Analysis
10/29/22
8 min read
NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Giants vs. Seahawks
New York Giants (6-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
Opening Spread: Seahawks -2.5.
Opening Game Total: 46.5.
Team Totals: Seahawks (24.5), Giants (22).
Weather: Outdoors, solid chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Seahawks -2.5.
- This line has moved to Seahawks -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick'Em has the Seahawks -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Seahawks -3.
- This total opened at 46.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 45.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Seahawks: IR: S Jamal Adams. Questionable: WR D.K. Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett, RG Gabe Jackson, Edge Darrell Taylor.
Giants: IR: WR Sterling Shepard, Edge Azeez Ojulari, CB Aaron Robinson. Out: TE Daniel Bellinger, LG Ben Bredeson, RT Evan Neal, Edge Oshane Ximines. Questionable: DL Leonard Williams.
The Seahawks Offense vs. the Giants Defense
The Seahawks offensive line has been one of the biggest surprises of the season to date. They have been a rock-solid, right-in-the-middle-of-the-pack unit this season. The Giants front four is a top-ten caliber unit that is the strength of the team. The Giants front has a slight edge against the Seahawks better than expected offensive line.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Seahawks are 4-3 against the spread this season.
- The Seahawks are 4-3 on overs this season.
- Geno Smith is 30-21-2 against the spread in his career.
- Geno Smith is 26-26-1 on overs in his career.
- Pete Carrol is 106-87-7 against the spread in his last 200 games as a head coach.
- Pete Carrol is 100-97-3 on overs in his last 200 games as a head coach.
Seahawks Offense
- The Seahawks are scoring 26.1 points per game, good for fifth in the league.
- Seattle is 15th in the league in yards passing per game and tenth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Kenneth Walker is averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
- Tyler Lockett leads the Seahawks in target share (25.4%) and air yards share (35%).
- DK Metcalf is right behind Lockett in target share (24.9%), and air yards share (34.1%).
- Marquise Goodwin caught four balls for 67 yards receiving and two touchdowns last week.
- Noah Fant has a 12.4% target share, and Will Dissly has a 9.6% target share.
- Per TruMedia, Noah Fant has played 149 snaps as an inline tight end, 25 on the perimeter, and 52 in the slot.
- Will Dissly has played 200 snaps as an inline tight end, 13 on the perimeter and 35 in the slot.
Giants Defense
- The Giants have allowed 18.6 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the fifth-most yards rushing per game and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the 26th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Giants have allowed the fourth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Giants have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Giants Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
The Giants offensive line has been gradually improving, but they will be down two starters in this contest which drives this unit into below-average territory. Fortunately for the Giants, Seattle has a bottom-tier front four. Consider this trench matchup to be a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Giants are 6-1 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 2-5 on overs this season.
- Daniel Jones is 25-20 against the spread in his career.
- Daniel Jones is 17-26-2 on overs in his career.
- Brian Daboll is 6-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brian Daboll is 2-5 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Giants Offense
- The Giants are scoring 21.4 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- New York is 30th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among quarterbacks, Daniel Jones is third in yards rushing with 343.
- Saquon Barkley is second in the league with 726 yards rushing. Among running backs, Barkley is tenth in yards receiving per game.
- Wan'Dale Robinson caught six-of-eight targets for 50 yards receiving last week against the Jaguars.
- Darius Slayton has had 16 total targets over the last three games. Slayton has an intriguing matchup in this contest.
- With Daniel Bellinger sidelined, Chris Myarick looks to be the next man up at tight end.
Seahawks Defense
- The Seahawks have allowed 26.6 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Per The Edge, Kyler Murray ran for 100 yards on ten carries against the Seahawks earlier this year. Seattle also held Marcus Mariota to four yards rushing, and a score on seven carries this year.
- The Seahawks have allowed the eighth-most yards rushing per game and the second-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Seattle has given up the 27th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Seahawks have allowed the second-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You're Betting On in Giants vs. Seahawks
This is a matchup between two of the biggest overachieving teams to this point in the season. The Giants are traveling cross-country after playing in Jacksonville last week.
If you're betting on the Seahawks, it's in your best interest to get the latest injury updates on D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Both players are being framed as game-time decisions, and their absence would radically alter Seattle's ceiling on offense. Geno Smith has exceeded everyone's expectations. If you're betting on the Seahawks, you're betting on Smith to continue playing the best football of his professional career. At full strength, the Seahawks have a pretty strong skill group.
On defense, Seattle has strung together a number of scrappy performances over the last few seasons despite their lack of elite talent. If you're betting on the Seahawks here, you're betting on their defense to limit a Giants offense that lacks a lot of firepower outside of Saquon Barkley. A bet on Seattle can be a regression bet against the Giants. Your biggest concern with a Seahawks bet, apart from anything injury related, is that they regress themselves.
If you're betting on the Giants in this contest, you are betting on a team that has six one-score victories this season. New York has been well coached, they've played very good defense, and while their offense has lacked ceiling, they have been very good late in games while limiting turnovers. If you're betting on the Giants in this spot, you are betting on all of those factors to continue for at least one more week.
I have a few concerns with a Giants bet. The first is regression. The second is that the Giants are playing their second road game in a row, and this one involves a coast-to-coast trip. The third is that they will be down two starters on their offensive line. While Seattle doesn't have a dominant front that can derail games, Daniel Jones has had major problems in his career when he's had pass protection issues.
Giants vs. Seahawks Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: This game has major ramifications in the Comeback Player of the Year market, as Saquon Barkley and Geno Smith are the two favorites in that race. Tariq Woolen is a Defensive Rookie of the Year contender, and Kenneth Walker is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will have a little exposure to the Giants in winner pools, but I'm more interested in Seattle now than I was earlier in the week I will treat this as a coin-flip game in my confidence rankings.
Spread Pool: The Giants +3.5 sounds like a good value bet in a number of ways against a very beatable Seahawks team However, the Giants' injuries on their offensive line, paired with this being their second road game in a row, has me less interested in this game than I was earlier this week If D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett miss this contest, I will take the Giants in at least one ATS tournament If one of Metcalf or Lockett miss, I might still take the Giants in a tournament entry.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.Ryan's recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
WATCH MORE: Seahawks rookie CB Tariq Woolen is the next man up in the storied tradition of Seattle's big cornerbacks.
