Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)
Opening Spread: Eagles -11
Opening Game Total: 43.5
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (27.25), Steelers (16.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -11.
- This line has moved slightly down to Eagles -10.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Eagles -10.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest Eagles -10.5.
- This total opened at 43.5 points.
- This total remains at 43.5 points.
Eagles: IR: Edge Derek Barnett; Questionable: Edge Brandon Graham.
Steelers: IR: Edge T.J. Watt; Questionable: DL Larry Ogunjobi, CB Levi Wallace.
The Eagles Offense vs. Steelers Defense
The Eagles have a top-five caliber offensive line. Until T.J. Watt returns, I’m treating the Steelers’ front as an average unit with a high-end interior. The Eagles are one of the few teams that are well-equipped to mitigate a high-end interior like Pittsburgh’s. The Eagles have a minor edge in the trenches from a macro sense, though I’m treating the interior battle as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 4-2 against the spread this season.
- The Eagles are 3-3 on overs this season.
- Jalen Hurts is 17-18-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jalen Hurts is 17-19 on overs in his career.
- Nick Sirianni is 12-10-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nick Sirianni is 13-10 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Eagles are scoring 26.8 points per game, good for fourth in the league.
- Philadelphia is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among quarterbacks Jalen Hurts is fourth in yards rushing per game.
- Miles Sanders is seventh among running backs in yards rushing per game.
- A.J. Brown is seventh in the league in target share (30.5%) and he’s sixth in air yards share (40.9%).
- DeVonta Smith is 23rd in the league in target share (24.7%) and 25th in air yards share (32.1%).
- Among tight ends Dallas Goedert is seventh in target share (19.5%) but 24th in air yards share (10.2%).
- Per TruMedia, despite already having his bye, Dallas Goedert leads all tight ends in yards after the catch with 284. That figure is good for seventh overall in the league.
- DeVonta Smith has played 305 snaps on the perimeter and 78 in the slot.
- A.J. Brown has played 238 snaps on the perimeter and 104 in the slot.
- The Steelers have allowed 23.1 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Steelers have allowed the 12th-most yards rushing per game and the 15th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Pittsburgh has allowed the most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers and the most to slot receivers.
- The Steelers have allowed the 26th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Steelers Offense vs. Eagles Defense
The rich got richer when the Eagles traded for Bears edge Robert Quinn this week. That move might make the Eagles’ top-five front the best in the league. The addition of Quinn gives the Eagles a complete front with seven players capable of making an impact as pass rushers. They face an improving, but still bottom-tier, Steelers’ offensive line this week. The Eagles’ front has a potentially game-derailing edge against Pittsburgh’s offensive line.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Steelers are 3-3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Steelers are 2-5 on overs this season.
- Kenny Pickett is 2-2 against the spread in his career.
- Kenny Pickett is 1-3 on overs in his career.
- Mike Tomlin is 126-117-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Tomlin is 108-137-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Steelers are scoring 15.3 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Pittsburgh is 25th in the league in yards passing per game and 27th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Kenny Pickett has thrown seven interceptions in his first four games. He’s thrown three interceptions in two of those contests.
- Pickett has also faced three top ten defenses in terms of points allowed per game. The Eagles will be the fourth.
- From an observational standpoint, Pickett began his professional career behind a bottom-tier offensive line with a pretty brutal schedule stretch. The turnovers are definitely a problem, but Pickett’s play-extending abilities have been an asset, and I’ve seen some positives in his game.
- That said, a road game in Philadelphia is just as brutal of a matchup as his trip to Buffalo.
- Najee Harris has seen double-digit carries in every game this season, but his single-game high is 74 yards rushing so far.
- In the three games that Kenny Pickett has started, Diontae Johnson has 13, 7, and 10 targets.
- In the three games that Kenny Pickett has started, Chase Claypool has between seven and nine targets per game.
- In the four games that Kenny Pickett has played in, George Pickens has had eight targets three times and six once.
- Pat Freiermuth has missed one of the four games that Kenny Pickett has played in. Freiermuth has seen nine targets in two of those games with Pickett.
- The Eagles have allowed 17.5 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the 19th-most yards rushing per game and the 24th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Philadelphia has given up the 24th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Eagles have allowed the 21st-most yards receiving to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Eagles vs. Steelers
The Eagles have the best record and the best roster in football. The Eagles have top-five lines on both sides of the ball, a top ten secondary, and a top ten group of pass-catchers. Going into the season I had them with the easiest schedule in the league. As long as Jalen Hurts continues to play consistent football, the Eagles are right there with the Bills and Chiefs as the best teams in the league. The Eagles are coming off their bye, which I’m not entirely sure is a positive given how well they were playing.
A bet on the Eagles is a bet on an elite roster that has a potentially game-breaking trench advantage on defense. Not only does Philadelphia’s front have that significant edge, but it will be facing a struggling rookie quarterback making his fourth NFL start. If the Eagles jump out to an early lead, they have the tools to blow the doors off a team like Pittsburgh, just like Buffalo did. My biggest concern with an Eagles bet is that their offense comes out a little flat after their bye week. Pittsburgh’s defense has been far more inconsistent than we’ve grown accustomed to this century, but they’ve still put together several strong efforts this season.
A bet on the Steelers is built on Pittsburgh’s defense at least meeting expectations against an elite opponent in this contest. Another path for Steelers bettors is that Kenny Pickett plays well enough to keep this game within reach of a late back door cover. With a well-coached team like Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, the strong defensive effort isn’t out of the question. My biggest concern with a Steelers bet is that their struggling offense might actually be facing their toughest test of the season this week.
Awards Market Ramifications: Nick Sirianni is the Coach of the Year favorite. Jalen Hurts is an MVP contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be taking the Eagles in all winner pools, and they will be among my top two options in confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m considering taking the Eagles side in one of my ATS tournament entries
Survivor Pool: The Eagles are a strong option in survivor pools this week. Regardless of who you’re taking in your survivor pools this week, plan ahead.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13