Analysis
11/5/22
8 min read
NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Rams vs. Bucs
Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
Opening Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.
Opening Game Total: 42.5.
Opening Team Totals: Buccaneers (22.5), Rams (20)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Buccaneers -2.5.
- This line remains at Buccaneers -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Buccaneers -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Buccaneers -3.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total remains at 42.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Buccaneers: Out: WR Russell Gage, TE Cameron Brate, LG Luke Goedeke, C Ryan Jensen, Edge Shaquil Barrett, S Antoine Winfield Jr. Questionable: DL Akiem Hicks, CB Carlton Davis, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting.
Rams: Out: LT Joe Noteboom. Questionable: WR Van Jefferson, C Brian Allen.
The Buccaneers Offense vs. the Rams Defense
This trench matchup is a relative draw, while Aaron Donald represents an enormous challenge for the Bucs. From a macro sense, the Buccaneers have a fringe top-ten offensive line, while the Rams have a borderline below-average front. That said, a third-string left guard and a backup center will see plenty of reps against Donald.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Buccaneers are 2-6 against the spread this season.
- The Buccaneers are 2-6 on overs this season.
- Tom Brady is 186-129-11 against the spread in his career.
- Tom Brady is 169-155-2 on overs in his career.
- Todd Bowles is 34-37-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Todd Bowles is 37-38 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Buccaneers Offense
- The Buccaneers are scoring 18.3 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Tampa Bay is sixth in the league in yards passing per game and last in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Leonard Fournette has only breached 100 yards rushing in one game this season. Fournette has had at least six targets in four of his eight games.
- Mike Evans has double-digit targets and over 90 yards receiving in each of the last two games.
- Chris Godwin has double-digit targets in four of the last five games.
- In his return to action last week, Julio Jones had two receptions for 21 yards receiving and a score on four targets.
- Cade Otton has had five or more targets in three of the last four games.
- Per TruMedia, Mike Evans has played 289 snaps on the perimeter and 93 in the slot.
- Chris Godwin has played 89 snaps on the perimeter and 189 in the slot.
- Julio Jones has played 60 snaps on the perimeter and 24 in the slot.
Rams Defense
- The Rams have allowed 22.4 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Rams have allowed the 16th-most yards rushing per game and the ninth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the 16th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Los Angeles has given up the second-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers.
- The Rams have allowed the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Rams Offense vs. the Buccaneers Defense
The absence of Shaquil Barrett turns the Bucs solid front into a borderline below-average one. Additionally, Tampa Bay has been a dominant defense against the run in recent years. That isn’t the case this season. That’s all welcome news for a struggling, bottom-tier Rams offensive line. The Bucs still have a mild edge in the trenches, but it’s not the game-breaking one it might have been if Barrett had been active.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Rams are 2-5 against the spread this season.
- The Rams are 2-5 on overs this season.
- Matthew Stafford is 84-100-5 against the spread in his career.
- Matthew Stafford is 96-90-3 on overs in his career.
- Sean McVay is 45-41-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McVay is 41-46-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Rams Offense
- The Rams are scoring 16.9 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Los Angeles is 11th in the league in yards passing per game and second to last in yards rushing.
- The Rams backfield is a mess, as three different runners saw between four and eight carries last week against the 49ers. Cam Akers practiced this week, which could make these already muddy backfield deployments worse.
- Per the Edge, Cooper Kupp is second in the league in receptions (64), fifth in yards receiving (686), second in target share (33.5%), and ninth in air yards share (40.8%).
- Allen Robinson has breached 50 yards receiving in a game three times this year and has yet to top 65 yards receiving in a game.
- Among tight ends, Tyler Higbee is fourth in the league in target share (21.9%).
- Per TruMedia, Higbee has played 262 snaps as an inline tight end, 72 on the perimeter, and 50 in the slot.
Buccaneers Defense
- The Buccaneers have allowed 18.9 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Buccaneers have allowed the ninth-most yards rushing per game and the fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tampa Bay has given up the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Buccaneers have allowed the seventh-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Buccaneers have allowed the most PPR points to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This is What You’re Betting On in Rams vs. Buccaneers
This is a game between two of the most disappointing teams in the league this season. These teams played in the regular season and again in the playoffs last year. The Rams won the regular season matchup 34-24 and the playoff game 30-27. These teams are significantly different than last season, so I give last year’s matchups limited weight.
If you’re betting on the Bucs, you are betting on a Tom Brady team on a three-game losing streak. That simply doesn’t happen on Brady teams. The Bucs are coming off a long week after losing to the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. In that contest, they gave a playoff-caliber team a tight game, which is a positive sign for a struggling team.
I have two core concerns with a Bucs bet. The first is that Rams' future Hall of Fame defensive linemen Aaron Donald will get plenty of reps against a third-string left guard and a backup center. The second is that Tampa is down two of their best defensive starters, with Shaquil Barrett’s absence being a big one against a bottom-tier Rams offensive line. If Barrett was good to go for this one, I’d be more enthusiastic about the Bucs in this matchup. As things stand now, this game is more about the Rams offense continuing to underwhelm instead of the Bucs pass rush potentially derailing this contest.
Like Tampa Bay, the Rams are struggling, losing three of their last four games. Their offense has been a shell of the group that won the Super Bowl last year. Cooper Kupp, who will be gritting through an ankle injury in this one, is truly the only piece of the offense that hasn’t taken a step back this season. Mathew Stafford is still a high-quality quarterback, but it’s nearly impossible for pocket passers like him to be effective behind below-average line play.
If you’re betting on the Rams, you are betting on their offensive line playing one of their better games against a Bucs front that is down their best pass rusher. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Donald is generally capable of derailing any game, but he has a clear path to having a field day against the Buccaneers' third-string left guard and backup center. If I’m betting on the Rams, I’m betting on their defense more than their offense.
Rams vs. Buccaneers Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Tampa Bay in winner pools, and I’m going to rank this game as far down as I reasonably can in my confidence rankings.
Spread Pool: I don’t think I will play this game directly this week, but I’d lean towards the Bucs side if I had to choose.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 27-13
Props 2022: 26-15
WATCH MORE: Former NFL Head Coach Marvin Lewis explains why a real running game could help Tom Brady.
