Betting
1/6/23
3 min read
NFL Week 18 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Saturday Slate
There are two NFL games this Saturday with major playoff implications. First up, MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes can lead his Chiefs to the AFC’s top seed with a win over rival Las Vegas. For the nightcap, the AFC South winner will be decided in Jacksonville, where Trevor Lawrence’s ascending Jaguars look to dethrone Mike Vrabel’s Titans.
Motivation is a major factor during the last week of the regular season. Be sure to check in with Chris Farley’s detailed breakdown on which teams are playing for what this week.
Chiefs (13-3) at Raiders (6-10)
- Opening Spread: Raiders +9.5
- Opening Game Total: 51.5
- Opening Team Totals: Raiders (21) Chiefs (30.5)
- Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Raiders +9.5
- This line remains at Raiders +9.5
- This total opened at 51.5 points
- This total has moved to 52.5 points
The Bottom Line
If the Chiefs win this contest, they will be the AFC’s top seed. Kansas City is a supremely motivated team heading into this matchup. Jarrett Stidham had a shocking performance against the 49ers last week, where he shredded San Francisco for 365 yards passing and three scores. Stidham doesn’t necessarily need a repeat performance for the Raiders to cover in this spot, but he’s going to have to play well for the second week in the row against a title contender. The Chiefs were giving up the fourth-most PPR points to slot receivers through the first ten weeks, and are surrendering the 20th-most since. I’d be much more enthusiastic about this bet if Derek Carr was the Raiders’ quarterback, but Hunter Renfrow has a very beatable 28.5 yards receiving line on DraftKings.
Titans (7-9) at Jaguars (8-8)
- Opening Spread: Jaguars -6.5
- Opening Game Total: 38.5
- Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (22.5) Titans (16)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jaguars -6.5
- This line has moved to Jaguars -5.5
- This total opened at 38.5 points
- This total has moved to 39.5 points
The Bottom Line
The winner of this contest wins the AFC South. The Jaguars have the far superior quarterback and the better overall roster, while the Titans have far more experience in playoff-type atmospheres. I will not bet this game directly against the spread, but I would lean towards the Titans' side in spread pools. While the Jaguars have the capacity to win with distance against Tennessee, that Titans +6.5 line was more than I expected in a high-pressure contest like this one. As of this writing Derrick Henry's yards rushing over is 89.5 on DraftKings (hat tip Josh Larky), while it’s already 92.5 on FanDuel. We can reasonably expect Henry to see significant volume in this game, which makes that 89.5 line one that’s reasonably obtainable that you can get at a value. I’m also on the lookout for Henry’s over on rushing attempts if it opens in the 20.5 range. Whether you bet on this game in some fashion or not, always line shop.
WATCH MORE: Titans-Jaguars Betting Preview
