattle earlier this season.
Seahawks Defense
- The Seahawks have allowed 24.9 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Kyler Murray had 100 yards rushing against the Seahawks earlier this year.
- Seattle sacked Murray six times in that matchup.
- Per The Edge, the Seahawks have allowed the 13th-most yards rushing per game and the third-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Seattle has given up the 28th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Seahawks have allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Seahawks Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
Seattle’s offense has exceeded just about everyone’s expectations this season. That goes for their offensive line as well, who I consider a fringe top-10 unit. Arizona has a bottom-tier front, giving Seattle’s offensive line an edge in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Seahawks are 5-3 against the spread this season.
- The Seahawks are 4-4 on overs this season.
- Geno Smith is 31-21-2 against the spread in his career.
- Geno Smith is 26-27-1 on overs in his career.
- Pete Carrol is 107-87-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Pete Carrol is 100-98-3 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
Seahawks Offense
- The Seahawks are scoring 26.3 points per game, good for fourth in the league.
- Seattle is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among running backs Kenneth Walker is 17th in yards rushing per game.
- Walker has breached 80 yards rushing in three of his last four games.
- DK Metcalf leads the Seahawks in target share (25.6%) and air yards share (36.8%).
- Tyler Lockett is second on the Seahawks in target share (25.2%) and air yards share (34.8%).
- Noah Fant has an 11.6% target share, while Will Dissly’s is 9.1%.
- Per TruMedia, DK Metcalf has played 287 snaps on the perimeter and 59 in the slot.
- Tyler Lockett has played 224 snaps on the perimeter and 138 in the slot.
Cardinals Defense
- The Cardinals have allowed 26.3 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cardinals have allowed the 24th-most yards rushing per game and the 11th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Arizona has given up the 12th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Arizona has given up the ninth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Cardinals have allowed the second-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Cardinals have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and the second-most to those in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Cardinals vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 19-9 earlier this year in Seattle. With Geno Smith playing at a legitimately elite level, these two rosters have a lot of similarities. While we’ve already seen these two teams play in a game that went way under, neither team has a threatening pass rush, both teams have high-end skill position players, and both quarterbacks have a pretty high ceiling. There’s some shootout potential here in an indoor game.
If you’re betting on Arizona, you are primarily betting on Kyler Murray’s offense at least meeting expectations this week. Seattle’s defense dominated the Giants last week, but they’ll be facing a significantly better offense here. On the other side of the ball, Arizona has been doing a good job of keeping everything in front of them on defense, so to speak. One of the reasons for that is they are much better at safety than at cornerback, and their defensive play-calling has been cognizant of that. My biggest concern with a Cardinals bet is that their offensive line has been ravaged by injuries, to the point where they will be down two to three starters in this matchup. If the Seahawks had a significant front and Kyler Murray wasn’t as evasive as he is, I’d view this game much differently due to the state of the Cardinals' offensive line.
I’ve mentioned on a few shows this week that I’m now embracing Geno Smith’s stunning play as the new reality. He’s making high-difficulty throws every week, and the Seahawks have one of the better wide receiver duos in football. That, paired with Kenneth Walker running behind a better-than-expected offensive line, has made the Seahawks a top-10 type of offense. If you’re betting on Seattle in this spot, you’re betting on their offense to at least meet expectations. Seattle’s defense has overachieved often over the last couple of seasons, but Pete Carrol is really getting the most out of that group this season. My biggest concern with a Seahawks bet is that they regress to the mean against a Cardinals team in a much more desperate position than they’re in.
Awards Market Ramifications: Geno Smith is a Comeback Player of the Year contender. Kenneth Walker is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Pete Carrol is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Cardinals in winner pools. I expect to be a little higher than consensus on Arizona in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I intend to take the Cardinals in one of my ATS tournament entries, but that may change if D.J. Humphries sits.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 27-13
Props 2022: 26-15
WATCH MORE: Lovie Smith's Tampa 2 Defense No Match for Jalen Hurts
