Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
Opening Spread: 49ers +3.
Opening Game Total: 46.5.
Opening Team Totals: 49ers (21.75), Chiefs (24.75).
Weather: Outdoors, some potential wind concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as 49ers +3.
- This line has moved down to 49ers +2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the 49ers +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the 49ers +2.5.
- This total opened between 46 and 46.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 47.5 points.
49ers: IR: DT Javon Kinlaw. Questionable: LT Trent Williams, RT Mike McGlinchey, Edge Nick Bosa, Edge Samson Ebukam, DT Arik Armstead, CB Charvarius Ward, S Jimmie Ward, S Talanoa Hufanga.
Chiefs: IR: CB Trent McDuffie. Questionable: LG Joe Thuney, CB Rashad Fenton.
The 49ers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
San Francisco’s elite left tackle Trent Williams hopes to return to action against Kansas City. If Williams is in, consider the 49ers offensive line a solid, middle-of-the-pack unit. If Williams misses this contest, San Francisco’s offensive line is a slightly below average unit. Whether Williams plays or not, the 49ers interior offensive line has struggled this season. Chiefs star defensive tackle Chris Jones has a great matchup in this contest. In general, I have the Chiefs front ranked exactly 10th. If Williams misses this contest, Kansas City’s defense has a macro edge in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The 49ers are 3-3 against the spread this season.
- The 49ers are 1-5 on overs this season.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is 41-26-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is 34-32-2 on overs in his career.
- Kyle Shanahan is 42-44-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kyle Shanahan is 42-43-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The 49ers are scoring 20.3 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- San Francisco is 22nd in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, in games that the 49ers have won, Jeff Wilson has at least 17 carries and 74 yards rushing in each of them. In a negative game script in Atlanta last week, Wilson only had seven carries for 25 yards rushing.
- Deebo Samuel has 27 receptions for 345 yards receiving and two receiving touchdowns this season. Samuel has a 27.3% target share and a 20.4% air yards share.
- Brandon Aiyuk has 25 receptions for 320 yards receiving and three receiving touchdowns. Aiyuk has a 21% target shar with a 32.2% air yards share.
- In four games George Kittle has 19 receptions for 182 yards receiving with no touchdowns. Kittle has a 20% target share with an 11.3% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Deebo Samuel has played 187 snaps on the perimeter and 55 in the slot.
- Brandon Aiyuk has played 257 snaps on the perimeter and 65 in the slot.
- George Kittle has played 137 snaps as an inline tight end, 10 on the perimeter, and 53 in the slot.
- The Chiefs have allowed 24.8 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the 29th most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Kansas City has given up the ninth most yards receiving per game on the second most receptions per game to wide receivers this year.
- Kansas City has given up the eighth most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers and the fourth most to wide receivers in the slot.
- The Chiefs have allowed the 23rd most yards receiving per game on the 22nd most receptions per game to tight ends this season.
The Chiefs Offense vs. 49ers Defense
The Chiefs have a top-five caliber offensive line, with arguably the league’s best interior. If 49ers Edge Nick Bosa returns to action, San Francisco has a top-five front four. However, with 49ers defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw on IR, this group won’t be at full strength regardless of Bosa’s status. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw, where Bosa will be an individual matchup problem for either Chiefs offensive tackle. Patrick Mahomes’ play-extending abilities are a positive for Kansas City’s ability to manage pressure.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chiefs are 2-4 against the spread this season.
- The Chiefs are 3-3 on overs this season.
- Patrick Mahomes is 36-31-2 against the spread in his career.
- Patrick Mahomes is 37-31-1 on overs in his career.
- Andy Reid is 192-160-7 against the spread since the year 2000.
- Andy Reid is 176-172-11 on overs since the year 2000.
- The Chiefs are scoring 29.8 points per game, which is the best in the league.
- Kansas City is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing.
- Our Pro Scouting Department has Patrick Mahomes ranked second in their in-season quarterback rankings.
- Per the Edge, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has only had double-digit carries once this season.
- Kansas City wide receivers have collectively breached 70 yards receiving in a game five times this year. JuJu Smith-Schuster has done it three times, while Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have each done it once.
- Travis Kelce leads all pass catchers with seven receiving touchdowns. Among tight ends Travis Kelce is second with a 24.1% target share and third with a 25.9% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Travis Kelce has played 102 snaps as an inline tight end, 88 on the perimeter, and 111 in the slot.
- The 49ers have allowed 14.8 points per game, which is second in the league.
- Our Pro Scouting Department has the 49ers ranked as the league’s fourth best defense.
- Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the second fewest yards rushing per game and the fifth fewest yards receiving per game to running backs.
- San Francisco has given up the 22nd most yards receiving per game on the 25th most receptions per game to wide receivers this year.
- The 49ers have allowed the second fewest yards receiving per game on the 24th most receptions per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in 49ers vs. Chiefs
The last time Patrick Mahomes faced the 49ers his Chiefs beat them 31-20 in the Super Bowl to close out the 2019-2020 season. While that game was nearly three years ago, I have four core takeaways from that contest that apply to my stance on this one. The first is that Tyreek Hill had 16 targets in that contest. While Hill is missed in every game the Chiefs play, he’s especially missed against difficult opponents. Running back Damien Williams had a significant game in both phases against the 49ers. I could see passes to running backs being a factor again for the Chiefs here. Patrick Mahomes played a good, but not great game where he had two interceptions. That’s a smart baseline expectation for this year’s encounter with the 49ers. On the San Francisco side, they have a more dangerous group of pass catchers now than they did in 2019.
This is a classic publicly backed, offense-driven road favorite against one of the league’s best defenses. Both teams are coming off a loss. San Francisco is coming off an injury-driven, semi-embarrassing defeat in Atlanta last week. The Chiefs lost to the Bills in a close contest. Both teams entered the season as contenders. Both teams are tied for the lead in their respective divisions. The Chiefs and 49ers have very equal stakes in this contest.
The Chiefs lack of difference-making skill position players outside of Travis Kelce was made very apparent during last week’s home loss to the Bills. I expect that to be a factor again this week against San Francisco’s stingy defense. When we’re betting on the Chiefs we’re always betting on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. My biggest concern with a Chiefs bet is that San Francisco is capable of reducing opportunities for Kansas City’s average collection of wide receivers and running backs, while the 49ers pass rush can narrow those opportunities even further. My favorite aspect of a Chiefs bet is that their front four, particularly their interior, could be a real problem for the 49ers here.
On the 49ers side of things, you need their defense to limit Mahomes’ options similar to how Buffalo did last week. Otherwise, you’re betting on Jimmy Garoppolo to beat Patrick Mahomes in a high-scoring affair. The 49ers pass catching trio of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle makes that outcome possible. But ultimately, the phrase “Jimmy Garoppolo outduels Patrick Mahomes in a shootout” is an outlier type of outcome. Kyle Shanahan’s ability to help his interior offensive line through play calling is a key factor here. Similarly, San Francisco’s still banged up defense’s ability to limit Patrick Mahomes is what will ultimately determine who wins this game.
Awards Market Ramifications: Patrick Mahomes is an MVP contender. Travis Kelce is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate. Nick Bosa is a fading Defensive Player of the Year contender having missed last week’s contest.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: The 49ers are an interesting differentiator option in large field winner pools. From a game theory standpoint, I’ll take San Francisco in at least one of my large field winner pools. In confidence pool rankings I expect to be lower than consensus on this contest, as I’ll have the Chiefs below the Cardinals in that format, as an example.
Spread Pool: From a sports betting perspective the 49ers are an interesting contrarian play, as sportsbooks are effectively inviting a Chiefs bet. From a pure football analysis perspective, the Chiefs have more ways to win this game than San Francisco does. That makes this one a pass for me ATS, where I will get my 49ers exposure as a contrarian selection in mid to large field winner pools.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools. Check this out if you want to plan ahead with the Chiefs and 49ers in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12
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