Betting

10/28/22

9 min read

NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Cardinals vs. Vikings

Cardinals vs. Vikings

Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-1)

Opening Spread: Vikings -3.5

Opening Game Total: 49

Opening Team Totals: Vikings (26.25), Cardinals (22.75)

Weather: Dome

The Line Report

  • This line opened between Vikings -3.5 to Vikings -4.
  • This line has moved to Vikings -3.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Vikings -3.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Vikings -3.5.
  • This total opened between 48.5 and 49 points.
  • This total has moved down to 47.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Vikings: IR: S Lewis Cine

Cardinals: IR: WR Marquise Brown, G Justin Pugh; Questionable: RB James Conner, LT D.J. Humphries, LG Max Garcia, C Rodney Hudson, Edge Dennis Gardeck, S Jalen Thompson, K Matt Prater

The Vikings Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

Minnesota’s offensive line has been better than I expected this season. I now have them as a fringe top-ten unit. Arizona has a bottom tier front four. The Vikings' offensive line has a moderate, macro trench advantage in this contest.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Vikings are 2-4 against the spread this season.
  • The Vikings are 3-3 on overs this season.
  • Kirk Cousins is 65-65-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Cousins is 76-54-1 on overs in his career.
  • Kevin O’Connell is 2-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • O’Connell is 3-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Vikings Offense

  • The Vikings are scoring 23.2 points per game, good for 13th in the league.
  • Minnesota is 11th in the league in yards passing per game and 25th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Dalvin Cook has not yet breached 100 yards rushing in a game this season. However, in his six games he has breached 90 yards rushing three times and 75 yards rushing five times.
  • In his six games this season, Justin Jefferson has double-digit targets in four of them and at least eight in five of them. Jefferson has breached 100 yards receiving four times this season.
  • Adam Thielen has had between seven and nine targets in five of his six games this season. Thielen has breached 50 yards receiving three times this year.
  • In his last five games Irv Smith has at least four targets and as many as eight. Smith has not yet breached 50 yards receiving in a game yet this season.
  • Per TruMedia, Irv Smith has played 133 snaps as an in-line tight end, 35 on the perimeter, and 36 in the slot.

Cardinals Defense

  • The Cardinals have allowed 25.1 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Cardinals have given up the fourth-fewest yards rushing per game and the tenth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Arizona has given up the 16th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Cardinals have allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Cardinals have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and the most to tight ends lined up in the slot.
  • Keep in mind that Arizona has faced Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Tyler Higbee, and Dallas Goedert this season. 

The Cardinals Offense vs. Vikings Defense

Now that they are down guard Justin Pugh, Arizona has a below average offensive line. The Vikings have a fringe top-ten-caliber front four. The Vikings' pass rush has an advantage in this contest, though Kyler Murray’s evasion abilities are an asset for the Cardinals in pass protection. It’s also worth noting that Arizona has multiple starting linemen on the injury report. If some of those players miss this contest, Minnesota’s edge in the trenches could grow. The final injury status of left tackle D.J. Humphries and center Rodney Hudson are of particular interest.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Cardinals are 4-3 against the spread this season.
  • The Cardinals are 2-4-1 on overs this season.
  • Kyler Murray is 28-23-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Murray is 22-29-2 on overs in his career.
  • Kliff Kingsbury is 30-24-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Kingsbury is 24-30-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Cardinals Offense

  • The Cardinals are scoring 22.3 points per game, good for 15th in the league.
  • Arizona is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Kyler Murray is sixth among quarterbacks in yards rushing per game.
  • With James Conner and Darrell Williams sidelined the last two weeks, Eno Benjamin has taken on a near-full role in the Cardinals' backfield. Rookie runner Keaonty Ingram saw more opportunities on the short week against the Saints than he did in the previous contest against Seattle.
  • DeAndre Hopkins returned from suspension last week to catch 10-of-14 targets for 103 yards receiving.
  • After three games with at least five targets, Rondale Moore only saw two against the Saints last week. If you see somewhere that Moore had 114 yards receiving against the Vikings last year, 77 of those yards came on a play that Murray extended where Minnesota’s secondary lost Moore.
  • Zach Ertz is fifth among tight ends with a 20.3% target share and he’s fourth with a 22% air yards share.
  • Per TruMedia, Ertz has played 147 snaps as an in-line tight end, 212 in the slot, and 43 on the perimeter.

Vikings Defense

  • The Vikings have allowed 19.7 points per game, which is 12th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Vikings have allowed the 25th-most yards rushing and the eighth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Minnesota has given up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Vikings have allowed the eighth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Vikings have allowed the second-most yards receiving to tight ends lined up in the slot this season.

This Is What You’re Betting on in Vikings vs. Cardinals

When these two teams played last season, the Cardinals beat the Vikings in Arizona 34-33, as Vikings kicker Greg Joseph missed a potential game-winning 37-yard field goal as time expired. If the season ended today the Vikings would be the No. 2 seed in the NFC, while Arizona is in the thick of the Wild Card race at 3-4. The Vikings are coming off their bye, while Arizona is coming off a long week, having most recently played the Saints on Thursday Night Football.

Not to slander Kirk Cousins, as he’d start on half the teams in the league, but his 65-65-1 ATS record really depicts who Cousins is for bettors. If we get the good version of Cousins in this contest, this game could easily breach 60 total points. If we get the bad version of Cousins, Minnesota could outright lose this game at home. From a pure talent perspective, the Vikings have a better roster than Arizona at running back, wide receiver, and both lines. You could even argue that the Vikings have a better secondary than the Cardinals. That leaves Arizona with a better quarterback, tight end, and linebacker group.

If you’re betting on the Vikings, you’re getting an advantage in both trenches, and with the Vikings' wide receivers vs. the Cardinals' cornerbacks. In a best-case scenario for Vikings bettors Minnesota’s pass rush derails the Cardinals' offense while Arizona’s secondary can’t handle the Vikings' high-end group of pass catchers. Your biggest concern as a Vikings bettor is that the inconsistent version of Cousins shows up as we already discussed. The other is Kyler Murray flat out carries his team past Minnesota. Murray threw for 400 yards against the Vikings last year. A final thought on a Vikings bet is that, despite being 5-1, I don’t think Minnesota has played a complete football game yet this season where both their offense and defense has a near ceiling game.

A bet on the Cardinals is always a bet on Murray. Minnesota has a better roster than Arizona, and having been to a Vikings' home game, they have a genuine home field advantage as far as crowd noise is concerned. Arizona has a disadvantage in both trenches and their secondary could be in trouble against the Vikings' wide receivers. Then you have to factor in Dalvin Cook, who ran for 131 yards against the Cardinals last year. If you’re betting on the Cardinals, you’re either betting against Cousins or on Murray.

This is an important game to get right if you’re playing DFS this week. I’m surprised that the total moved down here. The Vikings' pass rush against the Cardinals' injury-ravaged offensive line creates a path to a potential under in this contest, or more specifically the Cardinals not reaching their team total. On the Vikings' side, they’ll need a flat performance on offense to not exceed their 26.25 game total. Keep in mind that Arizona gave up 34 points to Andy Dalton’s injury-ravaged Saints last week.

Awards Market Ramifications: Kevin O’Connell is a Coach of the Year candidate. Justin Jefferson is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Vikings in most of my winner pools, I’ll take the Cardinals as a small differentiator in one. I expect to be right around consensus with this game in confidence pool rankings.

Spread Pool: If D.J. Humphries and Rodney Hudson miss this contest, I’m going to bet on Minnesota. I can get to a Minnesota cover pretty easily from a logic standpoint in this contest. I can get to a Cardinals cover as well but the paths are far more narrow on that side.

Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 24-11

Props 2022: 23-13

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