Opening Spread: Packers -4.5
Opening Game Total: 48.5
Opening Team Totals: Packers (26.5) Lions (22)
Weather: Outdoors, cold temperatures expected
The Line Report
- This line opened as Packers -4.5
- This line remains at Packers -4.5
- This total opened at 48.5-points
- This total has moved to 48.5-points
Packers: Questionable: RB Aaron Jones, WR Christian Watson, LT David Bakhtiari, LG Elgton Jenkins, RT Josh Nijman.
Lions: Questionable: C Frank Ragnow, RG Evan Brown, S DeShon Elliott.
The Packers Offense vs. Lions Defense
The Packers have a fringe top-ten offensive line, with three starters currently listed on the injury report. The Lions’ defensive front is a slightly below-average unit on a week-to-week basis, but they have had a number of spike weeks this season, including last week against the Bears. The Packers’ offensive line has a moderate advantage in the trenches if they enter this contest at full strength.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Packers are 8-8 against the spread this season
- The Packers are 8-8 on overs this season
- Aaron Rodgers is 127-91-4 against the spread in his career
- Aaron Rodgers is 115-106-1 on overs in his career
- Matt LaFleur is 40-25 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Matt LaFleur is 31-34 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Packers are scoring 22.1 points per game, good for 14th in the league
- Green Bay is 19th in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing
- The Packers are passing on 60% of their plays and running on 40% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Aaron Jones is tenth in the league in yards rushing with 1,073 and he’s tenth among running backs in yards receiving with 375
- A.J. Dillon is 34th in the league in yards rushing with 737
- Allen Lazard has a 21.1% target share and a 30.9% air yards share this season
- Since his Week 10 explosion, Christian Watson has a 22% target share and a 42% air yards share
- Romeo Doubs has a 16% target share and an 18.9% air yards share this season
- Robert Tonyan breached 50 yards receiving last week for the first time since Week 6
- Per TruMedia, Allen Lazard has played 463 snaps on the perimeter and 259 in the slot
- Christian Watson has played 301 snaps on the perimeter and 133 in the slot
- Romeo Doubs has played 387 snaps on the perimeter and 92 in the slot
- Robert Tonyan has played 299 snaps as an inline tight end, 74 on the perimeter, and 148 in the slot
- The Lions have allowed 25.7 points per game, which is 29th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Lions have allowed the 11th-most yards rushing per game and the fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Detroit has given up the second-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Detroit has given up the second-most PPR points per game to slot receivers
- The Lions have allowed the 13th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Lions have allowed the most PPR points per game to inline tight ends
The Lions Offense vs. Packers Defense
I have the Lions tiered as a top-five offensive line. Without Edge Rashan Gary, I have the Packers’ defensive front tiered toward the back of the league average. The Lions’ offensive line has a moderate advantage in the trenches against Green Bay.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Lions are 11-5 against the spread this season
- The Lions are 10-6 on overs this season
- Jared Goff is 54-43-2 against the spread in his career
- Jared Goff is 49-50 on overs in his career
- Dan Campbell is 26-19 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Dan Campbell is 22-23 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Lions are scoring 27.1 points per game, which is fifth in the league
- Detroit is eighth in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing
- The Lions are passing on 60% of their plays and running on 40% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Jamaal Williams is 11th in the league in yards rushing with 994 and he’s the leader in rushing touchdowns with 15 rushing touchdowns
- D’Andre Swift had double-digit carries for the first time last week since December 4th
- Swift has four or more targets in each of his last six games
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is sixth in the league in receptions (100), 12th in yards receiving (1,112), and he’s 12th in target share (27.7%) with a 24.2% air yards share
- DJ Chark has 90 yards receiving or more in three of his last five games
- The Packers have allowed 21.9 points per game, which is 17th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the seventh-most yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Green Bay has given up the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Packers have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
If the Green Bay Packers win on Sunday night, they are in the playoffs. The Lions need the Seahawks to lose to the Rams earlier in the day, if that happens Detroit makes the playoffs with a win here. Back in Week nine, the Lions beat the Packers 15-9 in Detroit.
If You’re Betting on the Packers
Green Bay is on a four-game win streak, where they’ve won three of those contests by more than one score. The Packers have scored at least 24 points in each of those victories, but Aaron Rodgers has 240 yards passing or less in each of those contests. Rodgers is one of the greatest to ever play the game, but if he were to breach 300 yards passing in this contest, it would be the first time this year he’s reached that mark. If you’re betting on Green Bay, treat the Packers’ offense as an inconsistent group that still benefits from Aaron Rodgers’s historic play-making ability. The ceiling of this offense is higher if Christian Watson is a full go. We might not get a clear picture of his status until game day.
The Packers’ defense entered the season as one of the most talented groups in the league, and they’ve been playing up to their potential in recent weeks, holding three of their last four opponents below 20 points. The Lions have a very well-rounded offense, but the Packers’ high-end pass defense has the raw materials to limit Detroit in the air. Your biggest concerns as a Packers bettor are that the Lions have great success on the ground while Green Bay’s offense continues to be more of a middling group.
If You’re Betting on the Lions
The Lions are 7-2 over their last nine games. Their outstanding second half has been primarily driven by their well-balanced offense, which has breached 30 points in five of those nine contests. Detroit has an elite offensive line, a high-quality running game, and a talented group of pass catchers, and Jared Goff would be an upgrade at quarterback for many NFL teams. If you’re betting on the Lions, you are building that bet around their highly capable offense against a supremely talented Packers defense. Detroit has an advantage in the running game against Green Bay, though their passing attack could realistically be mitigated by the Packers’ high-performing secondary.
You have two primary concerns as a Lions bettor. The first is that if the Seahawks win earlier in the afternoon, the Lions will be playing for pride in this matchup. Motivation will significantly change Detroit in that outcome. The second is that Detroit faces Aaron Rodgers in a must-win game. Turnovers were the difference in the first meeting between these two teams, though Rodgers had a season-high 291 yards passing in that contest. The Lions’ defense is much better now than it was during the first month of the season, but if you’re betting on Detroit, you are concerned that Rodgers has his best game of the season in this spot.
Awards Market Ramifications: Aidan Hutchinson still has some chance in the Defensive Rookie of the Year race.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Packers in winner pools in an 8-2 type of ratio. I expect to be adjacent to consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I’m not going to bet on this game directly, but I would take Detroit +4.5 or pass here.
Survivor Pool: This contest should ideally be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 55-37