Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5)
Opening Spread: Saints +2
Opening Game Total: 48
Opening Team Totals: Saints (23), Raiders (25)
The Line Report
- This line opened as Saints +2.
- This line has moved down to Saints +1.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Saints +1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Saints +1.5.
- This total opened at 48 points.
- This total has moved down to 47.5 points.
Saints: IR: LT Trevor Penning, CB Bradley Roby, CB P.J. Williams; Out: WR Michael Thomas, WR Jarvis Landry; Questionable: TE Adam Trautman, TE Juwan Johnson, LG Andrus Peat, DT David Onyemata, CB Marshon Lattimore, CB Paulson Adebo
Raiders: Questionable: WR Davante Adams, WR Mack Hollins, TE Darren Waller, LB Divine Deablo, LB Jayon Brown, S Jonathan Abram
The Saints Offense vs. Raiders Defense
New Orleans has a fringe top-ten caliber offensive line. The Raiders have a middle-of-the-pack type of front, but they have a high-end edge duo in Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. This trench matchup is a relative draw, but Saints left tackle James Hurst has his hands full this week.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Saints are 2-5 against the spread this season.
- The Saints are 5-2 on overs this season.
- Andy Dalton is 79-71-6 against the spread in his career.
- Andy Dalton is 81-74-1 on overs in his career.
- Dennis Allen is 16-26-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Dennis Allen is 21-21-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Saints are scoring 25 points per game, good for seventh in the league.
- New Orleans is eighth in the league in yards passing per game and eighth in yards rushing.
- Andy Dalton will be starting this contest.
- Taysom Hill has had two spike games as a runner, including one massive output where he finished with 112 yards rushing and three touchdowns on nine carries against Seattle.
- Per the Edge, Alvin Kamara has had double-digit carries with a range of six-to-nine targets in each of the last four games.
- Chris Olave is 15th in the league in target share (26.7%) and third in air yards share (44.4%). Despite missing a game Olave is tied for tenth in the league in yards receiving.
- Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry will be sidelined again, which means Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith will be filling in again.
- Juwan Johnson is the Saints’ pass-catching tight end with a 12.8% target share.
- Per TruMedia, Chris Olave has played 196 snaps on the perimeter and 66 in the slot.
- In Jarvis Landry’s absence, Tre’Quan Smith has played 84 snaps on the perimeter and 105 in the slot.
- The Raiders have allowed 25 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 22nd-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Las Vegas has given up the tenth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Las Vegas has given up the third-most PPR points per game to slot receivers this year.
- The Raiders have allowed the 13th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and the fourth-most to those lined up in the slot.
The Raiders Offense vs. Saints Defense
The Raiders’ offensive line is a slightly below average unit. The Saints’ surging front is a top-ten caliber unit. New Orleans has a moderate advantage in the trenches this week.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 3-3 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 4-1-1 on overs this season.
- Derek Carr is 64-67-2 against the spread in his career.
- Derek Carr is 70-58-5 on overs in his career.
- Josh McDaniels is 16-18 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Josh McDaniels is 18-15-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Raiders are scoring 27.2 points per game, good for third in the league.
- Las Vegas is 12th in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Josh Jacobs is third in the league in yards rushing, even though the Raiders have already had their bye.
- Davante Adams is third in the league in target share (31.8%) and fifth in air yards share (42.1%).
- Hunter Renfrow has missed two contests and has only exceeded four receptions once in the four games that he was active.
- Darren Waller has also missed two contests this season. In his four active games he’s had a range of five to eight targets while only exceeding 50 yards receiving once.
- Per TruMedia, Davante Adams has played 278 snaps on the perimeter and 77 in the slot.
- Mack Hollins has played 293 snaps on the perimeter and 45 in the slot.
- Hunter Renfrow has played 13 snaps on the perimeter and 134 in the slot.
- The Saints have allowed 28.6 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Saints have allowed the tenth-most yards rushing per game and the second-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New Orleans has given up the seventh-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- New Orleans has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers this year.
- The Saints have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Saints vs. Raiders
A bet on the Raiders is a bet on a 2-4 team that has lost four one-score games to teams that had winning records in 2021. On a baseline level, we should be treating the Raiders as more of a playoff contender than a 2-4 team. Las Vegas is a balanced offense from a talent perspective, as Derek Carr can shred you through the air with a high-quality skill group. Then comes Josh Jacobs, who is third in the league in yards rushing. If you’re betting on the Raiders, your best-case scenario is that Vegas plays another strong game on offense. That will put its high-end edge duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones in a position to close out this game late. Your biggest concern with a Raiders bet is that the Saints’ front four gives the Raiders’ offense consistent issues in both phases.
A bet on the Saints is a bet on a talented, but freefalling, 2-5 team. New Orleans has lost four of its last five games by eight points or less. It’s also breached 20 points in each of its last four games, all of which Andy Dalton has played in. If you’re betting on the Saints, you’re betting on another solid offensive effort despite New Orleans’ injuries on offense. If you’re betting on the Saints, their home field advantage paired with their defensive front’s advantage is your clearest path to a Saints win. New Orleans has a number of impact players either already ruled out or still on the injury report. New Orleans’ injury situation, its quarterback volatility, and the ceiling of the Raiders’ offense are your biggest concerns with a Saints bet.
I went into this contest expecting to like the over while looking for mini-correlation options in DFS. After doing a deep dive into both of these teams, I’m leaning more towards a narrow under. I’m not going to directly bet the total on this game, but I’ll now have less exposure to this contest in DFS than I was originally planning.
Awards Market Ramifications: Chris Olave is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: This is a coin flip type game as far as the spread is concerned, so I’ll have a little exposure to both teams in winner pools. That said, I lean towards the Raiders here, and I’ll have them a little above consensus in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m considering the Raiders in at least one of my ATS entries this week.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
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