Betting
1/6/23
8 min read
NFL Week 18 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Jets vs. Dolphins
Jets (7-9) at Dolphins (8-8)
Opening Spread: Dolphins -2.5
Opening Game Total: 40.5
Opening Team Totals: Dolphins (21.5) Jets (19)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Dolphins -2.5
- This line moved all the way to Dolphins +1.5, before moving back to Dolphins -1.5
- This total opened at 40.5-points
- This total has moved to 38.5-points
Notable Injuries
Dolphins: Doubtful: QB Tua Tagovailoa. Questionable: WR Jaylen Waddle, LT Terron Armstead, Edge Bradley Chubb, CB Xavien Howard, S Eric Rowe.
Jets: Out: S Lamarcus Joyner. Questionable: QB Mike White, LT Duane Brown, RG Nate Herbig, RT George Fant, S Jordan Whitehead.
The Dolphins Offense vs. Jets Defense
I have the Dolphins' offensive line tiered toward the back end of the league average. I have the Jets' defensive front tiered as a top-10 unit, that’s on the border of being a top-five group. New York has a significant advantage in the trenches in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Dolphins are 8-8 against the spread this season
- The Dolphins are 8-8 on overs this season
- Teddy Bridgewater is 43-22 against the spread in his career
- Teddy Bridgewater is 25-38-2 on overs in his career
- Mike McDaniel is 8-8 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Mike McDaniel is 8-8 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Dolphins Offense
- The Dolphins are scoring 24.1 points per game, good for 10th in the league
- Miami is second in the league in yards passing per game and 27th in yards rushing
- The Dolphins are passing on 65% of their plays and running on 35% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Teddy Bridgewater has a chance to start for the Dolphins in this contest. If he doesn’t, Skylar Thompson gets the start
- Per the Edge, last week against the Patriots Raheem Mostert had nine carries and eight targets
- Jeff Wilson had 15 carries and seven targets against New England
- Tyreek Hill is second in the league in receptions (117), second in yards receiving (1,687), 13th in receiving touchdowns (7), third in target share (31%), and fifth in air yards share (41.4%)
- Jaylen Waddle has 70 receptions for 1,312 yards receiving and eight touchdowns with a 20.8% target share and a 28% air yards share
- Mike Gesicki has four receptions over his last six games
Jets Defense
- The Jets have allowed 19.1 points per game, which is fourth in the league
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 18th-most yards rushing per game and the 13th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- New York has given up the fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Jets have allowed the seventh-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Jets have allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends
The Jets Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
New York continues to deal with injuries at offensive tackle. That’s why I’ve pushed the Jets' offensive line into the slightly below-average range. I have the Dolphins’ defensive front tiered as a fringe top-10 unit. Miami’s front has a moderate advantage in the trenches against New York.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 8-8 against the spread this season
- The Jets are 5-11 on overs this season
- Mike White is 3-4 against the spread in his career
- Mike White is 5-2 on overs in his career
- Robert Saleh is 14-19 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Robert Saleh is 15-18 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Jets Offense
- The Jets are scoring 18.1 points per game, which is 27th in the league
- New York is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 25th in yards rushing
- The Jets are passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Mike White will be the Jets starting quarterback
- Jets running back opportunities last week in Seattle: Zonovan Knight had eight carries and three targets. Ty Johnson had eight carries and five targets. Michael Carter has one carry and three targets
- Per the Edge, Garrett Wilson has nine or more targets in four of his last five games
- After an encouraging run of 50 yards receiving or more in three of four games, Elijah Moore has been held below 20 yards receiving in each of his last two games
- Corey Davis has six or more targets in three of his last four games, but he’s only breached 50 yards receiving in one of those contests
- Tyler Conklin has six or more targets in three of his last five games
Dolphins Defense
- The Dolphins have allowed 24.6 points per game, which is 27th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the third-fewest yards rushing per game and the sixth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Miami has given up the 13th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Dolphins have allowed the eighth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Dolphins have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and the seventh-most to those in the slot
This Is What You’re Betting On
Back in Week 5 the Jets blew out the Dolphins 40-17 at MetLife Stadium. Teddy Bridgewater started that game, threw one pass before being injured, and Skylar Thompson took over. Teddy Bridgewater has some chance to play with a dislocated pinky finger on his throwing hand. If he can’t go, Thompson gets the start. The Dolphins need to beat the Jets while the Bills need to beat the Patriots for Miami to make the playoffs. The Jets have been eliminated from the playoffs.
If You’re Betting on the Dolphins
Whether it’s Bridgewater with an injured throwing hand or Thompson, I have no enthusiasm for the Dolphins' quarterback situation. That’s a problem because if you’ve bet on the 2022 Dolphins, that bet has been built around their dynamic offense. Given their quarterback volatility this week, you’re counting on Mike McDaniel to deploy an effective game plan against the Jets' premium defense. Given Miami’s reduced offense, I’d argue that a bet on the Dolphins should be built more as a bet against a Jets offense that has scored nine total points over their past two games. The Jets' offense has breached 20 points twice in their last 10 games. If you’re betting on Miami, you’re betting on their defense to hold New York below their 19-point team total.
If You’re Betting on the Jets
Any bet on the Jets has to be built around their high-performing defense. New York will have an advantage in the trenches while facing a backup quarterback. The Jets' ability to limit Miami’s injury-reduced offense is their most likely path to a win and a cover here. Your primary concern as a Jets bettor is that this has been the case for weeks, as their offense has scored 38 total points over their last four games. New York’s offense has more ceiling with Mike White, but his offense only managed to score six points during last week’s high-stakes contest in Seattle. You can’t build any Jets bet around their offense, and White should be considered a volatile option at quarterback.
Awards Market Ramifications: Sauce Gardner is the Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite. Garrett Wilson is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Tyreek Hill has an extremely narrow path in the Offensive Player of the Year race, where he’d have to essentially statistically surpass Justin Jefferson.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will be slightly Jets heavy, in a 6-to-4 type of ratio in winner pools. I will rank this contest in confidence pools as low as I realistically can.
Spread Pool: I will take the Jets or pass here ATS.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 55-37
WATCH MORE: What Should Jets Do at QB in 2023?
