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NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Dolphins vs. Bears

Khalil Herbert Bears vs. Dolphins 2021

Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Chicago Bears (3-5)

Opening Spread: Bears +4.5

Opening Game Total: 44.5

Opening Team Totals: Bears (20), Dolphins (24.5)

Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Bears +4.5.
  • This line has moved up to Bears +5 at some sportsbooks.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bears +4.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bears +5.
  • This total opened at 44.5 points.
  • This total remains at 44.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Bears: Questionable: OL Cody Whitehair, RT Larry Borom, CB Kyler Gordon, S Eddie Jackson

Dolphins: Out: CB Byron Jones; Questionable: LT Terron Armstead, RT Austin Jackson, DT Raekwon Davis, S Eric Rowe

The Bears Offense vs. Dolphins Defense

The Bradley Chubb trade makes the Dolphins’ front a middle-of-the-pack unit. The Bears’ offensive line has been getting better, but it is still a below average group. Justin Fields’ mobility has been a major asset for the Bears in pass protection. Miami’s front has a moderate trench advantage in this contest, even though we shouldn’t expect Chubb to be in his full role this week.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Bears are 3-4-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Bears are 4-4 on overs this season.
  • Justin Fields is 7-12-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Justin Fields is 8-12 on overs in his career.
  • Matt Eberflus is 3-4-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Matt Eberflus is 4-4 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.·     

Bears Offense

  • The Bears are scoring 19.4 points per game, good for 23rd in the league.
  • Chicago is 32nd in the league in yards passing per game and first in yards rushing.
  • Justin Fields’ offense has scored 62 points over the past two games.
  • Per the Edge, Fields is second among quarterbacks in yards rushing per game.
  • Among running backs Khalil Herbert is 12th in yards rushing per game and David Montgomery is 29th. Montgomery is 25th in yards receiving per game at the position.
  • Darnell Mooney has at least five targets in each of the last six games. Mooney has had at least 50 yards receiving in each of the last five contests.
  • The acquisition of Chase Claypool gives the Bears a tall, contested catch-type wide receiver that compliments a high-end speedster like Darnell Mooney very well.
  • Expect Claypool to take some time getting acclimated to the new offense.
  • Velus Jones Jr. is not seeing consistent opportunities, but he exhibited a notable burst against Dallas last week during his three targets and two carries.
  • Cole Kmet has not breached 50 yards receiving in a game this season and only has more than three targets in one contest.

 

Dolphins Defense

  • The Dolphins have allowed 24 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing per game and the sixth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Miami has given up the tenth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and the eighth-most to those lined up in the slot.

The Dolphins Offense vs. Bears Defense

Miami has an average offensive line with an elite left tackle in Terron Armstead. The Bears have a bottom-tier front that lost Robert Quinn two weeks ago. Miami has a moderate advantage in the trenches. Former Bears linebacker Roquan Smith is a major loss for Chicago in run defense and in space, giving Miami a wider advantage in those two areas.

The Bears’ secondary is pretty banged up entering this contest. That’s not a good thing when Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are headed to town.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Dolphins are 4-4 against the spread this season.
  • The Dolphins are 3-5 on overs this season.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is 18-10-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is 11-18 on overs in his career.
  • Mike McDaniel is 4-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Mike McDaniel is 3-5 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach. 

Dolphins Offense

  • The Dolphins are scoring 22.3 points per game, good for 16th in the league.
  • Miami is third in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
  • Our Pro Scouting Department has Tua Tagovailoa ranked eighth in their quarterback power rankings.
  • Our Pro Scouting Department has ranked Tyreek Hill as the league’s best wide receiver and Jaylen Waddle as the fifth.
  • Per the Edge, Raheem Mostert has at least 14 carries in each of the last five games, and he’s exceeded 60 yards rushing in four of those five. He has 14 targets over that five-game stretch.
  • Tyreek Hill leads the league in receptions (69), yards receiving (961), is third in target share (32.9%), and is seventh in air yards share (42.9%).
  • Jaylen Waddle is 11th in the league in receptions (42) and fourth in yards receiving (727). Waddle is second on the Dolphins in target share (21.9%) and air yards share (25.8%).
  • Mike Gesicki has 18 targets and three touchdown receptions over the last three games.

Bears Defense

  • The Bears have allowed 22.6 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Bears have allowed the fifth-most yards rushing per game and the 18th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Chicago has given up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Bears have allowed the sixth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.

This Is What You’re Betting on in Bears vs. Dolphins

A bet on the Bears is suddenly a bet on Justin Fields’ offense. Fields has been very good the past two weeks, showcasing his dynamic skill set in two tough matchups against the Patriots and Cowboys. He’s supported by one of the best running back duos in the league in David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. The addition of Chase Claypool gives Chicago a far more well-rounded group of pass-catchers, but it will likely take some time for him to get fully acclimated in the offense. If you’re betting on the Bears, you are primarily betting on their running game to continue driving this offense. Your biggest concern with a Bears bet is that Chicago’s defense has lost two of its four best players due to trade. Now it gets a matchup nightmare in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle with a banged-up secondary and a below average pass rush.

A bet on the Dolphins starts as a bet on Miami’s extremely high ceiling on offense. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the best wide receiver duo in the league. There are very few wide receivers on the planet with game-breaking speed and a well-rounded overall skill set. Miami has two of them. Miami has moderate trench advantages on both sides of the ball in this game, and they get a Bears’ defense that has recently traded two of its four best players. If Tua Tagovailoa plays well while limiting turnovers, there is a clear path to Miami winning this game by at least a score. If you’re a Dolphins bettor your biggest concern here is that Chicago’s defense steps up despite losing Roquan Smith this week, while the Bears’ run game is effective enough to keep this game close.

Awards Market Ramifications: Tyreek Hill is an Offensive Player of the Year contender. Mike McDaniel is a Coach of the Year contender.

Winner/Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Miami in my winner pools, and I expect to be a little higher than consensus on them in my confidence pool rankings.

Spread Pool: I won’t finalize until later in the week, but Miami -4.5 is among my considerations in ATS tournaments.

Survivor Pool: Miami is a contrarian survivor pool option this week.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 27-13

Props 2022: 26-15

WATCH MORE: Bears are Finally Figuring Out How to Use Justin Fields

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